Apropos of a spate of recent diaries, editorials, news stories, and “buzz” surrounding the current rise in Bernie Sanders’ polling numbers, both national and state-by-state, showing that Sanders is at the moment best-positioned to take at least a strong plurality of delegates to the National Convention…
There is clearly an issue that we, as Democrats committed to defeating Donal Trump, keeping the House, and reclaiming the Senate, need to deal with in direct fashion.
That issue is the perceived “electability” challenges that face Bernie Sanders’ candidacy, as well as the all-important “coattails” issue.
I write this as a person who supported Sanders in the 2016 primary, voted for and supported Clinton in the 2016 general election. Much of the body of this diary comes from two recent, and long comments I’ve written in the last week or so.
Here goes:
First, it is clear at the moment that Sanders is retaining a solid base of support of anywhere between 25% and 30% of the Democratic Base on a national level, and depending on state polls, is at worst in the high teens and at best in the low thirties on a state by state basis. His support among “progressives” remains strong, and his support in other political and demographic groups is on the rise both in terms of this year’s polling cycle and with respect to similar polling in 2016.
Of course this is all polling based, and of course it could all change as a function of the news cycle… or it could be an artifact of improper or unrepresentative sampling or statistics. Everything is fluid… but even so, that’s what is in the news, and that’s what all the top-level pollsters and poll analyst/aggregators are showing (and saying in their commentaries). So let’s go with it for the purposes of discussion.
Second, this has given rise to an enormous number of comments, articles, editorials, diaries, tweets, and etc. that are dedicated to the notion that this bodes extremely poorly for the Democratic Party as a whole. The basic storyline is as follows: Campaign strategists, analysts, experts, insiders, and office-holders at the local, state, and federal level are worried that Sanders’ image, baggage, history, and political stance will spell disaster. He will lose the Presidency by Mondale-like margins, and in the process lose us the House and cripple any hopes we have to regain the Senate. This will reverberate down to State-level races, and hamstring our current trajectory toward regaining the majority of Governorships and Legislatures.
Third, this is entirely predicated upon the stated-as-fact assumption that the “Oppo Book” — that collection of past votes, statements, speeches, actions, and on-the-record behaviors — on Sanders is so overwhelmingly large, and so incredibly damaging that the instant he becomes the presumptive nominee, the GOP will unleash a toxic load of un-refutable propaganda vomit that Sanders and the entire Democratic Party will be buried in such an enormous volume of shit that we’ll never recover, never have a chance to fight back. We’ll lose any chance of cross-over support from moderate Republicans who hate Trump, we’ll lose conservative Democrats in swing states, we’ll lose moderate Democrats in Democratic states, and maybe even lose Liberal Democrats in “safe” states.
So, to answer and respond to this in a way that is NOT “BernieBro vicious attacks on so-called centrist neoliberal party hacks out to kneecap “the revolution” and crush the hopes of the progressive movement”… here is what I have to say, as a voter quite happy to support Sanders:
(With the caveat that I will vote for any candidate who gets the Democratic Nomination, of course… and that I equally support Warren as well as Sanders, and will cast my primary vote for one of those two, whichever is strongest when my Primary comes around).
I propose the following:
Some Democratic candidate’s campaign, preferably one that is already “on the ropes” should step up and take the hit for the “greater good.” All of the warnings, prophecies of doom, and finger-wagging scolding in the world carries absolutely no weight.
Someone currently in the mix, competing for the nomination needs to put their money where the “experts” mouths are, and prove it.
If there’s a wheelbarrow full of destructive, toxic, crushing material out there… get it out in public now.
Just do it.
Run those ads, swamp the airwaves, and literally crush his candidacy right the fuck now!!!
A couple of points need to be addressed in the process:
1) It needs to be done by a candidate, directly and openly. If it’s dark money, PAC money, Committee money, anonymous, and so forth, it will drive at least 30% or more of Sanders’ supporters out of the party, and out of the party’s orbit for good. It cannot be secret, it cannot be a whisper campaign. Someone needs to stand up and just fucking do it.
