By percentage of total U.S. population, Biden's vote total will be largest in history (23%+)

Glued to the news, you almost certainly already know that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have now earned the highest popular vote in the history of United States presidential elections.

There is, however, another distinction coming soon, once all votes are counted.

Until this week, the highest popular vote as a proportion of total U.S. population that year was President Obama’s election in 2008 — 22.94% — followed closely by Reagan’s in 1984 (22.88%), Johnson’s 1964 (22.46%), and Nixon’s 1972 (22.14%).

Obama’s achievement is generally left out of the greatest achievements list. The other 3 were 44+ state Electoral College landslides, sure, but they all happened in an era where more swingy voters and less geographic polarization made such landslides possible. They were also all re-elections.

If, however, you’re someone who cares more about the popular vote, you probably also care about the long arc of the increasing franchise. All other things being equal, more voters is better, so Obama was #1. Until now.

Some quick history, before going into the current election:

Thanks to the advent of the popular vote, Jackson was the first president to earn 5% of the total population in his election year. No president before him had exceeded 2%. Grant was the first to 7.5%, in the first election after the 15th Amendment. Harding was the first to 15%, in the first presidential election with women’s votes. FDR was the first to 20%, in his first re-election campaign. Johnson was the first to 22%.

Joe Biden will be the first to pass 23%.

As of writing, we have a popular vote total of 74,224,952, out of a U.S. population of 331,000,000. That’s 22.42%, putting him in 5th already, before all votes are counted. I haven’t seen a good projection of his popular vote total yet, but we can be sure he’ll move into first. California alone on November 6 is only 77% counted, and if counted votes are representative of the eventual total, there are 1,636,000 Biden votes in California yet to be counted. That would put him at 22.92%, and other states will be enough to bring Biden/Harris above 23%.

Here’s the full list of the top 15 winners.

Candidates who were second in the electoral college but who outperformed any of the top 15 winners are in italics. Much has been made about Trump passing Obama for the second highest number of total votes, but as the population is 109% of what it was in 2008, Trump would have to pass 76,000,000 in order to pass Obama by percentage. Which isn’t happening.

1. Biden 2020 (projection) — more than 23%

2. Obama 2008 — 22.94%

3. Reagan 1984 — 22.88%

4. Johnson 1964 — 22.46%

5. Trump 2020? — definitely not more than Obama 2008!

6. Nixon 1972 — 22.14%

7. Eisenhower 1952 — 21.70%

8. Roosevelt 1936 — 21.68%

9. Bush 2004 — 21.25%

10. Eisenhower 1956 — 21.18%

11. Obama 2012 — 20.99%

12. Roosevelt 1940 — 20.69%

13. Clinton 2016 — 20.39%

14. Bush 1988 — 19.79%

15. McCain 2008 — 19.78%

16. Trump 2016 — 19.50%

17. Romney 2012 — 19.41%

18. Reagan 1980 — 19.17%

19. Kennedy 1960 — 19.12%

Of course, the meaning of this total is sensitive to many factors besides increase in the franchise and increase in participation. Changes in the population pyramid dictate how many young non-voters there are. Still, it’s undeniable that never has a greater percentage of Americans cast their vote for a candidate!