Every year, I like to make predictions as to how the year will go. At the end of the year, I like to grade myself. You can see my 2020 predictions here and my scoring on my 2020 predictions here. Below, then, are my 2021 predictions.
1) Warnock and Ossoff will win their Senate races in Georgia.
I base this prediction on a combination of factors: recent polls have both candidates ahead by modest margins, the Democrats had active campaign efforts already in place to crank out the Black vote, Democrats are out-raising and out-spending Republicans, and the GOP seems to be eating itself over the November results. The big thing working against this prediction is that the SOS is still a Republican interested in voter disenfranchisement.
2) Trump’s post-election grift will continue clean through 2021.
Whether he believes he won the election fair and square or not, Trump is all about his brand. Right now, his brand is that he was cheated out of a second term. He is not going to let that go, ever.
3) The City and State of New York will indict Trump on a host of white collar crimes.
Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. has active criminal investigations into the Trump family and their businesses. It’s likely that New York Attorney General Letitia James has similar investigations underway. Trump’s pardon power doesn’t extend to these jurisdictions, and if I had to guess, Trump will find himself under indictment by May 1.
4) COVID-19 deaths (2020 and 2021 combined) will exceed 660,000 Americans by July 1, 2021
As of right now, we’re at 330,000 deaths, and the rate is over 3000 per day. Unfortunately, the death rate is only going to go up as visitations during the Christmas and New Year holidays lead to more cases of COVID-19. And while we’re now rolling out the vaccine to the most vulnerable, we can’t roll out the vaccine fast enough to completely prevent the damage done by exponential growth aided by human greed, selfishness, and stupidity.
This prediction assumes that our hospital systems don’t spend the first few months of 2021 completely overwhelmed. If they do, deaths due to COVID and injuries and illnesses that could have been treated without COVID overwhelming the hospitals could top one million.
5) Democrats will win convincingly in Virginia, keeping the Governor’s seat and expanding their leads in both chambers of the legislature.
We’re still in the midst of a major political realignment, and part of that realignment is that Virginia is becoming a reliably blue state. I’m not exactly sure who will win the Democratic gubernatorial primary, only that whoever does will win the general election.
6) There will be another war in Southeastern Europe
You might have missed it with everything else going on, but this Autumn there was a six week long war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over territorial disputes that go back to the Cold War. By most accounts, Armenia found themselves overwhelmed by Azerbaijan’s drone warfare tactics. Importantly, three Great 20th Century Powers (Russia, France, the United States) negotiated several ceasefires that failed to stop the fighting. Just as importantly, the war did not settle even the majority of the territorial disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There’s a lot of other similar territorial disputes throughout the Balkans and the Caucacus, and the old NATO hegemony is still in decline.
7) The US will see a spike (at least 10%) in sexually transmitted diseases and unwanted pregnancies in late 2021.
The COVID-19 crisis, as brutal as it is, will taper off after mid-Summer as vaccines roll out to most Americans. Once this happens, people will be able to visit each other in person again without worrying about making each other sick. Millions of touch-starved and disaster-stricken Americans will want to bang, and it’s going to make the sexual explosion of 1967-1980 look like an episode of Leave It to Beaver.
Unfortunately not everyone is going to take the necessary precautions to prevent pregnancy and disease. This is in no small part because attempts to spread good information about safe and fun sex through social media are being actively stymied by social media companies, credit card companies, and increasingly, State and Federal government action. This is happening in the guise of preventing sex trafficking, and unfortunately, it is exactly the wrong action to take at the wrong time. State and local governments should take action now to prepare safe sex messaging and services for when COVID restrictions end.
8) The Peace and Neutrality for Taiwan ballot measure will go down in flames.
Last year’s elections show that the big issue in Taiwan is now Hong Kong. The DPP won in a landslide when the issue was an extradition bill that would have chipped away at HK’s independence. Now, HK’s independence is but a memory. Taiwanese voters are more skeptical of China than ever, and as a result, measures that are “soft on China” aren’t going to fly.
No football predictions this year, and why football needs to end.
For years I have ended my list with predictions about college and professional football. I have decided to end that practice altogether. Nearly every professional football player ends up with profound brain damage due to repeated impacts, and I can’t in good conscience enjoy the sport knowing what it’s doing to the players. Unfortunately, I think the only good solution to this is to discontinue the sport altogether, and I hate even that solution because it’s heavy handed. Until football either ends or finds a solution to the problem, every team owner and the NFL as an organization has blood on their hands.
What are your predictions this year?