So, I’ve been cleansing myself of social media, which means I don’t see poll numbers as much.
I happened to stumble upon this Quinnipiac poll of MI, PA and WI and found it interesting. poll.qu.edu/...
First things first, I think doing H2H polls while a primary is ongoing won’t be that accurate, but is interesting.
From the poll, what we see is every Democratic candidate beats Trump in MI and PA. The win margin differs, but Dems come out on top.
WI on the other hand, shows Trump simply demolishing everyone. And this is where I have my quibble.
In both the MI and PA polls, the voter sample has more dems than republicans. With about 5-6% more which makes sense in terms of voter registration in that state.
Yet in the WI sample, they have more Republicans than Democrats, by around 6%. That doesn’t make sense as the state is pretty evenly divided. I won’t go as far as “unskew” the polls, but I wouldn’t freak out about it.
Follow MULAW
As the top polling firm in the state (MULAW) this is what they have as their sample of the state:
“The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 47 percent Republican, 43 percent Democratic and 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 28 percent Republican, 26 percent Democratic, and 44 percent independent.
Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette Law School Poll has been 45 percent Republican and 44 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship, excluding those who lean, has been 30 percent Republican and 28 percent Democratic, with 41 percent independent.”
law.marquette.edu/...
Quinnipiac had it as
Republican 32%
Democrat 26%
Independent 35%
Other/DK/NA 6%
The state is more split and the Quinnipiac sample appears more right leaning than it should be and has a lot less indie voters than it should have.