There can be no room for the standard accusations (no matter how ridiculous or unfounded) that the DNC hacks have their fingers on the scales, that Sanders is getting robbed, that the DLC centrist neoliberal warmongers are gumming up the works and sabotaging the will of the electorate from their secret command posts… or whatever.
2) It needs to be comprehensive, and cover ALL the dirt. Not hints, not allusions. Drop it all on the floor. Unleash the hounds, cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war, and so forth.
- There are video clips, there are quotes, there are pictures, there is newspaper copy, there are transcripts. Fire up the digital media editing farms. Hire the copy editors and ad-writers. Cue the ominous voice-overs!
- There is a literal metric fuck-ton of money available. Use it. Saturate the airwaves, flood social media, put out full-page ads in the major national and regional newspapers. The money is there, waiting to be used… use it.
3) It needs to be done NOW. Early. As soon as possible. Get it done fast. If the material is devastating and crushes his campaign, his support base needs the time to get over it and get back on board with a different candidate.
Shit or get off the pot.
Someone needs to bring the heat, and bring it in the open, for all to see.
If, as commentator Polecat says: “If he’s got a weak left, we need to now right now”… then let’s get it out into the open as soon as possible.
If Sanders weathers the storm and comes through with flying colors, then he’s been vetted and has shown he can win, regardless of the baggage he may (or may not) be carrying. In addition, if all of that Oppo Material is released right now, then it’s out there. It’s dealt with, and people will have seen enormous volumes of negative material early on in the overall electoral cycle. Old news is boring. People have seen it, and say “whatever, I’ve seen this before, who cares?”
And if he crumbles, then we’ve got it over with fast, clean, sharp, and short, and then we can move on.
The timing is good right now — if it crushes him, it gets him out of the way so that the others can fight over ALL the votes and ALL delegates, not just the 50% to 70% or so (depending on apportionment and proportions in various states, of course) left over after he skims his current share off the top.
If it crushes him, then the vast bulk of his supporters will have the time to get angry, paranoid, sad… and then make the journey to processing/grieving/acceptance, and finally back to participation.
If it is done openly and in public and the result is that the electorate is repulsed and does not give him any more support, then the idea that party insiders sabotaged him goes away. People who support Sanders can take the “martyrdom” path to acceptance: “The American People are not ready for Sanders’ message”… or some such pablum. It becomes a fact of American Politics, not a consequence of sabotage or treachery.
(For reference, look at the consequences of the 1968 and 1972 conventions, and the (not unreasonable) suggestion that the Democratic Party sabotaged the candidate supported by the majority of Democrats)
If, on the other hand, Sanders and his campaign come back strong, counterpunch and evade effectively, and shake off the nonsense… retain and grow the current advantage, and continue accruing a strong plurality (or majority) of delegates, then we can be sure going into the convention that he’s taken the worst shots anyone could imagine, that all the dirt is out in the open, that the surprise attacks have been defused, and that any ambush can be slapped down as “old news, we’ve seen it, no one cares, fuck off”…
The candidate or campaign that takes this action will run a grave risk: if this gambit fails to topple Sanders, they will be quite literally, toast. Done. If the gambit succeeds, they will have gained the absolute hatred of a significant chunk of the Democratic Base. This is why it has to be someone whose campaign is already on life support and limping along. Kinda like what Gephardt did to Dean (to Kerry’s and Edwards’ benefit) in 2004.
It’s shitty, it’s nasty, it’ll hurt either way… but that’s politics.
It has to be done, and done now. It was an enormous mistake on the part of the Clinton Campaign in 2016 to pull punches, and to instead make insinuations. It allowed for whisper campaigns and unfounded, unsupported rumors and hints to circulate… and nothing ever actually came out that was anywhere near as bad as what was hinted in dark tones.
Fuck the insinuations and protestations.
Show your fucking cards… make it stick, prove you’ve got the goods…. or shut up.