Another two years have passed and another US election has come. And this time, my anxiety is through the roof almost as much as 2016, despite polls showing good results. This is what it means to be a Democrat. Even my own projections line up well, but still I am nervous.
In 2018, I was too optimistic in some seats, especially the Senate, and also called several house races wrong, but there were other races that broke more Democratic than I could have predicted, leading to a house more or less what I predicted, just winning different seats (such as winning OK-05 but losing KY-06, for example).
I do not do tossups at this stage in the race, taking a page from Larry Sabato. As such, every race has a party win associated with them.
Let’s break them down.
Overall, I have Democrats winning the Presidency, D+7 in the Senate, D+20 in the House, and R+1 for governorships.
Presidency
538 and other forecasts have Biden favoured. I do too. The question, then, is how big his EV margin will be, since popular vote sadly really doesn’t matter overall.
New swing states come onto the board from 2016, and all the familiar faces remain as well. As with 2016, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada are Biden very favoured, but on the cusp on competitiveness. Virginia and Colorado have fallen off the map, as have the Maine at-large EVs.
Joining them here, in a more optimistic take than four years ago, are Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nebraska-02. Michigan and Wisconsin polls have had Biden up consistently but sizeable margins, matching the margin of victory for Democratic senate candidates or better in those states in 2018. It appears they have swung back into the Democratic fold. Arizona polls have Biden up low single digits, but his lead has been consistent for months and months. Much like Sinema, it could be drawn out, but I expect Biden to win. NE-02 has private polling, apparently, which shows Biden up high single digits, akin to Michigan and Wisconsin. A suburban seat (Omaha), it is the type of place swinging hard against Trump.
For states that likely go to Trump, by reduced margins from 2016, there are several. I went back and forth on some of these, but I have decided to be safe for them. I don’t expect any to flip. Among these are Pence’s home state of Indiana; the suburban revolt occurring from a very divided Republican party in Kansas; whatever is happening in Missouri where it appears to be much closer than expected; Montana, home to several very close races at all levels, even down ballot; Mississippi with its large black population; Nebraska-01, which has a low chance of swinging but I’d rather be safe here; and South Carolina, which Trump shouldn’t lose but the coastline is looking good for Democrats and there are down ballot races here.
I think Biden is decently positioned to win in three more swing areas, and thus win the election with it. The first of these is Maine-02, a working class, very white district in the north of, well, Maine. Rep Golden looks good, and Biden’s barely been up, but a win is a win whether by 1 or by 10. North Carolina will be close, but I think Biden is more likely than not to win it, probably by low single digits. That’s enough. Of these three seats, the third is Pennsylvania, a state that has been causing heartburn for Democrats all over the nation, and abroad. Poll shave Biden favoured by mid-single digits. I imagine he wins by about that much, but anxiety won’t let us rest easy, so I have it here instead. He should win Pennsylvania by the most of these three.
Alaska is a weird state and very difficult to poll. It is home to several competitive races, has a libertarian streak, and also gives third parties better results at all levels than most other states. Realistically this should be with states like Kansas, but because of its weirdness it alone gets the Lean Trump designation.
The rest of the states—Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio—I have as tossups. It was hard to decide how they would be divided. Polling has Biden up in the first two, barely behind in the latter two, and Iowa who knows what it looks like for now with polling showing it going any way.
Thus, both my head and my heart are saying Biden will win Georgia, a major reversal from the heartbreak in 2018 and 2014. The nice thing is he doesn’t need any of these to win. Florida always break the hearts of Democrats—2000, 2010, 2018—so can 2020 be an exception? It may well be, and I think, on a whim, it will revert to its 2012 form with different coalitions. Iowa will be close, with a ten point swing from 2016, but I think Biden pulls it out, somehow.
Ohio will be close, as always, but I think this is the year it will no longer be a bellwether, as Joe Biden becomes the first president-elect to win the election without winning Ohio since John F. Kennedy lost it to Richard Nixon in 1960. That leaves Texas: the biggest for last. And, as it is grouped here with Ohio, I think we narrowly lose it, no matter how much I want blue Texas to be a thing. Other parts of Texas seem more promising than the presidential race based on suburban revolt, and a win here I am not ruling out, but it is more likely than not that Biden loses it.
Democratic victory (357-181, +AZ, +MI, +NE-02, +WI, +ME-02, +NC, +PA, +FL, +GA, +IA from 2016)
Senate
The 2014 map returns with a vengeance, after losing 9 seats last time.
