Florida was once a minor electoral prize. It was part of the bad old segregationist Solid South for many years. Then, following World War II, Florida began to expand. It jumped from 8 electoral votes in 1948 to 10 in the next three elections, to 14 in ‘64 and ‘68, 17 in 72-80, to 21 in ‘84-’88, to 25 in ‘92-2000, to 27 in ‘04-’08. It now sits at 29 electoral votes, tied with New York as the third biggest prize of all. It has become the nation’s premier swing state. Republican presidential nominees tended to do well in Florida, a trend that was broken by Carter in ‘76, Clinton in ‘96, and Obama in both 2008 and 2012. (In my view Al Gore won the state in 2000, but we’ll set that aside for now.)
The number of votes cast by Floridians has expanded enormously as well. In 2000, 5,963,110 votes were cast (officially). Sixteen years later that total had risen to 9,502,747, a 59% increase. Both major parties devote huge resources to the state, understandably. The Republicans, unfortunately, dominate the state government, and this has made things tough for us. (Witness the 2000 controversy.)
In 2016, Florida went narrowly for the Orange Blight. The sad numbers (from Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections):
|
|
Donald J. Trump |
Michael R. Pence |
Republican |
4,617,886 |
48.60% |
29 |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
Timothy Kaine |
Democratic |
4,504,975 |
47.41% |
0 |
|
|
Gary Johnson |
William F. Weld |
Libertarian FL |
207,043 |
2.18% |
0 |
|
|
Write-ins |
- |
- |
82,762 |
0.87% |
0 |
|
|
Dr. Jill Stein |
Ajamu Baraka |
Green |
64,399 |
0.68% |
0 |
|
|
Other (+) |
- |
- |
25,682 |
0.27% |
The detailed numbers, from Politico, broken down by county, are here.
Well folks, lemme tell ya somethin’:
WE’RE GONNA TURN THOSE NUMBERS AROUND.
Let’s get into the nitty-gritty, as they say.
Counties That Went for Clinton:
Alachua, Broward (with 66.1%), Gadsden, Hillsborough (51.0%), Leon, Miami-Dade (with 63.2%), Orange (with 59.8%), Osceola, and Palm Beach (with 56.2%).
Counties Where Clinton was within striking distance:
Duval (-1.4), Jefferson (-5.0), Pinellas (-1.1), St. Lucie (-2.4), and Seminole (-1.5).
And as usual, Clinton got crushed in the small rural counties.
Florida’s electorate in 2018, broken down by demographic categories (from The South Florida Sun Sentinel):
Florida’s registered voters are 64 percent white, 16 percent Hispanic, and 13 percent black.
The difference between black and Hispanic voters is not as great as it looks on paper, MacManus said. Hispanics have lower turnout and black voters have higher turnout, making them about equal.
People born since 1965 — so-called Generation X, millennials and the youngest group, called Generation X or the Hashtag Generation — represent 52 percent of the state’s voters.
That’s up 2 percentage points from the 2016 election.
In 2016 81% of Florida’s Republicans voted, while only 74% of Florida’s Democrats did. Do you see why I’m a GOTV fanatic? If we had matched the Republicans, Clinton might have taken the state.
Turnout among younger voters (under 30), 56%. Turnout among voters 65 or older, 82%. A prominent expert in Florida politics has said that if younger voters had voted at a higher rate, Clinton would have won.
Demographics of Florida’s Democratic voters:
Democratic registered voters are 48 percent white, 29 percent black and 17 percent Hispanic...
Of registered Democrats, 45 percent are under age 50.
And the party’s registered voters are mostly women — 58 percent female and 40 percent male... Overall, the state’s registered voters are 53 percent female and 45 percent male.
Here are Florida’s voter registration numbers, broken down by party and county.
And special mention must be made of Florida’s Puerto Rican population, which is absolutely CRUCIAL to our chances in Florida. I’ve addressed this issue here: Puerto Rican Voters in Florida Are There for the Democrats, IF WE WORK TO WIN THEM!
Issues Affecting Florida’s Elections
Governor Ron DeSantis is a Trump-worshiping fanatic who will do everything, legal and illegal (imho) to keep the state in Trump’s column. He is already trying to game the system. And in November 2018 outgoing Florida governor and total scumbag/thief/criminal Rick Scott placed a REPUBLICAN in charge of voting in Broward County, the most Democratic county in Florida. Scott said he wanted a “team player”. (You can read about it here.) In truth, the Democratic supervisor did make mistakes. But that’s not really why she was replaced.
In November 2018 we suffered bitter defeats in Florida, losing both the Senate race and the governorship by razor-thin margins. And, with no evidence whatsoever, the Republicans claimed fraud. But a shining victory was the referendum on Amendment 4, the restoration of voting rights to ex-felons, a long-overdue measure. The amendment won overwhelmingly. Since then, DeSantis and the crooked Republican state legislature have thrown one roadblock after another in an attempt to weaken or kill it. (You can read about the controversy here. And here’s the ACLU’s take.) The reasons for these attempts should be painfully obvious.
Complicating matters, there is the issue of Russian cyber attacks on Florida’s voting process. You can read articles about it here and here. The Republicans claim no votes were altered. Will it happen again? In my view, almost certainly. Robert Mueller warned us the Russians intend to interfere again. We must assume Florida is one of their prime targets.
Local Groups You Can Work With in Florida
Andrew Gillum’s Forward Florida Action is pushing hard to expand the number of new Democratic voters. Help ‘em out!
Help the Florida Democratic Party.
Florida’s Democrats/progressives organize themselves into caucuses. You can find a comprehensive list of them here.
ActLocal has an AWESOME list of Florida progressive groups. Go check it out!
Indivisible deserves your support!
That oughta keep you out of trouble!
All About Voting in Florida
Register to Vote.
All about voting in Florida.
Florida Election Center from Vote.org.
There are people who argue we should abandon Florida, just concede it. My response is HELL NO. I don’t leave 29 electoral votes on the table in a state where we lost the 2018 Senate race by .25%.
The job of saving America is up to us.
And by god, we’re gonna carry the state where Mar-a-Lago is located—and make that goddamned orange shitgibbon like it.
GOTV. GOTV. GET OUT THE G-D DAMNED VOTE.
