I’m back to cause you existential angst! :)
Hope everyone had a good weekend.
As can be expected, the runoff will have a lower turnout than the general election. However, overall turnout is not as important as who is actually showing up for the runoff.
Taking the election data we have, I am going to do a comparison on mail ballot requests in blue and red counties.
Side note, mail ballots have been skewing heavy dem even in the red counties in the general election. However, in this analysis, we’ll assume blue counties will vote blue, and red will vote red in terms of mail votes.
Mail ballot applications
Couny |
2020 Runoff Mail
Ballot Request |
2020 Mail GE
Ballot Request |
Percentage |
2020 winner |
APPLING |
1,451 |
2,190 |
66.26% |
T +57% |
ATKINSON |
246 |
479 |
51.36% |
T +47 |
BACON |
624 |
958 |
65.14% |
T+73 |
BAKER |
337 |
519 |
64.93% |
T+16 |
BALDWIN |
5,247 |
6,979 |
75.18% |
B+1.3 |
BANKS |
1,201 |
1,831 |
65.59% |
T+78 |
BARROW |
7,153 |
10,662 |
67.09% |
T+43 |
BARTOW |
9,097 |
13,958 |
65.17% |
T+51 |
BEN HILL |
1177 |
1,779 |
66.16% |
T+26 |
BERRIEN |
1096 |
1,743 |
62.88% |
T+67 |
BIBB |
17,782 |
25,847 |
68.80% |
B+24 |
BLECKLEY |
959 |
1,409 |
68.06% |
T+53 |
BRANTLEY |
795 |
1,367 |
58.16% |
T+81 |
BROOKS |
1,499 |
2,158 |
69.46% |
T+21 |
BRYAN |
3,572 |
5,576 |
64.06% |
T+35 |
BULLOCH |
6,453 |
8,632 |
74.76% |
T+24 |
BURKE |
1,399 |
3,179 |
44.01% |
T+1.8 |
BUTTS |
1,908 |
2,951 |
64.66% |
T+44 |
CALHOUN |
630 |
749 |
84.11% |
B+15 |
CAMDEN |
4,558 |
6,998 |
65.13% |
T+31 |
CANDLER |
676 |
1,043 |
64.81% |
T+42 |
CARROL |
8,987 |
13,017 |
69.04% |
T+39 |
CATOOSA |
5,163 |
6,815 |
75.76% |
T+56 |
CHARLTON |
654 |
965 |
67.77% |
T+51 |
CHATHAM |
40,422 |
56,016 |
72.16% |
B+19 |
CHATTAHOCHEE |
283 |
470 |
60.21% |
T+13 |
CHATTOOGA |
1,617 |
2,202 |
73.43% |
T+62 |
CHEROKEE |
35,151 |
46,908 |
74.94% |
T+39 |
CLARKE |
14,873 |
23,065 |
64.48% |
B+42 |
CLAY |
407 |
544 |
74.82% |
B+11 |
CLAYTON |
30,897 |
45,703 |
67.60% |
B+71 |
CLINCH |
321 |
507 |
63.31% |
T+47 |
COBB |
135,461 |
183,634 |
73.77% |
B+14 |
COFFEE |
1,669 |
3,139 |
53.17% |
T+40 |
COLQUITT |
2,483 |
4,018 |
61.80% |
T+47 |
COLUMBIA |
16,026 |
23,276 |
68.85% |
T+26 |
COOK |
1003 |
1,418 |
70.73% |
T+40 |
COWETA |
17,194 |
23,291 |
73.82% |
T+36 |
CRAWFORD |
1104 |
1,562 |
70.68% |
T+46 |
CRISP |
1,631 |
2,432 |
67.06% |
T+25 |
DADE |
1008 |
1,525 |
66.10% |
T+65 |
DAWSON |
2,955 |
4,163 |
