As with the presidential race, the picture of Senate control is not fully known as of Wednesday morning, but where the presidential race looks like it might go to Joe Biden, Republicans appear likely to hold the Senate.
Democrats flipped seats in Colorado, with John Hickenlooper defeating Cory Gardner, and in Arizona, with Mark Kelly making Martha McSally a two-time loser. But Republicans flipped Alabama, with Tommy Tuberville defeating Doug Jones. That puts Democrats up one of the three seats they need for a 50-50 split (which would mean control if Kamala Harris becomes vice president and can break ties).
Sen. Susan Collins leads Sara Gideon narrowly in Maine. If Collins remains under 50% of the vote, the 4% of the vote currently going to a third-party candidate will be reallocated and could help Gideon. That’s two big ifs adding up to a very long shot, though.
In Michigan, Republican challenger John James narrowly leads Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, but there’s reason to hope that the same mail ballots expected to boost Biden will also boost Peters.
In Georgia, Rev. Raphael Warnock is headed to a January 5, 2021, runoff with Sen. Kelly Loeffler. Sen. David Perdue is currently just over 50% in the other Senate race in that state, but with the remaining votes to be counted in that race, it’s possible that Perdue will also be headed to a runoff against Jon Ossoff. In one possible scenario, those two runoffs could end up determining control of the Senate.
Democrat Cal Cunningham narrowly trails Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina, but it’s unlikely that the remaining ballots there will push him over the top.
The odious Lindsey Graham and Joni Ernst will stay in the Senate.
Once again, the Democrats in the Senate will represent more people than the Republicans in the Senate. But once again, the Republicans are strongly favored to have control of the Senate, highlighting again how undemocratic the U.S. system is and how badly we need major reform.