Breaking on @MSNBC: NBC's Pete Williams reports the Supreme Court has issued an order in the Pennsylvania case, but it’s not what Republicans wanted. Justice Alito repeats the guidance that post-Tuesday mail ballots must be segregated, but it doesn't direct them to stop counting.— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 7, 2020
Breaking on @MSNBC: NBC's Pete Williams reports the Supreme Court has issued an order in the Pennsylvania case, but it’s not what Republicans wanted. Justice Alito repeats the guidance that post-Tuesday mail ballots must be segregated, but it doesn't direct them to stop counting.
BREAKING: Alito temporarily orders Pennsylvania counties to segregate late-arriving mail ballots (something most or all are already doing). Refers matter to full Supreme Court for next step. pic.twitter.com/0fB2681vqG— Greg Stohr (@GregStohr) November 7, 2020
BREAKING: Alito temporarily orders Pennsylvania counties to segregate late-arriving mail ballots (something most or all are already doing). Refers matter to full Supreme Court for next step. pic.twitter.com/0fB2681vqG
*JUDGE REJECTS GOP CHALLENGE TO NEVADA BALLOT COUNT PROCEDURES— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) November 7, 2020
*JUDGE REJECTS GOP CHALLENGE TO NEVADA BALLOT COUNT PROCEDURES
A federal judge has denied Republican congressional candidates' request to stop the counting of mail-in ballots in Clark County, saying they would not succeed on the merits of the case. https://t.co/hwXYhSujRM— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 7, 2020
A federal judge has denied Republican congressional candidates' request to stop the counting of mail-in ballots in Clark County, saying they would not succeed on the merits of the case. https://t.co/hwXYhSujRM
INTERESTING FACTS from RICK SANTORUM
Rick Santorum (former two-term U.S. senator from PA) just decimated the "fraud" case in Philadelphia. He notes that 1) turnout was up 11% statewide, but just 3% in Philly; 2) Trump increased HIS vote in Phil. vs. '16 share against Hillary! Pretty bad "fraud" by Democrats.— RobGobbleGobble (@RobGeorge) November 7, 2020
Rick Santorum (former two-term U.S. senator from PA) just decimated the "fraud" case in Philadelphia. He notes that 1) turnout was up 11% statewide, but just 3% in Philly; 2) Trump increased HIS vote in Phil. vs. '16 share against Hillary! Pretty bad "fraud" by Democrats.
Former GOP PA Sen. Santorum noting that despite Trump & MAGA smears of Philly:1) turnout did not increase as much in the city as in the rest of PA, and 2) Trump did better in 2020 in Philly than in 2016. Undermining these bogus fraud claims about Philly.— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) November 7, 2020
Former GOP PA Sen. Santorum noting that despite Trump & MAGA smears of Philly:1) turnout did not increase as much in the city as in the rest of PA, and 2) Trump did better in 2020 in Philly than in 2016. Undermining these bogus fraud claims about Philly.
Another update: Joe Biden's lead in Pennsylvania has just grown to 19,647 votes. @MSNBC— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 7, 2020
Another update: Joe Biden's lead in Pennsylvania has just grown to 19,647 votes. @MSNBC
Why CNN hasn't called the election yet. #CNNElection https://t.co/CARBFQA1aX— State of the Union (@CNNSotu) November 7, 2020
Why CNN hasn't called the election yet. #CNNElection https://t.co/CARBFQA1aX
It remains very possible that Biden will earn 306 electoral votes, precisely the number Trump earned in 2016 before faithless electors. Here's how Trump has described such an Electoral College total: pic.twitter.com/KgUvV5GCEb— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) November 6, 2020
It remains very possible that Biden will earn 306 electoral votes, precisely the number Trump earned in 2016 before faithless electors. Here's how Trump has described such an Electoral College total: pic.twitter.com/KgUvV5GCEb
HERE is an INTERESTING
THREAD
Another thread from local reporters and experts that comes to the same conclusion:https://t.co/hJf7OpWiMe— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2020
Another thread from local reporters and experts that comes to the same conclusion:https://t.co/hJf7OpWiMe
START of the THREAD
Maybe the provisionals—which should mostly reflect cases where the voter originally requested a mail ballot, then decided to vote in person—are slightly D leaning but not as D leaning as mail votes. Maybe they're about neutral. They'd have to be strongly R-leaning to help Trump.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2020
Maybe the provisionals—which should mostly reflect cases where the voter originally requested a mail ballot, then decided to vote in person—are slightly D leaning but not as D leaning as mail votes. Maybe they're about neutral. They'd have to be strongly R-leaning to help Trump.
