What we get from polls and even election reporting is mostly percentage of votes. It’s not too early to consider how those numbers relate to becoming the nominee. Here are the numbers.
There are 3,979 elected, pledged and 771 unpledged, super delegates. A majority on the first ballot requires 1991 votes. A majority including the not so super delegates is 2,376.
Under the current rules the superdelegates cannot vote on the first ballot. (Which is subject to change just like the debate rules.) Pledged delegates are released on the second ballot and can in theory vote their conscience. However delegates will be under a lot of pressure to vote in certain ways. Some are, peer pressure, the wishes of the candidate they were pledged to, the desire to vote for the winner as see it, any number of reasons rational and emotional.
Voting and poll projections shows Sanders continuing to win through Super Tuesday by margins of around 25% which should roughly equate to 1000 delegates at the end. I’ve read that the Sanders campaign strategy calls for an average of 33% which is quite possible as the field thins. Caucus states screw with straight forward estimates but generally favor the front runner disproportionately. Of course there will probably be two or three people drop out after Super Tuesday which will benefit those left. My point being that if the race remained static (which it won’t) Sanders would make the convention with a very large plurality.
The media seems to promote the notion that the supers will vote as a block for their centrist favorite (Bloomberg?) but as with media predictions it has yet to be seen. Even the party elites have to understand that if they vote as a block to overrule the public vote for a nominee who enters the convention with a substantial plurality it would make a total sham of the democratic process. They may as well just vote for Trump because out of anger or despondency people will not turn out or worse vote for Trump out of spite. Of course that’s just one person’s opinion and I hope very much not to see it tested.
Bloomberg and how much money it takes to buy the office is the greatest unknown. He may have flubbed the first debate but don’t expect him to drop out.
Feel Free to question the polls or put up your own. Polls in my opinion are just general markers.
Tell me where I’m wrong.