70.98% |
T+68 |
DECATUR |
2,249 |
3,347 |
67.19% |
T+17 |
DEKALB |
128,181 |
174,683 |
73.38% |
B+67 |
DODGE |
1,280 |
1,869 |
68.49% |
T+46 |
DOOLY |
734 |
1,092 |
67.22% |
T+6 |
DOUGHERTY |
8,120 |
14,796 |
54.88% |
B+40 |
DOUGLAS |
17,802 |
26,796 |
66.44% |
B+25 |
EARLY |
1019 |
1,459 |
69.84% |
T+5 |
ECHOLS |
138 |
240 |
57.50% |
T+76 |
EFFINGHAM |
4,512 |
6,729 |
67.05% |
T+50 |
ELBERT |
1,948 |
2,709 |
71.91% |
T+36 |
EMMANUEL |
1,735 |
2,467 |
70.33% |
T+39 |
EVANS |
802 |
1,097 |
73.11% |
T+37 |
FANNIN |
3,555 |
4,553 |
78.08% |
T+65 |
FAYETTE |
16,873 |
25,241 |
66.85% |
T+7 |
FLOYD |
8,170 |
11,858 |
68.90% |
T+41 |
FORSYTH |
26,304 |
41,237 |
63.79% |
T+33 |
FRANKLIN |
2,222 |
2,733 |
81.30% |
T+69 |
FULTON |
134,435 |
213,223 |
63.05% |
B+46 |
GILMER |
3,350 |
4,470 |
74.94% |
T+64 |
GLASCOCK |
240 |
383 |
62.66% |
T+80 |
GLYNN |
9,766 |
14,118 |
69.17% |
T+23 |
GORDON |
3,969 |
5,406 |
73.42% |
T+63 |
GRADY |
2,186 |
3,382 |
64.64% |
T+32 |
GREENE |
2,691 |
4,207 |
63.96% |
T+26 |
GWINNET |
115,075 |
168,015 |
68.49% |
B+18 |
HABERSHAM |
3,972 |
5,685 |
69.87% |
T+64 |
HALL |
19,714 |
28,389 |
69.44% |
T+43 |
HANCOCK |
1,353 |
1,903 |
71.10% |
B+44 |
HARALSON |
2,082 |
3,021 |
68.92% |
T+74 |
HARRIS |
4,158 |
5,539 |
75.07% |
T+44 |
HART |
2,664 |
3,705 |
71.90% |
T+50 |
HEARD |
860 |
1,315 |
65.40% |
T+68 |
HENRY |
24,413 |
41,287 |
59.13% |
B+20 |
HOUSTON |
19,887 |
26,455 |
75.17% |
T+12 |
IRWIN |
565 |
944 |
59.85% |
T+51 |
JACKSON |
6,429 |
9,475 |
67.85% |
T+58 |
JASPER |
1,320 |
1,928 |
68.46% |
T+53 |
JEFF DAVIS |
764 |
1,241 |
61.56% |
T+64 |
JEFFERSON |
1,687 |
2,459 |
68.61% |
B+7 |
JENKINS |
685 |
1,130 |
60.62% |
T+26 |
JOHNSON |
647 |
1,070 |
60.47% |
T+40 |
JONES |
3,026 |
3,963 |
76.36% |
T+34 |
LAMAR |
1,616 |
2,422 |
66.72% |
T+41 |
LANIER |
580 |
892 |
65.02% |
T+42 |
LAURENS |
4,796 |
6,668 |
71.93% |
T+28 |
LEE |
2,309 |
3,480 |
66.35% |
T+45 |
LIBERTY |
5,502 |
8,045 |
68.39% |
B+24 |
LINCOLN |
988 |
1,536 |
64.32% |
T+38 |
LONG |
785 |
1,247 |
62.95% |
T+26 |
LOWNDES |
9,525 |
13,920 |
68.43% |
T+12 |
LUMPKIN |
3,141 |
4,409 |
71.24% |
T+58 |
MACON |
900 |
1,392 |
64.66% |
B+23 |
MADISON |
2,664 |
3,793 |
70.23% |
T+53 |
MARION |
712 |
1,018 |
69.94% |
T+27 |
MCDUFIE |
2,226 |
3,344 |
66.57% |
T+19 |
MCINTOSH |
1,591 |
2,339 |
68.02% |
T+21 |
MERIWETHER |
2,395 |
3,392 |
70.61% |
T+21 |
MILLER |
338 |
652 |
51.84% |
T+46 |
MITCHELL |
