Oregon, my home state, is pretty good politically. We’ve had vote-by-mail for decades, and automatic registration for a good while, too. It’s easy to vote here, and so Democrats regularly win large majorities, and the state is able to actually govern and offset some of the willful failure of the Republican-controlled Federal government.
Two problems exist with an otherwise excellent map: the existence of one vast sprawling district covering 2/3 of the state’s area, that is unwinnable by Democrats and spoils an otherwise perfect Congressional delegation; and the ability of the Republican state legislative minority to block good legislation by walking out and denying us a quorum. With a Democratic supermajority in both houses and a new incoming Democratic Secretary of State who will draw the districts unilaterally if the Republicans walk out of the legislature, we are able to fix both problems. And I’m going to show you how to do it.
My Congressional map assumes the projected addition of a sixth Congressional district, and is drawn to preserve county boundaries over making solid shapes. Of Oregon’s 36 counties, 29 are completely within one district, and only the most populous county, Multnomah, is within more than two districts.
DISTRICT 1 (green): Polk, Yamhill, all but the easternmost part of Washington County. This is Suzanne Bonamici’s district, and the one that changes the least from the existing map. It represents the area that has experienced the highest population growth and must lose a part of Washington County. It also switched Clatsop and Columbia to the north for Polk in the South, and has a 57% Democratic PVI. Bonamici will hold it easily.
THE NEW DISTRICT 2 (purple): Has nothing in common with the old district 2 except the swing county of Jackson, which has nominated unsuccessful Democratic candidates for the old district for as long as I’ve been paying attention. Any one of them would have a much easier time running in my proposed new district, which also contains all of Josephine, Coos, Curry, Lincoln, Tillamook, Clatsop and Columbia counties, the coastal parts of Lane and Douglas (which are separated from the rest of their counties by the Coast mountain range), and extends into Multnomah west of the Willamette River and east of Washington County.
This district has a PVI of 55%Dem, and is anchored by Democrats in Ashland, NW Portland, and the ancestrally Democratic north and central coast, while absorbing Republicans from Josephine and Coos, who have long been a thorn in Pete DeFazio’s side. It is also the district most likely to flip to the Republicans if a really big red wave were to occur nationally. The Oregon coast is historically blue, but swung sharply to the Republicans in the 2020 elections, in what was one of the few sore spots for Oregon. My hope is that Oregon Democrats would use this district to respect and include the coast more, and run candidates from one of the coastal counties. A Jackson County Democrat would do well here too, but a nominee from Portland would be more likely to lose.
DISTRICT 3 (teal): Grant, Baker, Wheeler, Crook, Wallowa, Umatilla, Union, Morrow, Gilliam, Sherman, Wasco, Hood River, Northern and Eastern Multnomah. Don’t let the conservative eastern counties scare you. They are very thinly populated. The first ten are solid GOP but together make up about 30% of the district. Wasco, Hood River and Multnomah east of Portland are light blue and make up another 30%. The remaining 40% is in Portland and is the most solid blue voting bloc in the state. At a 67% Dem PVI, it’s the bluest district on my map and will re-elect Earl Blumenauer for as long as he cares to run.
I adhered to county lines on this district. If aesthetically pleasing borders are a higher priority, this district could easily absorb the eastern tips of Jefferson and Deschutes, extending one straight line along the western border of Crook County, and take in the northeast section of Clackamas, without any threat to the district’s Democratic lean.
DISTRICT 4 (grey): Benton, non-coastal Lane and Douglas, Klamath, Lake, Harney and Malheur. This was not quite enough population, so I added the core of Albany in Linn County, right next to Benton. This is Pete DeFazio’s district, and gives him a boost in Democratic strength (PVI 55%D) by removing three conservative southwestern counties to the new 2nd and most of Linn to the 6th, while adding four geographically large but much less populous Republican Southeastern districts. The only real new population center to deal with is Klamath Falls, population 21,000.
DISTRICT 5 (red): The remainder of Washington County, and the western parts of Multnomah, Clackamas and Marion. Bordered on the east by whichever is eastenmost of: I-5, the Willamette River, and the eastern city limits of Salem, and then east of that, alternately further into Portland for Democrats or the eastern Willamette valley for centrists and Republicans, to reach the goal of a 56% Dem PVI. This is a new district, made for the formerly red, blue trending city of Salem and Willamette Valley suburbs, with enough of Portland metro to keep it safely blue.
DISTRICT 6 (yellow): Deschutes, Jefferson, all of Linn except Albany, eastern Marion and Clackamas, and south-central Portland. The “everything else” district. Includes blue-trending Bend, a lot of the Cascade range and conservative rural land (a lot of which burned down this past September), and enough of Multnomah to give the district a 58% Dem PVI, the second highest of the six. Kurt Schraeder will have to be more attentive to his own party or risk a primary challenge.
THE LEGISLATURE: Oregon has a 30-seat Senate, each district of which composes two districts in the 60-seat lower House. Democrats currently hold supermajorities of 3/5 in both chambers (37 Representatives and 18 Senators in the 2021 legislature), but must increase their majority to a 2/3 super-DUPER majority in order to be able to govern without the Republicans blocking all legislation by refusing to show up for work. Fortunately, the bluest parts of the state have gained population and the reddest have lost population, so an aggressive legislative redistricting is easy.
My map below shows a proposed Senate redistricting with 7 solid Republican districts: Three in the east, two in the Southwest, and one on each side of the Willamette valley. The other 23 run the gamut from solid Democrat to competitive.
Key changes to the existing map:
East of the cascades is a new, Democratic-leaning Senate district (shown in pale green) made from what is currently the bluest parts of House districts 59 and 54. Wasco County; the Warm Springs reservation in western Jefferson; northwestern Deschutes, including Sisters, and Bend.
The Western Willamette Valley currently has a Republican gerrymander in which Senate districts 12 and 13 are long parallel snakes that pair one solid GOP house district with one weak D-leaning one, for narrow Republican victories. I’ve paired the two solid GOP districts and the northern Dem districts for a net gain of a Senate seat.
Salem, whose six total legislative seats evolved from 2D/4R to 5D/1R over the course of the decade, is compacted into a 6D region by removing Turner and Aumsville from SD10 and adding the south part of Keizer.
SD20 is absorbed into the northern Portland suburbs of Clackamas. Due to population growth in Portland Metro, Portland in effect gains a blue seat without even changing. HD39, the only red house district between districts 26 and 52 (and half of the only red Senate district) is absorbed by neighboring districts, and the House Republican leader, who currently runs in HD39, would likely run in the new HD18.
SD 5 and 26, now occupied by Republicans, are competitive as they are. I bolstered them a little bit, and added Bandon and removed parts of Coos Bay to the 9th in a last ditch effort to save the red-trending southern half of SD5, but didn’t change much else. SD26 currently elects Democrats in both of its House districts.
SD8, which currently has Albany and surrounding Lin County suburbs and only the Corvallis part of Benton (it was drawn in the last round to protect incumbent Frank Morse, one of the few moderate Republicans left, and since retired), has been changed to include all of Benton and just the blue part of Albany. The current Dem incumbent of HD16 could win either district, and the other would flip to Dem easily.
SD3 adds some light blue precincts in Josephine County and loses some conservative precincts at the North end of Medford. it *might* be possible so make two blue house seats out of this district, but it would break up Ashland along I-5.
Net result: 23 Senate districts and 45 House districts that favor Democrats at least somewhat. We could afford to lose a few and still have the super-DUPER majority needed to govern.
What do YOU think?