So the two words of political advice I have based on fairly recent history are:
JUSTICE & RESULTS
Let me start with
JUSTICE:
Looking back, some of us are old enough to remember the Nixon years and how they ended. While he did leave office, he never really faced the wrath of justice for his crimes. He was pardoned by his successor, President Ford. That obviously didn’t help Ford politically as he lost the following election. But letting Nixon off the hook for his crimes didn’t really help the Democrats in the long run, or the Country as a whole for that matter. It set the precedent in recent history that yes, if your President you can get commit crimes and get away with it. This precedent was later reinforced by Reagan (Iran/Contra) who was let off the hook by Barr. IMO, these events, to some degree, have lead to Trump feeling that he is above the law and will not be held responsible for his crimes.
Now we all know that it was the Republicans, not the Democrats who let Nixon off the hook (there is no way to know what Democrats would have done with Nixon had he not been pardoned). So a Nixon / Trump analogy isn’t perfect, especially since we do not know if there will be a Trump pardon, and Nixon, unlike Trump, was not being investigated for non-pardonable State crimes. Still the political lesson to be learned by Democrats from Nixon is that letting a criminal off the hook has NO political advantage.
Of course we are hearing a lot of “let it go” from the some of the Biden folks in order to unify the Country. The fear is that any investigation/prosecution of Trump and his Crime Family will be viewed as a political vendetta, and not a quest for Justice. There are two political problems with this. First the vast, vast majority of the 70 million folks who voted for Trump will give Biden and the Democrats ZERO credit for not investigating/prosecuting Trump. I would argue that none of these folks will vote for Dems. in the future out of gratitude for not prosecuting Trump. On the other hand, many in the base of the Democratic coalition will view a Trump “get out of jail free” card as a travesty of Justice, and just another example of the rich and powerful getting away with their crimes. For many in the base, this will translate into disgust that will make them either tune out politically or start up damaging 3rd Party movements.
Now the trick will be having criminal investigations performed and if warranted indictments issued, without it being viewed by most voters as a political vendetta based on “trumped” up charges (pardon the pun, but I couldn’t resist). Biden has to nominate an AG that goes after Trump on SOLID Judicial grounds, and then walk a way and let his AG do his/her job. It might be even better, if the AG simply let’s State and local prosecutors (NY State AG and Manhattan DA) and Grand Jurys take the lead, and be the first to make public Trump crimes.
The bottom line is the Dem. base, and other fairness minded voters are NOT seeking political revenge, they are seeking JUSTICE and (IMO) they will reward the Democratic politicians that pursue JUSTICE! That does not mean engaging in political “witch hunts”. It means conducting solid, thorough investigations and only pursuing prosecutions where the crimes are serious and the evidence is overwhelming, which I think will be in the case of the Trump Crime Family. To simply do nothing or attempt to suppress ongoing investigations will NOT be viewed as letting political bygones be bygones, it will be viewed as the rich and powerful being allowed to be ABOVE the law and an INJUSTICE rendered on our Country. Yes, the loyal Trumpsters will view it as a political prosecution no matter what. But if you properly frame the matter by posing the question to voters:
“Should a former President be allowed to get a way with breaking the law simply by virtue of the fact he was once the President?”
I think the honest answer most voters (including some Republicans) would give is “NO”.
RESULTS:
Looking back once again to when Obama first took office in 2009, we all remember the olive branch President Obama offered to GOP. Despite the fact that he had a Dem. majority in the House and a 60 vote, Filibuster proof majority in the Senate, by virtue of Franken’s very close win, Obama insisted on getting at least some Republicans on board with his legislative agenda. That meant diluting Progressive legislation designed to help the common man in order to try to get some Republicans on board. As a result, the economic recovery package was not as robust as it might of been and we lost things like the Public Option in the final ACA. Of course, what Obama didn’t know until years later is that McConnell and Senate Republicans were bound and determined to NOT cooperate with Obama on ANYTHING, from Day One of his Presidency. Lesson Learned (I Hope)!
Now as we look forward into the upcoming Biden/Harris Administration, we are hearing a similar message of UNITY (with the Republicans) being put forth by Biden as we heard from Obama going into his first term. At this point though, it does make some political sense. Biden’s majority in the House is smaller than Obama’s and we don’t know yet who will control the Senate, and even if it is the Dems., it will be by the smallest of margins. So Biden offering the olive branch now is the only real option. But the mistake Obama made was to continue compromising on Progressive legislation well into his first term even when he didn’t have to. All that one-way cooperation only lead to the forming of the Astroturf Tea Party movement and the disaster 2010 mid terms.