2,098 |
2,969 |
70.66% |
T+10 |
MONROE |
2,184 |
3,390 |
64.42% |
T+43 |
MONTGOMERY |
618 |
943 |
65.54% |
T+50 |
MORGAN |
1,862 |
2,848 |
65.38% |
T+42 |
MURRAY |
1,992 |
2,817 |
70.71% |
T+69 |
MUSCOGEE |
21,897 |
32,970 |
66.41% |
B+24 |
NEWTON |
14,511 |
19,971 |
72.66% |
B+11 |
OCONEE |
4,815 |
7,439 |
64.73% |
T+34 |
OGELTHORPE |
1,746 |
2,416 |
72.27% |
T+39 |
PAULDING |
18,067 |
26,380 |
68.49% |
T+29 |
PEACH |
2,353 |
3,843 |
61.23% |
T+5 |
PICKENS |
2,810 |
3,653 |
76.92% |
T+66 |
PIERCE |
1,182 |
1,881 |
62.84% |
T+75 |
PIKE |
1,460 |
2,185 |
66.82% |
T+71 |
POLK |
2,615 |
3,918 |
66.74% |
T+57 |
PULASKI |
611 |
870 |
70.23% |
T+39 |
PUTNAM |
3,019 |
4,285 |
70.46% |
T+41 |
QUITMAN |
164 |
314 |
52.23% |
T+10 |
RABUN |
2,539 |
3,279 |
77.43% |
T+57 |
RANDOLPH |
702 |
947 |
74.13% |
B+9 |
RICHMOND |
25,934 |
38,481 |
67.39% |
B+37 |
ROCKDALE |
13,314 |
17,470 |
76.21% |
B+41 |
SCHLEY |
299 |
431 |
69.37% |
T+59 |
SCREVEN |
1312 |
1,791 |
73.26% |
T+19 |
SEMINOLE |
581 |
893 |
65.06% |
T+35 |
SPALDING |
8,566 |
11,107 |
77.12% |
T+21 |
STEPHENS |
2,122 |
2,753 |
77.08% |
T+59 |
STEWART |
435 |
646 |
67.34% |
B+19 |
SUMTER |
3,495 |
4,266 |
81.93% |
B+5 |
TALBOT |
1,058 |
1,566 |
67.56% |
B+20 |
TALIAFERRO |
267 |
377 |
70.82% |
B+22 |
TATTNAL |
1,290 |
1,984 |
65.02% |
T+49 |
TAYLOR |
676 |
1,144 |
59.09% |
T+27 |
TELFAIR |
1064 |
1,297 |
82.04% |
T+31 |
TERRELL |
1,163 |
1,552 |
74.94% |
B+8 |
THOMAS |
4,356 |
6,053 |
71.96% |
T+19 |
TIFT |
2,628 |
4,101 |
64.08% |
T+34 |
TOOMBS |
1,998 |
3,181 |
62.81% |
T+45 |
TOWNS |
1,994 |
2,660 |
74.96% |
T+61 |
TREUTLEN |
519 |
809 |
64.15% |
T+37 |
TROUP |
5,777 |
8,354 |
69.15% |
T+22 |
TURNER |
502 |
819 |
61.29% |
T+25 |
TWIGGS |
978 |
1,441 |
67.87% |
T+7 |
UNION |
3,282 |
4,788 |
68.55% |
T+63 |
UPSON |
2,568 |
3,772 |
68.08% |
T+34 |
WALKER |
5,696 |
7,535 |
75.59% |
T+59 |
WALTON |
9,783 |
14,542 |
67.27% |
T+49 |
WARE |
2,979 |
4,366 |
68.23% |
T+40 |
WARREN |
702 |
996 |
70.48% |
B+11 |
WASHINGTON |
2,779 |
3,424 |
81.16% |
B+.71 |
WAYNE |
1,963 |
2,839 |
69.14% |
T+57 |
WEBSTER |
280 |
457 |
61.27% |
T+8 |
WHEELER |
380 |
557 |
68.22% |
T+39 |
WHITE |
2,891 |
4,091 |
70.67% |
T+66 |
WHITFIELD |
6,053 |
8,917 |
67.88% |
T+41 |
WILCOX |
541 |
778 |
69.54% |
T+47 |
WILKES |
1,178 |
1,721 |
68.45% |
T+13 |
WILKINSON |
794 |
1,207 |
65.78% |
T+12 |
WORTH |
1,656 |
2,251 |
73.57% |
T+48 |
|
Now what does this all mean?
