Halfway through the hearing and it looks like Obamacare will probably survive.
In order for Obamacare to fall, SCOTUS must find 3 things:
1) The plaintiffs have standing to challenge the law. How can you show that you are harmed by a $0 penalty? Roberts + the liberals seem skeptical of this. I think if RGB was still on the court, this is what they would find. It’s an easy way out for the court to find no standing. It’s the least controversial way to end this dog of a case.
2) The mandate is unconstitutional. This new court seems likely to find this unfortunately as Kavanaugh has made this pretty clear.
3) The mandate is not severable. This is what will probably save the law. Kavanaugh and Roberts have made it fairly clear that they think this law can be severed and only the mandate stripped.
In any case, it looks like I think the law will probably survive with the mandate possibly being struck down. There’s also a possibility of finding “no standing” as the court likes to avoid controversy if possible.
You can follow the Scotusblog analysis here: