Let’s be real Democrats. We had all the elements in our favor going into the 2020 elections. Trump was unfavorable by all measures in every poll since 2016. Generic Democrat was more favorable than Generic Republican in every vote on any platform. We outraised Republicans on major senate races in Florida, Kentucky, North Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Alaska, and South Carolina. Yes, even South Carolina!!!
We were convinced that President Trump’s incompetence in handling the COVID19 crisis was evident to the masses. We assumed that all Americans knew the direct relationship between the mishandling of the COVID19 turmoil and the devastating impact on our economy. We were confident that our fellow citizens understood that the Black Lives Matter responded to Trump’s racist behavior.
Our assumptions were correct for at least 78M Americans, but about 46% of the electorate feel otherwise. Let’s call them “low-information voters” for now.
Low-information voters are convinced that COVID19 is a hoax. They assume that the democrats’ hoax is deliberately bringing down the greatest economy in the world built by Trump. They are sure that Black Lives Matter and all the protests are the ejaculations of the anarchists on the left.
Until the 2020 elections, I believed that the low-information voters’ assumptions were a minority within the Republican party. I hoped that most of our fellow citizens were smart and were well informed about current events. I was sure that the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of advertising by senators, house representatives, local candidates, and Joe Biden would inform the public about the truth.
I think I was wrong about our messaging. I think we are deliberately leaving out a significant majority of our fellow citizens. Frankly, all our political advertisements are ‘preaching to the choir’ and not even trying to engage with the other side. Let me explain.
I live in Georgia, and we are being bombarded with advertisements everywhere. We pass by a billboard that features the following ominous message. We laughed at it.
COVID-1984
Wake up, Sheep. Wolves are at the door.
At first blush, I was disgusted by Loeffler’s lies and Perdue’s deceit, and I was excited by Ossoff’s positive message and was inspired by Warnock’s enlightening advertisement. The more I thought about it, and I wondered how much of my disgust for Republican ads was prejudiced by my tribalism. I also considered how my understanding of the concepts, values, and positions might be clouding my preconceived notions on these advertisements.
I decided to do a thought experiment on these ads by ignoring everything I knew about the candidates, policies, positions, and parties. I wanted to simulate how a “low information voter” would see these advertisements. I know it’s impossible to emulate this, but here is my neutral take on each of these ads.
Please understand that I am just making notes on the message as a low-information voter. Someone who has a very tough, all-day job, someone who turned on the TV with a beer can in their hand to catch up on sports or news.
Here is Perdue’s ad on Ossoff (https://youtu.be/StcY3xE6Bsk). Here is the summary of the advertisement, as delivered
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Schumer: “We take Georgia, and then we take America.”
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Schumer, Pelosi, and Ossoff are trying to change America radically.
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They are trying to defund the police.
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They will provide voting rights to illegal immigrants.
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They will make DC the 51st state.
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Ossoff says, “Change is coming to America.”
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Change is bad, as they are trying to change our nation radically.
If I am a low information voter, I am scared of looking at Perdue’s advertisement. The graphics are dark and fit the message that Ossoff, Schumer, and Pelosi want to radically change our nation is very self-explanatory. I am scared of this Ossoff guy!
Here Ossoff’s advertisement (https://youtu.be/R-ZYvGyakJQ)
Summary of the ad, as delivered
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The only way to beat the virus is to help the new president succeed.
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I will work with Joe Biden to beat the virus.
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I will empower the medical experts.
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I will work with Biden to provide relief to the businesses.
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I will work with Biden to invest in infrastructure.
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I will support healthcare initiatives.
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Purdue stopped Obama from succeeding.
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Purdue will obstruct Biden’s success.
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Our Jobs are on the line.
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Our healthcare is on the line.
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Vote for me to help Biden succeed
If I am a low information voter and voted for Biden - this is the right message. If I am a low information voter and voted for Trump, I hate that Ossoff will work with Biden.
Loeffler on Warnock (https://www.youtube.com/embed/b0uhPkVadJc)
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Warnock is too extreme for Georgia
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Warnock eats pizza with a knife and a fork.
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Warnock once stepped foot on a crack on a sidewalk and made a big deal about this.
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Warnock supports Rev. Wright.
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Rev. Wright blamed Americans for 9/11
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Rev. Wright said, “God Damn America.”
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Warnock is too extreme because he paid a compliment to Rev. Wright.
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Warnock is Anti-American
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Warnock is Anti-Isreal
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Warnock is Anti-second-amendment
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Warnock is Anti-law enforcement.
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Warnock thinks that Law enforcement is like gangsters.
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Don’t let Warnock fool you with pizza and puppies.
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Warnock will make Georgia less safe.
If I am a low information voter, this ad speaks directly to me. This tells me that ‘this Warnock guy’ is after my guns; he is ‘anti-police’, ‘anti-American,’ and is definitely ‘too extreme for Georgia’. Remember, I am a low information voter. I don’t have time, patience, or access to validate these statements. The only way for me to hear the alternative version of Warnock is from Warnock himself.
Here is how Warnock responds about his record (https://youtu.be/fuNpZvJ0sNY)
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I am a Pastor
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I grew up in a housing project.
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I am one of 11 siblings in my family.
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I graduated from college.
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I am now a pastor of Ebiner Baptist Church.
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I have testimonials to prove my credentials.
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I am proud of my work.
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I will work to provide access to affordable healthcare.
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I will support the dignity of workers
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I will help the right to vote
If I am a low-information voter with no prior knowledge of either candidate, Warnock’s advertisement does solve any of my questions about him from the Loeffler ad. My internal simulation came out with this feedback.
“Warnock says a lot of positive things about himself, but who doesn’t?
Is he genuinely Anti-American?
Is he going to take away my guns?
Is he going to shut down law enforcement?
I have NO idea!”
In summary, I think democrats are spending way too much time building messages for the voters they already have commitments from. If our goal is to convert more voters to vote for our candidates, we need to customize these messages to low information voters. We also need to spend more money directly responding to the attack ads by republicans. We cannot just “go high when they go low” because the low-information voters need a different message to reach out to. We need to create a concise statement that talks positively about our platform and spends enough time taking down the opponents.
For all his faults, Trump understands this. Though he is a billionaire, he speaks like a layman precisely for this reason. I am not sure if this is who he is or if he accidentally came to this conclusion - but he understood very early that his only way to succeed as a candidate is to act as a voter of his party. He talks like them, tweets like them, yells like them, emulates their anger, and channels their pain, albeit facetiously. We know that this is all an act for Trump, but his base believes in him. Until the 2020 election, I thought his base supports him because of racism, but I am no longer sure. Trump’s message is unfocused, undisciplined, bigoted, and disorganized, and we all laugh at him. However, this is how most low-information voters are - we all can be unfocused, undisciplined, bigoted, and disorganized at times, but we expect our leaders to behave differently. However, low-information voters are proud that a person they can empathize with is their leader, not some smart, elite, intelligent politician.
Unless we build the message that’s specifically customized to voters that don’t have access to any facts, news, or information, we will continue to lose in the sunbelt states of Florida, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, and South Carolina. We need to change our messaging, discuss with them at their level, and not preach to them like the elitists we come across.