In comparing the 2020 general to the 2020 runoff:
1. 1,229,917 ballots have been requested compared to 1,782,580 for the General
2. Percentage wise, that means the runoff is at 69% of the requests compared to the General. Increase of ~1.7% from the last posting
3. Of the 1,229,917 ballot requests, 768,814 (23K increase) are from Biden counties, and 461,103 (10K increase) are from Trump counties.
4. In the general, out of the 1,782,580 requests, 1,117,802 came from Biden counties and 664,778 came from trump counties.
5. That means, Biden counties are currently requesting 68.78% (2.1% increase from the last posting) of the ballots when compared to the 2020 general and Trump counties are requesting 69.36% (1.4% increase from the last posting).
6. Overall, for the runoff, Biden counties have requested 62.51% (.23% increase from the last posting) of all mail ballots and Trump counties have requested 37.49% (.23% decrease from the last posting). In the General, this % was 62.71% for Biden counties and 37.29% for Trump counties.
7. Raw numbers wise; Democratic counties currently have a 307,711 application edge (increase of 14K votes from the last posting) on GOP counties out of 1,229,917 ballot requests. In the General, Democratic counties had a 453,024 edge on GOP counties out of 1,782,580 ballot requests.
One note I will mention is, because mail ballots have been skewing Dem pretty heavily, even the Trump counties aren’t as red as they seem.
I have no idea what in-person early voting will look like or day of voting. Early voting starts on December 14th.
Mail ballot returns
Mail Ballot returns
Couny |
2020 runoff mail ballot returns |
2020 Mail GE ballot returns |
Percent |
2020 Runoff Mail
Ballot Request |
2020 runoff returned % |
2020 winner |
APPLING |
505 |
1,533 |
32.94% |
1,451 |
34.80% |
T +57% |
ATKINSON |
51 |
297 |
17.17% |
246 |
20.73% |
T +47 |
BACON |
195 |
691 |
28.22% |
624 |
31.25% |
T+73 |
BAKER |
0 |
375 |
0.00% |
337 |
0.00% |
T+16 |
BALDWIN |
213 |
4,337 |
4.91% |
5,247 |
4.06% |
B+1.3 |
BANKS |
1 |
1,387 |
0.07% |
1,201 |
0.08% |
T+78 |
BARROW |
2,462 |
7,893 |
31.19% |
7,153 |
34.42% |
T+43 |
BARTOW |
3,049 |
10,632 |
28.68% |
9,097 |
33.52% |
T+51 |
BEN HILL |
417 |
1260 |
33.10% |
1177 |
35.43% |
T+26 |
BERRIEN |
286 |
1134 |
25.22% |
1096 |
26.09% |
T+67 |
BIBB |
3,401 |
19,800 |
17.18% |
17,782 |
19.13% |
B+24 |
BLECKLEY |
383 |
1057 |
36.23% |
959 |
39.94% |
T+53 |
BRANTLEY |
181 |
897 |
20.18% |
795 |
22.77% |
T+81 |
BROOKS |
413 |
1,636 |
25.24% |