Furthermore, the universe of requested-but-unreturned mail ballots, which is where most of these provisionals originated from, was D +17 by party registration. Not as D as completed mail ballots, but obviously still quite D.https://t.co/sTPHw4KZsl— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2020
Furthermore, the universe of requested-but-unreturned mail ballots, which is where most of these provisionals originated from, was D +17 by party registration. Not as D as completed mail ballots, but obviously still quite D.https://t.co/sTPHw4KZsl
Nonetheless, we have 3 points of evidence that the provisionals are somewhat D (party registration on unreturned mail ballots, concentration in Philly, comparison to other ballots in counties to have counted them) when they'd have to be *MASSIVELY* GOP-leaning to save Trump.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2020
Nonetheless, we have 3 points of evidence that the provisionals are somewhat D (party registration on unreturned mail ballots, concentration in Philly, comparison to other ballots in counties to have counted them) when they'd have to be *MASSIVELY* GOP-leaning to save Trump.
Here's how the count has changed in Pennsylvania since shortly before 9 a.m., when Biden took the lead:PA has uploaded 25,476 results. 23K were mail-in ballots.Biden won the mail-ins by almost exactly a 2:1 ratio, and his lead has climbed from 5,510 to 13,471.— Julian Routh (@julianrouth) November 6, 2020
Here's how the count has changed in Pennsylvania since shortly before 9 a.m., when Biden took the lead:PA has uploaded 25,476 results. 23K were mail-in ballots.Biden won the mail-ins by almost exactly a 2:1 ratio, and his lead has climbed from 5,510 to 13,471.
Now, as I explain in this story, there's still a large pool of ballots left to review (only to be counted if deemed eligible). By York Daily Record's #, it's clear there are at least 92,500 provisional ballots.https://t.co/kqQLmDUzwi— Julian Routh (@julianrouth) November 6, 2020
Now, as I explain in this story, there's still a large pool of ballots left to review (only to be counted if deemed eligible). By York Daily Record's #, it's clear there are at least 92,500 provisional ballots.https://t.co/kqQLmDUzwi
Lara Putnam, a University of Pittsburgh professor who studies the electoral landscape in Western Pennsylvania, said she expects the provisional ballots to “less Biden-heavy than mail-ins, but still net Biden more votes than Trump.”— Julian Routh (@julianrouth) November 6, 2020
Lara Putnam, a University of Pittsburgh professor who studies the electoral landscape in Western Pennsylvania, said she expects the provisional ballots to “less Biden-heavy than mail-ins, but still net Biden more votes than Trump.”
Putnam also cited data compiled by Mike Johnson here:https://t.co/rUfFFDqpgH— Julian Routh (@julianrouth) November 6, 2020
Putnam also cited data compiled by Mike Johnson here:https://t.co/rUfFFDqpgH
Now, there are also an unknown number of late-arriving mail-in ballots that will be counted if they are received by mail by 5 p.m. today and were postmarked on or before Election Day. The number is shaping up to be “significantly lower” than anticipated, SOS said yesterday.— Julian Routh (@julianrouth) November 6, 2020
Now, there are also an unknown number of late-arriving mail-in ballots that will be counted if they are received by mail by 5 p.m. today and were postmarked on or before Election Day. The number is shaping up to be “significantly lower” than anticipated, SOS said yesterday.
Now, the 40K estimate in Philly includes overseas absentees and error ballots in additional to provisionals, so 5% is probably too high. Still, it seems like the provisionals are much more frequent in blue counties.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2020
Now, the 40K estimate in Philly includes overseas absentees and error ballots in additional to provisionals, so 5% is probably too high. Still, it seems like the provisionals are much more frequent in blue counties.
And even if the provisionals were red relative to their counties (which they aren't so far; they almost exactly match the overall Trump vs. Biden percentages in the counties), the fact that you're adding far more ballots in blue counties makes it very hard for them to help Trump.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2020
And even if the provisionals were red relative to their counties (which they aren't so far; they almost exactly match the overall Trump vs. Biden percentages in the counties), the fact that you're adding far more ballots in blue counties makes it very hard for them to help Trump.
That brings Biden's lead to 20k in Pennsylvania. Allegheny County has a lot of other votes left that they have left to catch up on...https://t.co/6oIHwBTERc— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 7, 2020
That brings Biden's lead to 20k in Pennsylvania. Allegheny County has a lot of other votes left that they have left to catch up on...https://t.co/6oIHwBTERc
agreedhttps://t.co/EWrToTpLyx— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 7, 2020
agreedhttps://t.co/EWrToTpLyx