In early 2020, the EV revolution took setback after setback in its flagship country, China. 2019 ended there with a limp, after another round of incentive cuts took effect midyear. Overall 2019 sales were above 2018, but only thanks to a strong first half. And by the time 2020 rolled in, China became Covid Ground Zero.
Under the pandemic China’s EV sales plummeted 50% in January, 65% in February, and 51% in March. The overall auto market was also down, but
- Less steeply than EVs, so that Q1’s EV share was 4.2%, substantially lower than Q1 2019’s 5.1%.
- Every month of lost EV sales volume delays the pace of fleet conversion from ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) to EV, and hence delays the direct impact upon oil demand and demand forecast.
Even though by April China had emerged from under Covid’s first wave, the West was now locking down, greatly impacting Asia’s export economies. With shaky family finances, reduced incentives, and EV makers struggling, will China’s EV segment recover?
It has taken a while. In Q2 the deltas from 2019 were still negative every month; but the comparison is a bit unfair since 2019 saw the classic incentives-end rush. So sales were actually improving, pulled forward by this:
Tesla’s Giga Shanghai’s launch ramp coincided perfectly with the emergence from Covid, allowing the company to pump many thousands of eagerly awaited, locally produced Model 3s onto Chinese roads. By June nearly 50k Model 3s were delivered there, more than doubling the next-most-popular EV. But this was still not enough for China to go into positive territory.
Enter the all-electric Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV, shown in the title image. In its very first month >7k were delivered, pretty much the difference putting July 2020 ahead of July 2019. By September, these Minis were topping the monthly list. And unofficially, October is looking even stronger for the WHGMiEV, a car with the longest name to size ratio I’ve ever seen. There’s no question the Model 3 will end 2020 as China’s and the world’s annual #1. But in China the WHGMiEV is now stealing the show — and with its help, China’s EV market is all but certain to surpass 2019’s total sales by December.
Some WHGMiEV specs:
- About as large as a Smart Car (20cm longer but 17cm narrower) — and yet unlike Smart it has a rear seat allowing for 4 passengers.
- Barely highway capable (per Chinese road standards at least), with 20kW motor and 100km top speed; clearly intended for city traffic.
- Battery comes in two teeny sizes — 9.2kWh and 13.8kWh. Smaller than the battery of many plug-in hybrids! It’s enough for, I dunno, ~100km and ~150km average range, respectively. Official numbers are a bit higher but I’m converting down to EPA-equivalent range.
- No quick-charging option at any trim level. I presume it can still be filled up in a couple of hours with a standard charger (rather than home-outlet “trickle” that would take almost overnight).
Now, these microcars and their…. um…. modest specs, were one major reason why China’s government started cutting incentives and raising the eligibility bar. They wanted their money to go towards stronger more capable EVs, not the bare minimum an automaker can get away with. So who’s this Wuling and what’s their secret to success?
Wuling may be this cutie’s brand name, but Wuling Motors actually has only 6% in the 3-way joint venture responsible for it. Believe it or not, but GM — the same GM that has several minivans and pickup trucks the WHGMiEV can fit inside of, and who’s barely trying to sell any EVs Stateside nowadays — holds 44%, with 50.1% going to Chinese giant Shanghai Auto (SAIC).
But what’s the secret? It’s the price, silly. They go for about $4200 to $5700 each. That’s without incentives. They don’t qualify for purchase incentives*, which now require >250km official range.
But this price is barely one-third of the cheapest incentives-eligible EV one can find, after incentives. And just over 1/10 of a new Model 3’s price.
Get it?
Want to get one?
Get in line :)
* (Teeny correction on incentives from the video below: as a BEV, the WHGMiEV does qualify for free in-city license plates, which in China metro regions is a pretty big incentive.)
