About a week ago I wrote a short diary in an attempt to identify an event that would remove any ambiguity of the phrase “apparent winner.” At the time I was thinking the date at which the state certifications put Biden at or above 270. Turns out that many states certify on the last possible day (8 Dec) which would give Biden less than a week head start over the date when the EVs are due to the VP (someone make sure that Pence’s e-mail is not full).
So I’ve come-up with another date, one that gives Biden a bigger head start. That date is Monday, 23 November.
Why that date? We’re all watching MI and PA as they certify on Monday. Yes, there may be some last minute shenanigans. Kelly from PA has filed suit to toss all mail-in votes. The Republicans on the MI election board may balk. In either case, I expect there will be swift remedies via the courts. Note Georgia has already certified. Assuming all goes as planned:
Sum of all states that have certified (including MI and PA)
plus non-certified, non-battleground states = 279
In other words, take the certified states as of 23 Nov, plus all states where there is no controversy (e.g., CA, MD), and not counting AZ, NV and WI (which have yet to certify), the result is 279. You all can run your maps and check my math.
One more thing: Emily is not going to ascertain without a court order. Simply not going to happen. She’s playing to an audience of one. I’ve read articles how she’s not a Trumper, or is a Trumper — who cares. She’s not going to budge. Biden’s team should have an appeal ready the minute MI and PA have certified.
A question to any lawyer who might read this: which court would hear an appeal from Biden’s team?
Thanks.