1,499 |
27.55% |
T+21 |
BRYAN |
1,180 |
3,783 |
31.19% |
3,572 |
33.03% |
T+35 |
BULLOCH |
2,192 |
6,480 |
33.83% |
6,453 |
33.97% |
T+24 |
BURKE |
341 |
2,522 |
13.52% |
1,399 |
24.37% |
T+1.8 |
BUTTS |
670 |
2,144 |
31.25% |
1,908 |
35.12% |
T+44 |
CALHOUN |
229 |
590 |
38.81% |
630 |
36.35% |
B+15 |
CAMDEN |
1,862 |
5,053 |
36.85% |
4,558 |
40.85% |
T+31 |
CANDLER |
191 |
745 |
25.64% |
676 |
28.25% |
T+42 |
CARROL |
2,537 |
9,499 |
26.71% |
8,987 |
28.23% |
T+39 |
CATOOSA |
2,168 |
5,187 |
41.80% |
5,163 |
41.99% |
T+56 |
CHARLTON |
269 |
695 |
38.71% |
654 |
41.13% |
T+51 |
CHATHAM |
7,378 |
41,597 |
17.74% |
40,422 |
18.25% |
B+19 |
CHATTAHOCHEE |
91 |
302 |
30.13% |
283 |
32.16% |
T+13 |
CHATTOOGA |
677 |
1,792 |
37.78% |
1,617 |
41.87% |
T+62 |
CHEROKEE |
9,566 |
37,782 |
25.32% |
35,151 |
27.21% |
T+39 |
CLARKE |
0 |
18,731 |
0.00% |
14,873 |
0.00% |
B+42 |
CLAY |
34 |
405 |
8.40% |
407 |
8.35% |
B+11 |
CLAYTON |
2,515 |
31,533 |
7.98% |
30,897 |
8.14% |
B+71 |
CLINCH |
103 |
362 |
28.45% |
321 |
32.09% |
T+47 |
COBB |
29,751 |
149,811 |
19.86% |
135,461 |
21.96% |
B+14 |
COFFEE |
353 |
1,930 |
18.29% |
1,669 |
21.15% |
T+40 |
COLQUITT |
286 |
2,603 |
10.99% |
2,483 |
11.52% |
T+47 |
COLUMBIA |
5,693 |
16,919 |
33.65% |
16,026 |
35.52% |
T+26 |
COOK |
345 |
1016 |
33.96% |
1003 |
34.40% |
T+40 |
COWETA |
5,453 |
19,151 |
28.47% |
17,194 |
31.71% |
T+36 |
CRAWFORD |
315 |
1101 |
28.61% |
1104 |
28.53% |
T+46 |
CRISP |
594 |
1,684 |
35.27% |
1,631 |
36.42% |
T+25 |
DADE |
310 |
1034 |
29.98% |
1008 |
30.75% |
T+65 |
DAWSON |
406 |
3,084 |
13.16% |
2,955 |
13.74% |
T+68 |
DECATUR |
876 |
2,343 |
37.39% |
2,249 |
38.95% |
T+17 |
DEKALB |
30,372 |
128,634 |
23.61% |
128,181 |
23.69% |
B+67 |
DODGE |
425 |
1,307 |
32.52% |
1,280 |
33.20% |
T+46 |
DOOLY |
236 |
745 |
31.68% |
734 |
32.15% |
T+6 |
DOUGHERTY |
1,455 |
10,370 |
14.03% |
8,120 |
17.92% |
B+40 |
DOUGLAS |
3,036 |
19,736 |
15.38% |
17,802 |
17.05% |
B+25 |
EARLY |
378 |
1110 |
34.05% |
1019 |
37.10% |
T+5 |
ECHOLS |
42 |
158 |
26.58% |
138 |
30.43% |
T+76 |
EFFINGHAM |
1,602 |
4,976 |
32.19% |
4,512 |
35.51% |
T+50 |
ELBERT |
659 |
2,054 |
32.08% |
1,948 |
33.83% |
T+36 |
EMMANUEL |
622 |
1,727 |
36.02% |
1,735 |
35.85% |
T+39 |
EVANS |
282 |
854 |
33.02% |
802 |
35.16% |
T+37 |
FANNIN |
851 |
3,459 |
24.60% |
3,555 |
23.94% |
T+65 |
FAYETTE |
2,408 |
18,838 |
12.78% |
16,873 |
14.27% |
T+7 |
FLOYD |
837 |
8,732 |
9.59% |
8,170 |
10.24% |
T+41 |
FORSYTH |
2,385 |
30,972 |
7.70% |
26,304 |
9.07% |
T+33 |
