It’s another Saturday, so for those who tune in, welcome to a diary discussing the Nuts & Bolts of a Democratic campaign. If you’ve missed out, you can catch up anytime: Just visit our group or follow Nuts & Bolts Guide. Every week I tackle issues I’ve been asked about and, with the help of a lot of great minds, we put together a series aimed at helping small campaigns.
We are hours away from the kickoff of the Democratic caucuses and primaries. It all starts in Iowa, and by tomorrow night, we’re going to have some answers as to where we are, and what the expectations should be for campaigns going forward. For many campaigns, Iowa is the first and last stop. Campaigns who leave Iowa without delegates can quickly find that they are on the outside looking in. What does that look like? As candidates drop out, staff will move and volunteers will find new places to go. With hours to go, let’s talk about what happens next before New Hampshire.
What happens in eight days
As the Iowa caucus comes to a close on February 3, we begin to really gear up for New Hampshire on Tuesday, Feb. 11. Eight days doesn’t seem like a lot of time, but eight days can make a huge difference in where campaigns are and what potential resources are available to them. Campaigns leaving Iowa without delegates will be seen as wounded, mortally so. While some campaigns—thinking specifically of Bloomberg and Steyer—could proceed as long as they wish as vanity campaigns from those who can self-fund, other candidates will find that fundraising and staff support will quickly fade post-Iowa if they do not perform well.
Campaigns begin to assemble their staff beyond Iowa and New Hampshire right away. From field to advance workers in states from now through Super Tuesday. Volunteers in states all over the country get connected to campaigns and can suddenly find themselves looking for something else to do.
In these eight days, staff from campaigns in New Hampshire can move from campaign to campaign, support from one campaign can move to another. Voters in other states begin to pay more attention and decide who is and who isn’t a real candidate.
Monday night quick takes will not tell the story
The story out of Iowa will happen in a few stages. First, we’ll get the results, but then we will find out which candidates can hold together enough staff and donors to stay active. Some campaigns will absolutely close down. Some will thin themselves, focusing whatever they have left on New Hampshire. Others will just wait and see. Winning campaigns will staff up and start to push more chips into the table to try and play to win.
Because we have so many campaigns, candidates running for U.S. House and state House are sometimes waiting for volunteers to come back home and begin working on their candidates. This weekend, many volunteers from midwestern states will find themselves packed into cars driving to Iowa. They travel from Nebraska, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Chicago—maybe a few non-Chiefs fans from Kansas and Missouri who can miss the Superbowl—but at home, campaigns running at the state level are waiting for these volunteers to come home so they can get their own staff together to help in their down-ballot race.
After you see the result on Monday night, look at what happens to extended staff, in New Hampshire and beyond, and you will have a good idea of where the campaigns are going.
Next week: Iowa behind us, New Hampshire ahead. Where are we?