Well, it wasn’t the election we anticipated. The underperforming Democrats had their expectations crushed across the country, and the smoke is still coming from the rubble.
A bitter Florida loss, a string of under-performances in NC (not called yet), TX and OH.
However, AZ (called for Biden by AP but not MSNBC) was a bright spot along with Nebraska second district for an EV (Biden leads).
NV +MI + WI + AZ + NE 02 (all Biden favored this a.m.) brings us to 270, with another 20 EV in PA up for grabs that bring us to 290. And GA as of this writing is still in play, with Atlanta area outstanding.
NV is leaning Biden, but too close for comfort yet (the NV outstanding votes are mail in and Clark, both of which favor Biden, so he should hold on).
The election still comes down to MI, WI and PA. We will not have a result as of this writing, though importantly Biden took the WI lead in the wee hours and is expected to do so in MI.
The absentee votes and “don’t count until election day” rules mean the bulk of the missing vote gets counted today. Our numbers are still looking strong enough to take all three Midwestern states when all is said and done, possibly GA, nail biters all.
But Trump in the middle of the night wants to stop counting votes. That story is just beginning.
As I said, I’m cautiously optimistic about getting to 270-290. It’s horrible that it is this close, and it’s not going to feel like a win so much as a relief if we get to 270, but that’s where we are this morning.
The red mirage:
And some rules for today:
This is the parallel but muted big story, as most of the media dismisses Trump’s claims of victory and court challenges as telegraphed and expected. But once the counting is mostly done, this is going to be one of the bigger stories to follow:
WaPo:
Trump falsely asserts election fraud, claims a victory
With millions of votes yet to be counted, President Trump falsely asserted election fraud, pledged to mount a legal challenge to official state results and made a premature claim of victory in a bitterly contested race that may take days to resolve. In remarks at the White House early Wednesday, Trump claimed that he won several states that are still counting ballots, including Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
How we reconcile the two Americas, even with a Biden win, is the big unanswered question. He may be uniquely qualified to navigate this, based on his personality and his campaign pitch, but first we need to see him win, and then we need to help him do it.
Trump is still the underdog and /but still can win (as of this morning, I don’t believe he will), even though he will assuredly lose the popular vote yet again. That is a dark path that remains to be navigated as well. Ask any German.
Times of India:
Trump attempts an electoral and political coup, and reaches out for judicial approval
The US Presidential elections are on the verge of turning into a chaotic farce worthy of a banana republic after President Donald Trump claimed he has won before a full counting of votes and said he would approach the country's Supreme Court to stop a "fraud" on the American people.
What an irony if Trump’s goal is thwarted by AZ, a last parting gift to America from John McCain. And what an irony if Trump lays out a road map for Biden to deal with Congress: Cooperate where you can. Interim appointments and ignore at will where you can’t.
As of 3:45 am:
That’s Biden’s path to the WH. And winning MI WI and PA, should that play out as expected, will feel a lot differently after it’s done.
The Senate was a major disappointment for Democrats as was the House. Republicans and Democrats alike were shocked by GOP gains, including a handful of QAnon supporters.
And Senate Democrats have to feel bad. R’s also strengthened their position in the house.
What went well was the lack of violence and major election day glitches, a good thing. And people voted in droves. But no skating around the fact that racism is not a disqualifier for way too many voters.
What the pre election analysts got right was the “red mirage” in MI WI and PA. Some counties have done their job, others now just starting, and that’s where we are.
The article pieces are limited because they go out of date almost as I begin to post them, hence this twitter heavy piece to start discussion. And for now, as I’ve noted, networks are more or less ignoring Trump’s claim of victory.
Here’s a NV explanation, and why Biden is likely to win it (the ‘left to count’ votes favor him):
Bloomberg:
Democrats’ Prospects for Senate Majority Wither After GOP Win
- Republicans fend off well-funded Democrats in several contests
- Democrats falling short of expanding their majority in House