FRANKLIN |
666 |
2,044 |
32.58% |
2,222 |
29.97% |
T+69 |
FULTON |
8,803 |
143,890 |
6.12% |
134,435 |
6.55% |
B+46 |
GILMER |
1,276 |
3,496 |
36.50% |
3,350 |
38.09% |
T+64 |
GLASCOCK |
69 |
262 |
26.34% |
240 |
28.75% |
T+80 |
GLYNN |
1,287 |
10,318 |
12.47% |
9,766 |
13.18% |
T+23 |
GORDON |
1,494 |
4,075 |
36.66% |
3,969 |
37.64% |
T+63 |
GRADY |
671 |
2,247 |
29.86% |
2,186 |
30.70% |
T+32 |
GREENE |
1,048 |
2,849 |
36.78% |
2,691 |
38.94% |
T+26 |
GWINNET |
28,200 |
124,400 |
22.67% |
115,075 |
24.51% |
B+18 |
HABERSHAM |
1,172 |
4,272 |
27.43% |
3,972 |
29.51% |
T+64 |
HALL |
5,238 |
21,740 |
24.09% |
19,714 |
26.57% |
T+43 |
HANCOCK |
439 |
1,479 |
29.68% |
1,353 |
32.45% |
B+44 |
HARALSON |
762 |
2,498 |
30.50% |
2,082 |
36.60% |
T+74 |
HARRIS |
1,082 |
4,266 |
25.36% |
4,158 |
26.02% |
T+44 |
HART |
893 |
2,612 |
34.19% |
2,664 |
33.52% |
T+50 |
HEARD |
310 |
989 |
31.34% |
860 |
36.05% |
T+68 |
HENRY |
5,097 |
29,437 |
17.31% |
24,413 |
20.88% |
B+20 |
HOUSTON |
3,887 |
20,418 |
19.04% |
19,887 |
19.55% |
T+12 |
IRWIN |
169 |
618 |
27.35% |
565 |
29.91% |
T+51 |
JACKSON |
2,219 |
7,352 |
30.18% |
6,429 |
34.52% |
T+58 |
JASPER |
414 |
1,486 |
27.86% |
1,320 |
31.36% |
T+53 |
JEFF DAVIS |
224 |
819 |
27.35% |
764 |
29.32% |
T+64 |
JEFFERSON |
537 |
1,708 |
31.44% |
1,687 |
31.83% |
B+7 |
JENKINS |
186 |
758 |
24.54% |
685 |
27.15% |
T+26 |
JOHNSON |
222 |
759 |
29.25% |
647 |
34.31% |
T+40 |
JONES |
1,061 |
3,009 |
35.26% |
3,026 |
35.06% |
T+34 |
LAMAR |
561 |
1,769 |
31.71% |
1,616 |
34.72% |
T+41 |
LANIER |
159 |
563 |
28.24% |
580 |
27.41% |
T+42 |
LAURENS |
250 |
5,122 |
4.88% |
4,796 |
5.21% |
T+28 |
LEE |
880 |
2,493 |
35.30% |
2,309 |
38.11% |
T+45 |
LIBERTY |
2,139 |
5,668 |
37.74% |
5,502 |
38.88% |
B+24 |
LINCOLN |
367 |
1085 |
33.82% |
988 |
37.15% |
T+38 |
LONG |
98 |
758 |
12.93% |
785 |
12.48% |
T+26 |
LOWNDES |
2,755 |
9,379 |
29.37% |
9,525 |
28.92% |
T+12 |
LUMPKIN |
536 |
3,341 |
16.04% |
3,141 |
17.06% |
T+58 |
MACON |
230 |
849 |
27.09% |
900 |
25.56% |
B+23 |
MADISON |
904 |
2,970 |
30.44% |
2,664 |
33.93% |
T+53 |
MARION |
273 |
779 |
35.04% |
712 |
38.34% |
T+27 |
MCDUFIE |
630 |
2,440 |
25.82% |
2,226 |
28.30% |
T+19 |
MCINTOSH |
603 |
1,698 |
35.51% |
1,591 |
37.90% |
T+21 |
MERIWETHER |
636 |
2,501 |
25.43% |
2,395 |
26.56% |
T+21 |
MILLER |
137 |
489 |
28.02% |
338 |
40.53% |
T+46 |
MITCHELL |
593 |
2,208 |
26.86% |
2,098 |
28.27% |
T+10 |
MONROE |
515 |
2,475 |
20.81% |
2,184 |
23.58% |
T+43 |
MONTGOMERY |
220 |
668 |
32.93% |
