It’s never too early to start working on GOTV. Talking is no substitute for action (start volunteering now!). But I think it’s important to talk about some specific factors at play this year, because we all know that the track record of special elections in Georgia is not good for Democrats.
I think it’s a mistake to assume that previous special elections turnout is predictive of how this special election will go. So here are 10 factors to consider:
1. Biden won Georgia. I mean, the results are not official yet, but clearly there were enough votes to put him ahead, and I don’t think a recount or any lagging overseas ballots will change the outcome. This is huge, because we haven’t seen this happen in 28 years, and the world is VERY different than it was then.
Personally, I think it’s too early to say why enough voters showed up to vote for Biden to win. Some voted against Trump. Some voted for Biden. Some voted for policy reasons. Some voted for other reasons. The devil is in the data, and we just don’t have that yet. But the point is it happened once, so it’s no longer about a proof of concept.
2. Trump is not on the ballot. For better or worse, Trump motivated his base to turn out at record levels. It wasn’t quite enough to get him the win in GA. Which is fantastic news, because turnout for Republicans will only go down without Trump’s name to vote for. I think 2018 is instructive, as is Trump’s track record of endorsing Republicans down ticket. The base wants to vote for the fascist firebreather who sticks it to “the libtards.” Loeffler and Purdue are not that, no matter how hard they try.
3. There are two senate races are on the ballot, not one. We don’t know what impact that will have, but it’s reasonable to expect that more people will turn out when it’s not just a single race on the ballot.
4. The national implications of this race. This isn’t just a runoff for one senator (or even two). The control of the Senate is in the balance. For people who pay attention to politics, that will be a huge motivator.
5. The amount of money pouring in from special interests because of the national implications of these races will have some impact on turnout (although I honestly couldn’t say whether it will increase or decrease turnout).
6. Republicans have already stated explicitly that they will only confirm Biden’s appointees that they deem politically acceptable (as opposed to confirming everyone who is qualified). For some percentage of voters, that’s deeply offensive to the notion that the President should have the right to appoint his own team.
7. We have 1 million new voters in Georgia, thanks to Stacey Abrams. We don’t know what the turnout will be for such a large pool of voters who voted for the first time, and tasted victory. But I suspect it’s not anything we can predict by looking at previous special elections.
8. Stacey Abrams. She will also be working her tail off to GOTV, and I’m confident that she is an important resource that we ignore at our own peril.
9. Warnock and Ossoff are charismatic candidates. That will definitely help turnout.
10. Don’t discount the impact that mail-in voting will have. 2018 is again instructive, not just for the national environment, but because it demonstrated that the dropoff in turnout is not strictly a feature of Democrats. In a runoff election for Secretary of State and Public Service Commissioner, Republicans won both, but just barely. 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent for SoS, and 51.8 to 48.2 percent for PSC. In the case of SoS, the raw vote dropped 1,141,733 for the Republican, while it dropped 1,181,261 for the Democrat. In other words, the dropoff was comparable for both.
Considering the incredibly high rate of mail-in voting among Democrats in 2020, and in light of all the factors above, I think we have the ingredients for a winning turnout in January.
The pool of voters are obviously there to hit 50%+1 in both races. Not just in a theoretical sense, but in the sense of “we just won one statewide race, so we can win again.” GOTV is the only issue that matters now. So, if you needed any motivation to believe that we can still win the Senate, hopefully this is food for thought.