But Biden’s message is somewhat different. He is talking about UNITY not only in terms of Republican and Democrat politicians, but in terms of the Country’s citizenry as a whole, which is an admirable goal and one that needs to be pursued if we are ever going to hold this country together and work towards achieving “a more perfect union”.
So Biden’s trick will be, how to pursue National UNITY, without falling into the same political trap as President Obama.
He does that by providing RESULTS! By RESULTS I’m talking about changing the lives of the lower (income) 99% of Americans for the positive, regardless of race, gender, gender identity, political affiliation (Democrat, Republican or Independent) or where they live (urban, suburban or rural). That does not necessarily mean compromising with Republicans which usually means giving handouts to the upper 1% (e.g., tax breaks) so the Republicans will allow us to throw a few crumbs to the lower 99%. That was the method President Obama used in 2009. While it did help many in the lower 99% and Obama needs to be given credit for it, it did lead to the disastrous political RESULTS of 2010. As AOC has, I believe, correctly put her finger on, achievement of the National Unity Biden and all of us rightly seek, should be done through an alternative policy of pushing a Progressive economic agenda which clearly benefits the bottom 99%. An example would be pushing for a tax cut for the bottom 99% while paying for it by a tax increase (or wealth tax) on the upper 1%. Republicans will not oppose tax cuts since it’s against their political nature and would be politically disastrous for them. It would put Republicans in a position of either accepting hire taxes on the ultra rich or compromising to pay for the tax cut by accepting a (temporary) higher Federal deficit.
So the next question is how does the Biden administration get such Progressive RESULTS, especially in the face of such a divided Congress?
From an Executive Action perspective, Biden simply has to advance Progressive economic policies that benefit the lower 99% to the greatest extent allowed through the issuance of Executive Orders and direction given to the various Agency heads he appoints. An example would be changing the labor rules regarding paid overtime to expand the definition to allow for greater eligibility. Such measures have definite appeal to lower and middle class workers of all colors, and if publicized adequately, won’t go unnoticed by these voters.
From a Legislative perspective, things won’t be easy, especially if McConnell manages to hold onto a slim GOP majority in the Senate.
In the event that McConnell holds the majority, Biden will have no choice but to deal with him. But that doesn’t mean bowing down to him and accepting whatever he may offer. It means boxing him in, instead of being boxed in by him. If you remember, McConnell’s excuse for blocking House legislation over the last 4 years has often been he wouldn’t bother to bring legislation to the Senate Floor that Trump would not sign. He of course will no longer be able to use that excuse, so if he decides to go into full blocking mode, he will have to face the music for his obstruction. Biden can make that worse on McConnell if he can use his Senate charm to chip away a few GOP “moderate” Senators from McConnell’s blockade and split the GOP caucus. While some compromising still may be necessary in this situation to get RESULTS, McConnell can be put in a position of having to do the most compromising.
In the event we take the bare majority in the Senate by virtue of sweeping the two Georgia runoffs, I hate to say this but I don’t see us having 50 Dem. Senators who are willing to abolish the Filibuster on Day One, nor do I see Biden pushing to do so, at least not right away. However, having the Majority in the Senate means you can diminish McConnell’s power by trying to again charm as many GOP “moderate” Senators as you can to split McConnell’s hold over the GOP caucus. You can establish “Budget Reconciliation” rules that allow you to pass some Budget related legislation by a simple majority in the Senate, as was done for parts of the Affordable Care Act to get around the GOP Filibuster. It may be possible to pass things like the Public Option in this way. Also, you can use the threat of doing away with the Filibuster to push the GOP into compromises highly slanted in the Progressive direction in order to get legislative RESULTS. Put McConnell in a position where he feels it’s better to give in on one piece of legislation, than to lose control altogether. Of course, that would require 100% cooperation among Dem. Senators and the willingness to follow through on the threat if McConnell decides to call our bluff.
In the end, the trick will be to get the most Progressive RESULTS possible, or failing that, to at least make it very clear to voters that it is McConnell and the GOP Senate who are standing in the way.
Getting Progressive RESULTS that makes life better for the bottom 99%, (IMO) is the best way to swing moderate and conservative voters (yes, and even a few devote Trumpers) to vote for Democrats. It is at least worth a try, since we know from 2010 history that offering compromises to GOP politicians doesn’t work.
BOTTOM LINE: JUSTICE is the best way to retain voters in the Democratic base, and achieving Progressive RESULTS is the best way to swing voters over to our side. At least those are my two words of advice.