First, a message of gratitude to all the hard-working volunteers and staffers who made the Biden-Harris victory possible. We finally secured our win, exactly 4 years after the day of infamy!
While the change in administration will greatly ease the design/funding/construction of transit projects (no more Elaine Chao holding California High Speed Rail funds hostage), the disappointing election results mean that a transformative nationwide infrastructure bill will unfortunately not come to pass. Much like how the presidential election results fell short of hopes of a reverse 1980 landslide, the state/local level featured a lot of “one step forward, one step back” developments.
Transit-related ballot measures endured severe headwinds this cycle. With agencies facing their worst crisis in history due to ridership dropping by 90% in some places, I initially feared that voters would see no justification for raising taxes when the roads/rails were empty, especially combined with their own economic troubles. Instead, I was decently surprised when nearly every one passed, and often by solid margins.
www.pewtrusts.org/…
These and other election developments are highlighted below:
New York
The NY state senate is now securely in Democratic hands (i.e. one seat above supermajority threshold) so Cuomo has less room to play games with the budget. The incoming progressives in the legislature will no doubt push for green initiatives, but given how NY is already spending massively on other projects (LIRR East Side Access, 2nd Avenue subway, LGA/JFK reconstruction, new Penn Station), simply maintaining current funding levels for the MTA would be a win. As such, the “elephant in the room”, replacement of the Hudson River rail tunnels, is once again at the mercy of outside forces. One can only hope that Congressional Republicans are amenable to negotiation, in that we give them more rural subsidies and they fund this vital link for “coastal elites”. At least Chris Christie, a longtime enemy of this project, is gone for good! www.bloomberg.com/…
Atlanta
The second attempt in the past few years to expand transit in Gwinnet County narrowly failed by about 1000 votes out of more than 400K cast. Despite this, Gwinnett voters supported Biden by 16 points, flipped a US House and GA state senate seat, and handed the Dems a 5-0 majority on the county commission.
movinghenryforward.org/…
Interviews with officials reveal some insights as to why the initiative lost. Some think the Republican commissioners only half-heartedly endorsed the measure and sabotaged it by placing it on the ballot only in late July, giving pro-transit groups less time to campaign and run ads. Of course, the most obvious and insidious reason is once again racism:
An opposition website tied MARTA to the spread of the coronavirus...there were a lot of voters who once they learned MARTA was still a piece, that was enough for them to vote against it
I have faith the new Dem majority on the commission will do a proper voter education campaign when they decide to try a referendum again. Third time is the charm!
www.masstransitmag.com/…
Orlando
The commuter rail service Sunrail already covers Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties, and all of their delegates on the central FL board voted to expand the system north into Volusia County. In true Florida-man spirit, Volusia County voted against the plan: www.masstransitmag.com/…
This might not be that bad though, as Brightline (the privately operated high-speed line that runs between Orlando and Miami) wants to extend its service west to Disney World and Tampa. The connection between the two systems will be at MCO airport, though there is currently no funding source identified for such a link: www.masstransitmag.com/…
Midwest
A couple short items:
Illinois’ progressive tax amendment failed, with only Cook and Champaign counties voting in favor. While this might not impact transit directly, it could hinder the state’s ability to borrow for future projects (i.e. issuing bonds at lower quality ratings results in higher interest costs).
Minnesota Dems failed to pick up the state senate by 1 seat. This effectively kills any momentum for additional rail service from the Twin Cities to Duluth or Chicago. Strangely enough, Wisconsin Republicans (who dominate their state legislature) were willing to cooperate on funding the MSP-CHI train: www.masstransitmag.com/...
Austin
Proposition A passed 58-42, notably less than the 72% Biden received in Travis County (sensing a pattern here?) www.masstransitmag.com/...
This is an unambiguous win, as TX Republicans’ anti-transit stance is softening every year the state inches closer to blue. Previously you had them passing state laws to overturn local taxes for special projects like these, but as I described in previous editions, even Ted Cruz is now supporting light rail expansion in the DFW area. While it would be even better to have elected a Dem state house, the funding source is fairly sound (relying on property taxes) and the rail lines actually go where people want to go (Airport, UTexas campus via a downtown tunnel to avoid congestion). Most interestingly, there will also be a pool of money to placate the NIMBYs and prevent gentrification:
The city of Austin will begin putting together what city leaders are calling an Equity Assessment Tool that borrows from the highly influential University of Texas report on gentrification Uprooted. The city intends to use the tool as a way to figure out how to spend the $300 million included in Prop A to counteract the gentrification building a mass transit system could spark.
