After my first maps of Minnesota and New Jersey I follow with my proposal of nonpartisan map of Pennsylvania.
The Keystone State is likely lose a seat so there will be 17 seats.
I started by the actual nonpartisan map of the Supreme Court and modified it with the 2018 Population Estimate.
Basically the old 9th and the old 12th are merged and the western districts tend to shift to east.
1st district: basically the same of Bucks County and a balance in Montgomery County. For Brian Fitzpatrick the challenge of keeping a light blue district is the same of ever.
2nd district: a majority minority district with one fifth black, one fifth latinx and half white. Brendan Boyle can retain it.
3rd district: a 62% black district, safe for Dwight Evans or for the Democrats.
4th district: more or less the same Montgomery County based district, safe for Madeleine Dean and the Democrats.
5th district: Delaware County and southern Philly are no more enough for this seat. I added the dark blue part of Chester County. Safe D for Mary Gay Scanlon.
6th district: Chester County is becoming very blue but the district lose the bluest part of the county. It is gaining the upper part of Berks County. It’s hard imagine Chrissy Houlahan lose this seat, but keep an eye on the heavy hispanic Reading trending red.
7th district: Leight Valley more or less as now. Susan Wild can lose in a red wave, otherwise she will keep this seat.
8th district: The Scranton-Wilkes Barre area is not so blue as some years ago but Monroe County and other exurban areas of NYC are helping Matt Cartwright. The problem could be that the home of Dan Meuser, the representative of the actual 9th, is in this district and Meuser is probably primaring Cartwright in this scenario.
9th district: it’s more the Keller district than the Meuser one. Anyway, safe R.
10th district: the Harrysburg-York based district gain the red Lebanon County, but if the Democrats can’t win it in the 2018 wave or with a strong candidate as DePasquale maybe it’s out of reach anyway. Likely R at least.
11th district: Lancaster based district. Too exurban to benefit the shift in Philadelphia suburbs and too much ruby red Amishes to be less than Safe R.
12th district: Tryng to keep the numbers of the actual map, the 18th is renumbered with the remaining number of the two merged district. Pittsburgh had a stellar performance for Democrats last month, so this district is Safe D. Mike Doyle had a primary in 2020 from a relatively unknown progressive but Pittsburgh Area has a lot of moderate incumbents in the State Assembly outsted by democratic socialist candidates in the last two cycles. So Doyle is more in danger in the spring of 2022 than in the fall.
13th district: maybe the most red district in the State, more or less as the actual map.
14th district: if I read “ancestrally Democrat” I think at this area. Westmoreland County is wholly in this district with a balance in Somerset. Today is deep red but Democrats have a deep bench in the County Offices. I think that Guy Reschenthaler is safe but the name that can scare him is a Trump pick… for Miss America.
15th district: fight with the 13th with the prize for the most red district in the State.
16th district: The actual 16th expand east, becoming redder. Mike Kelly is safe (unfortunately).
17th district: quintessentialy Tossup. It’s gaining some red areas but not moving the needle enough to call it Lean R. Conor Lamb maybe want a promotion in Washington or in Harrisburg, and an open seat in 2022 it’s very hard for the Democrats.
Recap:
5 SAFE D: 2-3-4-5-12
1 Likely D: 6
3 Lean D: 1-7-8
1 Tossup: 17
3 Likely R: 10-14-16
4 Safe R: 9-11-13-15