Amidst all the drama and clamor primaries and caucuses in the high stakes 2020 elections, the key strategic priority for winning is actually hiding in plain sight. The steady drum of pundit voices opining on the 2020 horse race hardly ever even mentions voter registration. Yet in an environment predicted to be hyper partisan with record turnout, growing the pool of likely Democratic voters through voter registration, especially starting early, is the smart, strategic priority for Democratic organizations, grassroots activists and concerned citizens alike.
As always, the battle for votes will involve three groups: 1) Swing voters who vote frequently and may be persuaded to vote Democratic; 2) Low turnout Democrat-leaning registered voters, who vote sporadically, but may be motivated through concentrated outreach efforts; and 3) Potential voters who are likely to support Democrats, but are not yet registered.
Why prioritize voter registration? Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, more than 30% of people eligible to vote nationwide are not registered, including a disproportionally higher percentage who are young, people of color, and single women who are more likely to vote Democratic. Moreover, Democratic voters also often tend to move and will benefit from efforts to update their registrations.
Oh, and let’s not forget the ubiquitous ongoing voter roll purges and other voter suppression efforts, that we must vigorously counteract. And crucially important, registration has the potential to generating support up and down the ballot.
But here’s the big kicker. In a high profile, high stakes election, voter registration becomes even more productive. First, the current highly charged political environment, makes many potential voters who otherwise might have little interest in elections much more aware of and engaged in the forthcoming elections. Second, once registered, the high-profile environment makes it more likely that the new voters will actually turnout. And, such new contacts can be followed up near to the election.
In contrast, the return on investment in persuading swing voters and is markedly reduced in the hyper partisan, high profile 2020 environment. The vast majority of regular voters will be rock solid in their positions. Truly undecided swing voters will be very scarce, and they will be harder to influence because they have heterogeneous views and motivations. Moreover, effective persuasion is never easy. Yet these swing voters will be massively bombarded by major campaigns via every possible medium. It’s in campaign DNA and the campaign industry thrives on such efforts. Lastly, early persuasion efforts some months before the election have reduced value because persuasion effects decline steeply over time.
Outreach to low-turnout, supportive Dems actually offers a decent payoff, and should be a priority even now, though it will mostly occur in the last few months before the elections. This group is actually large, although many will turn out of their own accord in the high visibility 2020 context. A challenge is that this residual pool is largely low-information and/or turned off voters, many in disadvantaged groups, who are typically hard to reach and motivate. Nevertheless, based on my extensive experience in Virginia in 2019, such voters, especially people of color are often highly motivated by an anti-Trump message.
So, how best to support registration efforts? Recognize effective voter registration requires good training and sophisticated in-person, mail and/or digital techniques for accurate targeting of potential voters and productivity. And it should be linked to strong voter education and diligent follow up. Thus, gearing up early investment in infrastructure is crucial.
Clearly, registration efforts should be concentrated in battleground states. Individual campaigns will wisely direct some resources toward registration, but many with limited resources and organizational demands in tough districts, cannot move the needle alone. Rather, the voter registration landscape offers a rich texture of organizations such as state Democratic parties, youth-focused organizations such as NextGen, issue-focused organizations like Sierra Club, national progressive organizations like Swing Left and Field Team 6, and numerous local political organizations and non-profits, many of which combine registration efforts with voter protection and broader community organization.
What can you do? Just dive in. Do some research on local and national organizations. You can donate to organizations who do this important work. And you can volunteer to register voters yourself. The time to start is now. Impending competitive Democratic primaries and caucuses have put the 2020 elections center stage and offer a great opportunity to register potential new Democratic voters.
You can bet Donald Trump is very actively promoting voter registration among his sympathizers. We need to do him one better. And we need to do it now.
Jim Shelton is a grassroots activist and member of 31st Street Swing Left.