John Ralston of the Nevada Independent is the premier public observer of NV elections. Every election year, he parses public information (posted by the NV Secretary of State) on votes cast prior to election day, which the Secretary disaggregates by county, voting method, and party of registration. Ralston has a great track record of accurately predicting the actual tally from that information: even though nobody can peer inside the cast ballots to see for whom they’re voted, NV party registrations are typically pretty fresh, so given the public information on votes cast by voters registered D, R, or I in particular counties, he’s able to confidently and accurately predict the outcome. Because his method doesn’t depend on polls, it’s an important data point as we anxiously await actual tallies of votes cast. Also, NV is sufficiently close to the national battleground states that Trump viewed it as one of his most likely Clinton states to flip this year. So if Biden’s winning NV by more than the ~27,000 vote, 2.4% margin of Clinton’s 2016 victory there, that’s a meaningful sign that he’s well positioned to win nationally.
Ralston hasn’t yet “called” the NV race for Biden, but he’s made clear today that the singer with two X chromosomes and a high BMI is clearing her throat:
If you look at the math below, it already was very difficult for Trump. Now he has less of a chance to win than he does of getting a gaming license in Nevada.
… [T]he dice are cast, and they look like snake eyes for the GOP.
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More later, but the math is just not there for Trump.
Ralston’s full blog is at thenevadaindependent.com/...