618 |
35.60% |
T+50 |
MORGAN |
679 |
2,016 |
33.68% |
1,862 |
36.47% |
T+42 |
MURRAY |
779 |
2,079 |
37.47% |
1,992 |
39.11% |
T+69 |
MUSCOGEE |
734 |
24,777 |
2.96% |
21,897 |
3.35% |
B+24 |
NEWTON |
4,134 |
15,585 |
26.53% |
14,511 |
28.49% |
B+11 |
OCONEE |
1,101 |
5,856 |
18.80% |
4,815 |
22.87% |
T+34 |
OGELTHORPE |
574 |
1,854 |
30.96% |
1,746 |
32.88% |
T+39 |
PAULDING |
3,508 |
20,474 |
17.13% |
18,067 |
19.42% |
T+29 |
PEACH |
156 |
2,574 |
6.06% |
2,353 |
6.63% |
T+5 |
PICKENS |
0 |
2,913 |
0.00% |
2,810 |
0.00% |
T+66 |
PIERCE |
389 |
1,303 |
29.85% |
1,182 |
32.91% |
T+75 |
PIKE |
463 |
1,463 |
31.65% |
1,460 |
31.71% |
T+71 |
POLK |
888 |
2,831 |
31.37% |
2,615 |
33.96% |
T+57 |
PULASKI |
230 |
683 |
33.67% |
611 |
37.64% |
T+39 |
PUTNAM |
841 |
3,298 |
25.50% |
3,019 |
27.86% |
T+41 |
QUITMAN |
26 |
231 |
11.26% |
164 |
15.85% |
T+10 |
RABUN |
902 |
2,613 |
34.52% |
2,539 |
35.53% |
T+57 |
RANDOLPH |
315 |
680 |
46.32% |
702 |
44.87% |
B+9 |
RICHMOND |
942 |
28,094 |
3.35% |
25,934 |
3.63% |
B+37 |
ROCKDALE |
3,950 |
12,631 |
31.27% |
13,314 |
29.67% |
B+41 |
SCHLEY |
133 |
317 |
41.96% |
299 |
44.48% |
T+59 |
SCREVEN |
444 |
1309 |
33.92% |
1312 |
33.84% |
T+19 |
SEMINOLE |
206 |
549 |
37.52% |
581 |
35.46% |
T+35 |
SPALDING |
1,357 |
7,890 |
17.20% |
8,566 |
15.84% |
T+21 |
STEPHENS |
44 |
2,194 |
2.01% |
2,122 |
2.07% |
T+59 |
STEWART |
196 |
484 |
40.50% |
435 |
45.06% |
B+19 |
SUMTER |
1,250 |
2,885 |
43.33% |
3,495 |
35.77% |
B+5 |
TALBOT |
463 |
1,190 |
38.91% |
1,058 |
43.76% |
B+20 |
TALIAFERRO |
79 |
302 |
26.16% |
267 |
29.59% |
B+22 |
TATTNAL |
488 |
1,381 |
35.34% |
1,290 |
37.83% |
T+49 |
TAYLOR |
126 |
782 |
16.11% |
676 |
18.64% |
T+27 |
TELFAIR |
393 |
984 |
39.94% |
1064 |
36.94% |
T+31 |
TERRELL |
496 |
1,126 |
44.05% |
1,163 |
42.65% |
B+8 |
THOMAS |
1,386 |
4,127 |
33.58% |
4,356 |
31.82% |
T+19 |
TIFT |
587 |
2,716 |
21.61% |
2,628 |
22.34% |
T+34 |
TOOMBS |
311 |
2,326 |
13.37% |
1,998 |
15.57% |
T+45 |
TOWNS |
688 |
1,951 |
35.26% |
1,994 |
34.50% |
T+61 |
TREUTLEN |
143 |
581 |
24.61% |
519 |
27.55% |
T+37 |
TROUP |
2,194 |
6,459 |
33.97% |
5,777 |
37.98% |
T+22 |
TURNER |
162 |
528 |
30.68% |
502 |
32.27% |
T+25 |
TWIGGS |
364 |
1057 |
34.44% |
978 |
37.22% |
T+7 |
UNION |
1,404 |
3,600 |
39.00% |
3,282 |
42.78% |
T+63 |
UPSON |
855 |
2,786 |
30.69% |
2,568 |
33.29% |
T+34 |
WALKER |
2,720 |
5,848 |
46.51% |
5,696 |
47.75% |
T+59 |
WALTON |
1,582 |
10,448 |
15.14% |
9,783 |
16.17% |
T+49 |
WARE |
1,230 |
2,969 |
41.43% |
2,979 |