Let’s touch on the safe seats first. TN-OPEN was never in play after Bredesen was wiped out two years ago. Warner isn’t in trouble despite his close call in 2014: Virginia is way too Democratic now, especially in a decent year. He’ll do better than Kane. Tina Smith will hold on by high single digits or low double digits against a former representative, but it won’t be all that close in the end, I imagine, up in Minnesota. Shaheen won’t be in trouble either: this isn’t the year for New Hampshire Republicans not named Sununu. Peters, much like Stabenow, may not do as well as Biden, but he will win over an actual empty suit Republican who happens to be black but just isn’t that great at this. Peters won’t win by as much as he did over Land in 2014. Cory Gardner will fall to former Governor Hickenlooper in Colorado, and it will be by double digits, which will be hilarious.
McSally will lose to Kelly. She hasn’t led in a (viable) poll for months and months, and although his margins have gotten smaller as time has gone on, she doesn’t look to be in a good place. Remember to not eat your dinner so you can give her money. Meanwhile Kelly is crushing it in fundraising too. This seat will be up again in 2022. Collins’s goose finally looks cooked as she goes down to Sara Gideon. I am confident in Collins losing, especially with the leftist independents telling voters to put Gideon second due to the use of RCV in the state. Taking her down will be a victory indeed. Unfortunately, winning these seats isn’t enough for a majority, and at least two more at needed.
Sadly, Alabama is too Republican, and Tommy Tuberville is no Roy Moore. Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) will lose. He will be a great Attorney General. Louisiana has runoffs, so while I expect Republicans to easily win the seat, a runoff is possible which is why this seat is Likely as opposed to Safe. The runoff, should it even happen as it is only a possibility, is likely to not matter as Cassidy crushes mayor Perkins, should he even make it, by probably more than he did to Landrieu in 2014. Finally, Hyde-Smith against Mike Espy, the rematch, could also go to a runoff. It did last time, which Espy lost. This time is no different. This will be, despite being in Mississippi, a single digit race, surprisingly.
Tillis in North Carolina I foresee losing by lose single digits to Cal Cunningham, in what will be a historically sexy election. Despite everything in this race, it remains about two percent more Democratic than the presidential race, so if Biden is winning or very narrowly losing, Cunningham should win. Tillis was hated in 2014 and barely won even then, and is still hated by the base even now. Truly an inspiring politician. I am putting my faith in pre-election week polling and believing that Greenfield will oust Ernst in Iowa. She’s lost her magic touch. However, I was wrong in 2018 about how Iowa would go for the governor race—Hubbell lost to Reynolds despite being favoured both in my ratings and polls—so I might be too optimistic. But if Biden is winning Iowa, I think Greenfield is crossing the finish line for victory as well, perhaps a few points ahead of him like Cunningham in North Carolina.
Cornyn will win by low single digits. This is not a question to me. The question though, is if Biden wins can he drag Hegar over. It’ll be close, but not as close as 2018, I think, when I gave it this same rating. Beto was something special, as his work paid off this cycle, and hopefully further into the future. Sullivan in Alaska is a sleeper pick for a Democratic (aligned Independent) pickup, but it’s hard to poll, and polls have Gross losing regardless. I don’t know how this will go, but it’s possible, so this is my safe spot for it. Finally, it pains me to say I think Bollier will lose in Kansas, but that Kansas was even this competitive and on the board for realistically the first time in decades is amazing, especially since Kris Kobach isn’t even the Republican candidate. The streak that has existed since 1932 I do not expect to break here.
The two Georgia seats could go to a run-off, and so toss-up it is. The special (Warnock vs Loeffler/Collins) is basically guaranteed a runoff, and who we would run against is up in the air. One candidate sucks; the other sucks more. Loeffler is probably easier to run against as a toady and kind of corrupt, but we’ll see. I don’t know if Warnock can win, but if I think Ossoff will, I’ll give the edge to Warnock too. People seem to be very optimistic on the other seat, which is Ossoff against the incumbent Perdue. I’ll stick with that optimism, and predict Ossoff wins a runoff in a marginal fashion, but I agree with others that a Ossoff outright win is more likely than a Perdue outright win. This will be very close.
Graham in South Carolina, despite the close polls and Harrison’s monster fundraising, I don’t think goes down. As the state goes red, too many Republicans don’t vote the Democrat or the third party candidate (who dropped out and endorsed Graham, despite Harrison hyping him up as uber conservative). Graham’s odious, opportunistic self, I think, will return to Congress, but this time as a chair of nothing.
Finally, Montana is the battle of the Steves. Daines, the senator, is non-controversial, but his opponent is the sitting Governor, Bullock. This will be very close, with most polls showing a one or two point race in favour of Daines. I think this result could be surprising, as it always in in Montana, and take several days to count, but that this time, Bullock will unseat an incumbent. I just don’t count on it and thus sadly am not expecting Bullock to win.
