If the panic center in your brain is anything like the panic center in my brain, every time you feel confident it reminds you of 2016 when we were confident on election day and…. you know the rest.
Aside from the fact that trump had a 30% chance of winning in 2016 and only a 10% chance this time, 2016 is only one data point.
Since then we had a giant election in 2018. One in which many doom and gloomers argued that we would never be able to take back the House in a gerrymandered America. Trump would always defy the polls.
Here is what 538 predicted that day.
Democrats had to flip 24 seats to win the House. 538 gave us 7/8 odds of doing that. We flipped 40. Forty.
No Trump wasn't running but he campaigned like he was and PLENTY of people worried that, despite the polls, 2018 would be just like 2016.
And every time we got news that looked like it might be bad that night (and there was plenty — the newscasters were full of “this sure doesn’t look like a blue wave” punditry) we all felt worried (at least I did).
So today if a little tidbit comes through that discourages and worries you and your brain starts yelling “2016” Remind it of 2018.
And VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!