The $300 million will be used for housing subsidies that will help maintain that affordable housing. Those programs could include rent subsidies, home repair and financial assistance for property owners at risk of displacement because of rising property values. It could even mean the city buys some housing along the routes to maintain its affordability.
Hmm, this sounds awfully close to the “S” word…
Las Vegas
Clark County authorities have finally made up their minds as to the preferred mode of rail transport that the city has long been waiting for. (Anecdotally, according to hotel staff, one of the most frequent questions from tourists is when will the airport be connected to the Strip?)
lasvegassun.com/...
By a 12-1 tally, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority board voted to eliminate a monorail transit system noncompete agreement designed to keep companies from creating transportation options to the east of Las Vegas Boulevard.
The long term goal is to scrap the monorail (which has a long history of financial problems and also very limited capacity to meet increased demand) and build a proper underground transit system. I am actually optimistic about prospects of this happening since 1) Dems control the trifecta for the first time since 1998, 2) business interests are definitely pushing for denser development (see the enthusiasm for the new Raiders/Golden Knights stadiums in relatively central locations), and 3) the state is following up on its commitment for a different project (connecting LV to LAX with HSR).
Thank you again, Harry Reid.
San Francisco
This brings us to California, which despite being a very liberal state has had no shortage of troubles with transit in recent years, even beyond the CA HSR crisis.
Voters in some of the bluest counties in the country gave just enough support (70%) to clear the 2/3 to preserve funding for Caltrain, which runs between SF and San Jose. www.masstransitmag.com/...
The sales tax averts a shutdown, funds electrification of the train line and provides dedicated funding for the next three decades. It also bankrolls an equity plan to provide fares at half-price to low-income riders
Beyond this, the rest of the state is a mixed bag. Proposition 15, which would have greatly equalized the tax burden between residential and commercial properties (the latter which get away with outdated and absurdly low assessments) failed, depriving the state of a valuable source of revenue. I’m sure all of you remember the last time CA faced a severe budget crisis (under Ahnold), and I’m afraid Newsom will stall all progressive legislation going forward. He already pared back some of the CA HSR plans earlier this year, and who knows much will be sacrificed to keep the LA 2028 Olympics afloat. With gridlock likely to persist in DC, we are really counting on big blue states like CA and NY to step up and lead the way on measures to combat climate change (transit being a key part).
Portland
www.masstransitmag.com/...
This one was inexplicable, to me at least. Biden improved on HRC’s numbers in Oregon significantly, and Portland is a fairly educated area with a well-run transit system that transcends the “corrupt inner-city” label that describes some other cities’ agencies. Yet an onslaught of spending from big businesses (mainly Nike) killed a corporate payroll tax that would have funded a light rail line as well as highway safety and bus service improvements. The vote was not close at all either, 42-58, and was the first measure defeated since 2011. And just like Trump and his supporters, the business lobbyists are acting smug, disdainful, and ignorant of the facts:
Neither the proponents nor opponents could clearly articulate what changes would need to happen to restart negotiations, but it’s clear the business groups want to see some signs Metro Council has changed its tune.
“Metro spent two years on sausage-making the proposal, two weeks settling on a payroll tax plan and two hours exempting public entities from footing the bill”
“If they immediately start talking about the negotiating table, they will have missed the point”
Luckily, Dems have solid majorities at all levels in Oregon so hopefully we don’t fall into the trap of surrendering and giving Republicans everything they want. I think a better run campaign would get the measure passed, similar to the Gwinnett County example above.
Something to look forward to:
In the spirit of the holiday season, I would like to end on a positive note. The Federal Railroad Administration, after 12 years of legal wrangling, will finally implement its “on-time” rule for freight railroads that host Amtrak routes (90% of its network). www.masstransitmag.com/…
Basically, it states that 80% of all trains must arrive within 15 minutes of scheduled time. I have no idea how this will be legally enforced, but at the very least it will hold the freight railroads accountable for the dismal on-time performance numbers that have plagued the Amtrak system since its inception.
This is a victory for Amtrak customers and for anyone who believes people and communities across the country deserve a world-class passenger rail network with schedules that you can count on. For too long, many freight railroads have put their cargo ahead of our passengers – in direct opposition to the law. This rule will help Amtrak enforce its rights when they are violated, in order to get you to your destination on schedule.
What a great Christmas gift for Amtrak Joe!