I am no Nate Silver. I don’t pretend to be….okay, maybe I will.
The more I study it, the more I conclude everyone’s general gut feeling is about right even though the demographics have changed from 2016 to 2020. It’s all about Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Although I would probably put Michigan as a little more safe light blue and Pennsylvania as the absolute terrifying must have tipping point state. I’m already worried about the weather in Philadelphia on November 3rd. Pennsylvania is particularly scary because it all happens on election day. Early voting is a non-factor and nearly all the blue margin comes from a relatively small geographical area in and around Philly/SE Pennsylvania.
BTW, the numbers I’m showing in this table are the average net Trump approval ratings in each state from both Morning Consult and Civiqs. The more negative the net approval, the more blue leaning. States turning more blue by the demographic day include Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas. The states holding steady or drifting slightly red-ish include Pennsylvania, Ohio, and (of course) freaking Florida. One interesting angle is the flight of Californians/Tech workers to North Carolina and Texas is definitely reaping benefits. It’s kind of like an unseen blue push on top of the normal demographic changes.
The crazy thing is if you put your optimistic hat on for a moment, the line between barely winning 270 and absolute landslide is so very thin now. In fact, if somehow the Democrats can push the race only 2 or 3 points more blue than the nominal net approval/disapproval rate and you scoop up Ohio and Texas...listen to this amazing stat: The Democratic nominee could win the top 15 states in population and 19 of the top 22.