Democratic victory (53-47)
D+7: (+CO, +AZ, +ME, +IA, +NC, +GA-A, +GA-B)
Governors
These are easy, with only eleven races this year.
Scott and Sununu will win in the blue New England states easily. Holcomb won’t do that great, but the hyped Libertarian will do nothing, and the Democrat is lackluster in general. The same applies in West Virginia, but it’s redder and there is no third party candidate to siphon the votes. North Dakota and Utah are stupid Republican.
Carney and Inslee will easily be re-elected in their very blue states.
Cooper in North Carolina should win by a decent margin thanks to his handling of COVID and general popularity against his Lieutenant Governor (they are elected separately). On the flip side, Parsons who is running for his first term in Missouri seems more in trouble, but not enough to make his seat flip to state auditor and Democratic nominee Nicole Galloway.
In Montana, Lt. Gov Cooney is running against the Representative, Gianforte, known for body pressing reporters. Gianforte lost in 2016 and was subject to a hilarious video from Chris Christie by accident, but I think he is favoured over Cooney based on the state’s redness and Gianforte’s greater name recognition. This would give a state level trifecta for Republicans.
R+1 (-MT)
House
Unlike two years ago, where I did not know what to expect, this time I am much more optimistic and declare the House to be Safe Democratic. That is, the majority is very safe, and I expect Democrats to increase that majority by a decent umber of seats. At worst, we are looking at an increase of high single digits in seats.
Due to another round of court-ordered redistricting, Democrats have two guaranteed pickups in North Carolina: NC-02 and NC-06, where the incumbents retired rather than lose.
Most pickups Democrats made in suburban seats in 2018 are now safe. Among those that are not are CA-39 and CA-48 in California’s Orange County, WA-08 (King County), and NJ-03 (South-central New Jersey). Three of these candidates are awash in cash, and WA-08 is rarely talked about as a Republican target, a sign of how bad things are for them.
In IA-03, Axne is having a rematch with the man she defeated in 2018, Young. This is the best seat for Democrats in the state and thus if Biden is competitive she should be winning. OR-04 is a Republican target, but I can’t see a Democratic incumbent losing in Oregon this year. Slotkin in MI-08 is a rising star and adept fundraiser. She will also win.
There are three major Democratic targets I think are likely to flip. TX-23 is the first, where the incumbent won by a fraction of a percentage in a blue seat in 2018, then retired this year to avoid losing again. Republicans are putting up a decent fight, and this seat isn’t that blue, but Democrats seem likely to win this seat this year. TX-24 is the next one, a suburban seat in DFW which is rapidly diversifying and has high post-secondary educational attainment. The incumbent Republican retired as part of the massive Texodus from Congress of senior Republican members from Texas from 2017-2020. Finally is GA-07, another open seat in the Atlanta suburbs where the incumbent won by only 700 votes in 2018, they called it quits, likely at the behest of party leaders.
Republicans, on the other hand, have no likely or safe pickups. What they do have, however, are defending many seats that are on the fringe of competitiveness. Many of these are semi-suburban seats that are not suburban enough to be truly competitive, for now. If seats stayed the same, depending on population trends, many of these suburban seats could be much more competitive. Among these types of seats are OH-10, OH-12, NC-09, SC-02, and several seats in Texas: TX-02, TX-05, TX-06, and TX-31. If any of these seats flipped I would be surprised, but it wouldn’t be the most shocking potential flip.
Other seats are in play due to a lackluster Republican candidate, a good Democratic candidate, or a generally competitive seat. OH-14 is a rust belt seat Democrats have sought for years to no avail. This will be no different. MI-07 has a rematch that the Republican should again win handily in a gerrymandered seat. FL-16 and FL-18 are on the board due to a good challenger and lacking incumbent respectively, but neither are likely to flip. CA-04 is a weird, semi-competitive, semi-suburban seat that is on the precipice of this list. WA-03 is southern Washington and the parts of the state north of Portland. I’m not sure what to make of it this year. It was close in 2018, and is another rematch. I think Democrats fall just short again, as nothing indicates the major national party apparatuses are making a play for it.
Among other seats Republicans must defend that are more competitive, there are the open FL-15 and KS-02 seats due to incumbent (corrupt) Republicans going down in primaries. I have CA-50 here, but I think Issa will be returning to Congress more likely than not, sadly. Then we have a bunch of suburban seats that will be competitive, but these are the ones I don’t think will flip: NY-01 (Long Island), PA-01 (Bucks), NC-08, KY-06 (Lexington and suburbs), TX-03 (DFW), TX-10, and TX-25 (both Austin). Finally, I have AK-AL here, where Young prevailed in a close race in 2018. His independent challenger returns. As last time, I expect a small single digit win for the incumbent. One day Alaska will have a new representative, but I imagine it will be after the dean of the house someone leaves this seat.