41.29% |
T+40 |
WARREN |
156 |
739 |
21.11% |
702 |
22.22% |
B+11 |
WASHINGTON |
969 |
2,492 |
38.88% |
2,779 |
34.87% |
B+.71 |
WAYNE |
735 |
2,127 |
34.56% |
1,963 |
37.44% |
T+57 |
WEBSTER |
95 |
351 |
27.07% |
280 |
33.93% |
T+8 |
WHEELER |
124 |
387 |
32.04% |
380 |
32.63% |
T+39 |
WHITE |
1,093 |
3,000 |
36.43% |
2,891 |
37.81% |
T+66 |
WHITFIELD |
2,264 |
6,526 |
34.69% |
6,053 |
37.40% |
T+41 |
WILCOX |
209 |
557 |
37.52% |
541 |
38.63% |
T+47 |
WILKES |
456 |
1,229 |
37.10% |
1,178 |
38.71% |
T+13 |
WILKINSON |
288 |
866 |
33.26% |
794 |
36.27% |
T+12 |
WORTH |
518 |
1,601 |
32.35% |
1,656 |
31.28% |
T+48 |
|
What do the mail ballot return numbers mean? It’s very early, I wouldn’t start reading “tea leaves” until we get to 750K returned mail ballots.
In comparing the 2020 general to the 2020 runoff:
1. 260,263 ballots have been returned compared to 1,320,154 for the General
2. Percentage wise, that means the runoff is at 19.71% (4.5% increase from the last posting) of the returns compared to the General.
3. Of the 260,263 ballot returns, 137,513 are from Biden counties (33K increase since the last posting), and 122,750 are from Trump counties (26K increase since the last posting).
4. In the general, out of the 1,320,154 returns, 823,960 came from Biden counties and 496,194 came from trump counties.
5. That means, Biden counties are currently returning 16.69% of the ballots (4% increase since the last posting) when compared to the 2020 general and Trump counties are returning 24.74% (5% increase since the last posting)
6. Overall, for the runoff, Biden counties have returned 51.78% of all mail ballots (1% increase since the last posting) and Trump counties have returned 48.22% (1% decrease since the last posting). In the General, this % was 62.41% for Biden counties and 37.59% for Trump counties.
7. Raw numbers wise; Democratic counties currently have a 14,763 mail return edge (7K increase since the last posting) on GOP counties out of 200,995 ballot returns. In the General, Democratic counties had a 327,766 edge on GOP counties out of 1,320,514 ballot returns.
I really wouldn’t take much from the mail return stats right now. A lot of counties are either sitting at 0 or haven’t even broken 1,000 returns. I’m not sure what the reason is for that. Fulton county finally started processing ballots.
Early in person voting starts today! I think I’ll track the number of votes and how it changes, and the demographic profile of the voters, and how it changes per day.