For those that went to bed around midnight, things may have looked quite bleak. Donald Trump was leading across the same Rust Belt states he took in 2016, and promising Joe Biden leads in states like Ohio had melted after Election Day votes were tallied. Other than Fox’s early award of Arizona to Biden—a prediction that had Trump spitting fire—everything was starting to seem like a repetition of a familiar nightmare.
Late in the evening, Biden appeared to counsel patience. Then Trump showed up to claim he was ahead, so would everyone just stop counting ballots.
Biden’s advice was good. Anyone who managed a few hours sleep woke to a situation that was beginning to reflect the weight of the early votes and mail-in ballots. Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin, has won Arizona, and it seems possible that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia could all slide into Biden’s column. If those projections bear out, Biden could still end up with a decisive victory, carrying him past 300 electoral votes.
As of 7 AM ET, Biden holds a very narrow 0.3% edge in Wisconsin. However, the vote still outstanding appears to be early votes in urban areas that have heavily favored Biden. There may still be enough Biden votes remaining to carry him past the 1% margin that would protect against a recount.
Biden’s margin in Nevada is also below 1%, but the majority of remaining votes look to be in the counties holding Reno and Las Vegas. There seems to be no reason to expect Biden’s final tally in the Silver State won’t be higher.
Next door, Arizona represents the one flip that has been officially called by AP. With a 5% lead and 82% counted, it’s easy to like Biden’s position in the state. And as a rare Senate bright spot, Mark Kelly looks to have a similar edge.
But it’s the states still to be called that are interesting—in a good way. A late raft of votes out of Wayne County (Detroit) has Biden right on Trump’s heels in Michigan, and there are more such votes to count. In Pennsylvania, there’s a massive 2 million block of mail-in ballots that all on its own could level the field. Things in both states are likely to change sharply during the day. And perhaps the biggest remaining surprise is that Georgia remains in play … and actually looks as if the trends favor Biden.
That means that while the evening may have ended looking all too much like 2016, the morning … doesn’t. Biden has already flipped Arizona. He appears set to take Wisconsin. That alone puts Biden just a single EV from clinching. Add Michigan, and that’s a win. But the more likely scenario at this point appears to be still more states flipping to blue. Biden could still sweep the Rust Belt states for a solid 305 EVs, putting the election out of any shenanigans in a single state. If Georgia comes through, Biden could end with 321, a decisive victory.
Tuesday might have actually been a “dark night of the soul,” and it should never have even looked close. But in the end, this thing might not actually be close. Now go have breakfast.