One of the advantages that incumbent president has in a reelection campaign is the ability to manipulate the international news cycle to distract from domestic shortcomings. Some presidents have taken more advantage of this than others. I think it is quite arguable that if President Obama had cynically delayed a series of foreign policy successes so that they came during a Democratic administration and took attention away from the Republican’s Benghazi witch hunt, the outcome of the 2016 election might have been different. President Obama was not the sort of person to do that, but no such scruples may be expected from the current administration.
Trump has very few policy successes to his credit because he’s an inept negotiator, but there is one area that he has at least fitfully focused on. This is Israeli-Arab relations, and the sole thing that can be pointed at as a success is the opening of diplomatic ties between Israel and the tiny states of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. That hasn’t been big news in the USA because most Americans can’t find those countries on a map, but it does have great significance in another way. Both share borders with and are clients states of Saudi Arabia, the major player in regional politics and a dictatorship that energetically supports Donald Trump. They have plenty of reasons for doing this, not least that Trump will sell them high tech weapons without any pesky questions about the murder of journalists. Trump’s promotion of fossil fuels and general support of dictators has to look good to them too, while Biden would acquiesce to any of those policies.
Therefore, I strongly expect that within the next few days, other Arab states that are beholden to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will normalize relations with Israel, followed by the Kingdom itself. Non-Arab countries like Indonesia may also be involved, because the money influence of the Saudis is so great. The announcements will probably happen over a series of days so as to prolong the news cycle, and feature big photo ops like Netenyahu shaking hands with Mohammed bin-Salman. I think that this might have happened already except for the fact that Trump has tested Covid-positive, which means he can’t host it at Camp David, and they won’t want him to go there. Since the greatest symbolism would be for Netenyahu to go to Riyadh, that’s what I expect to happen, with both sides effusively thanking Trump for his help.
I would like to think that this ploy won’t work because it will be seen as the cynical promotion by foreign enemies of a weakling as a negotiating partner. That’s exactly what it would be, because the dictators like to deal with their own kind. Trump may not even have asked them to time the announcement for political reasons, because they understand how our news cycle works.
Diplomatic engagement between Arabs and Israelis may give Trumpies something to point at other than a string of disasters, but I think it’s too late. At this point I don’t think anything will take the spotlight off of Covid and the failure to enact a stimulus plan. Still, it can’t hurt to point out in advance that Trump may have gone to tyrants around the world with quid pro quos to help keep him in power.