Democrats are also defending some more competitive seats they are competitive in. These are generally the less suburban seats they won from Republicans in 2018. These include NY-19, VA-02, VA-07, IA-01, SC-01, and UT-04. Of seats Democrats already held, there is the open IA-02 in southeastern Iowa. There is also AZ-01, a sprawling seat in eastern Arizona, which Democrats have held the better part of the decade despite 2014’s bad year. The incumbent, of course, is a ConservaDem and former Republican state senator. The Hispanic-majority FL-26, known for poor turnout and a top tier Republican candidate I put here as well, along with the Hispanic-majority CA-21, which Biden likely wins in a landslide. Both of these are tougher holds than others I have mentioned. Finally, SC-01 is an odd seat that Republicans should win. Oddly, I think Biden is more likely to win here than Trump, who won it by 10 last time. As such, Cunningham will win by outrunning Biden thanks to his focus on local issues.
Among seats I favour Democrats in to pick up, I have seven in this category. The most likely to flip is CA-25, which Republicans picked up in a special election. I think the losing candidate, Smith, will win with presidential turnout and more Democrats coming out to vote. I also have NJ-02 flipping, where a Kennedy will go to Congress after defeating turncoat Representative Van Drew. He was supposed to be the saviour, then he was a flop and a turncoat. IN-05 is a well-educated suburban seat, so Democrats should pull it out here. Likewise for OH-01, where the incumbent has been involved ina weird campaign finance scandal as well. In VA-05, Republicans made a mistake turfing their Bigfoot aficionado representative for a lackluster candidate who is against a strong Democrat. Perry in PA-10 won in a close race in 2018, and now is facing a statewide official. Finally, MI-03 where Libertarian Justin Amash is retiring. The Republican is lackluster and publicly released internal polling from both parties shows Biden winning the seat.
This leaves only the 18 seats I have listed as tossups. Unlike the above seat lists, I will not be splitting them here by which I think by Democrat and which go Republican. These ones are the hardest for me to call, and it’s almost all going to be on gut feeling for how Democrats do in these races.
Let’s start with the biggest race first: I think Peterson in MN-07 finally loses, only for his successor to be drawn out in 2022 when new maps come in and Minnesota loses a seat. I am going to go out on a limb and guess that NY-11 (Staten Island), NM-02 (southern NM), and OK-05 (Oklahoma City and suburbs) all see the Democratic incumbents who shockingly won in 2018 hold on for a second term, despite polls showing close races (not in their favour) in all of them.
Unfortunately, my gut says that Hagedorn in MN-01 holds on and does not offset the Peterson loss. In other less urban seats, I think that Republicans hold on to MT-AL in yet another open seat race, but shockingly lose CO-03 (western Colorado) thanks to a crazy Q-Anon supporting Republican candidate. Some seats where I am optimistic include AZ-06, where a scandal-plagued incumbent is running for Republicans; NC-11 where both candidates aren’t great, but the Republican is worse in a seat that shouldn’t even be competitive; NY-24, finally flipping; and MO-02, as part of the suburban seats changing hands.
NE-02 I don’t want to lose again, especially because of how close the 2018 race was and this time it’s had a lot more national attention paid to it. However, the former Democratic incumbent endorsed the Republican and Nebraskan Democrats have a bad Senate candidate too, easily the worst of the cycle. Biden may well carry Eastman across the finish line. I will give Democrats a very slight edge here.
Gerrymanders can break as a decade moves on. I see the failed gerrymander in IL-13 “breaking” this election, finally going the way it is supposed to with the Democrats ousting Davis the incumbent. Likewise, the dummymander Arkansas Democrats set could break too, but I don’t think AR-02 flips, no matter how much I would like it to. The Texas gerrymander held for a long time, and this is the year (as was 2018) it is very much in jeopardy as the suburbs swing, putting Roy in TX-21 and the open TX-22 in trouble. Republicans even triaged an offense chance in TX-07 to shore up TX-22. As such, I favour Democrats in both. Texas is looking up.
Finally, I think long-time incumbent Upton hangs on in MI-06, although this is the seat I have waffled on the most of every house seat. Similarly, I see Republicans holding NY-02, at least this year. King may be gone, but the bench there isn’t that strong, for now.
Democratic hold (252-183)
D+20 (+NC-02, +NC-06, +GA-07, +TX-23, +TX-24, +VA-05, +MI-03, +IN-05, +NJ-02, +PA-10, +OH-01, +CA-25, +NC-11, +CO-03, +TX-22, +NY-24, +IL-13, +MO-02, +NE-02, +TX-21, +AZ-06, -MN-07)
I pray to God this holds out and Democrats finish strong, if not stronger than my predictions here.