The Bernie people are going to hate this diary. That’s OK, flame away. I haven’t picked a candidate yet, and I agree with lots of what Bernie campaigns on. If he gets nominated I’ll vote for him without blinking twice. That’s not what this diary is about. It’s not about my preference, or your preference. This diary is about the reality of campaign tactics — and that political reality is about to hit the Sanders campaign like a buzzsaw.
Here are some facts:
1. There are several other people vying to be the nominee of the Democratic party. All of them (except Mike Bloomberg) are regular Democrats. Bernie is not. In fact, he is running as an insurgent. He’s not a Democrat, and being an Independent that caucuses with Democrats isn’t enough for lots of party faithful. And they would like the nomination to go to an actual Democrat. And reminding voters that Bernie is not an actual Democrat is a powerful argument.
2. Bernie is a social democrat. That’s cool — and if we were living in Norway, Sweden or even Britain he’d have a great shot at winning. But this isn’t Norway or Sweden. Unfortunately, the majority of the voters who will show up in November were acculturated to politics during or right after the Cold War. I appreciate that young voters don’t care — but everybody else does. And dictatorial left is no better than Trump’s dictatorial right. If you think that at least one other candidate (my guess would be Bloomberg) isn’t going to just paper the airwaves with this, you don’t understand how primaries work.
3. Bernie himself has never had to undergo this gauntlet. And, no, having to defend yourself on “Meet the Press” as a Democratic Socialist while your Senate seat is ultra-safe for you is not the same thing as what is about to happen. It didn’t happen in 2016, because there was really only 1 other candidate, and her campaign — correctly — assumed they didn’t need to nuke him. Bernie would be attacked as the front-runner even if he wasn’t an outsider insurgent. Everything will be open to scrutiny and attack. His family’s business dealings, his honeymoon in Moscow, any complimentary words about Fidel Castro or Nicaragua’s Sandinistas — it’s all going to be fair game.
4. Bernie himself is sort of a political “one-trick pony.” The reason why Larry David does him so well on SNL is because that’s really all he is. He hasn’t really been put on the full defensive in a debate yet. What do I mean by full defensive? Take Bernie and put him where Bloomberg found himself in last week’s debate. Everybody is going to attack him — on the air, on the debate stage and in speeches. In that position (and he will be in that position over the next 2 weeks) Bernie’s problem is Bernie. He won’t pivot, read the tea leaves and compromise a bit, or make a joke or do what other good politicians do. He’ll dig in, get defensive, and re-launch the same attacks. I’m not sure that’s the way to dodge the buzzsaw.
The Democratic Party is not without a memory. It’s great that under-30’s love Senator Sanders. Political parties need to expand or they die. But the memory of elections past is what is making Democrats nervous about Sanders. The last two times we nominated really good, super-progressive people who were uncompromising on the important issues of the day were Walter Mondale in 1984 and George McGovern in 1972. Both lost 49 states.
That’s not “old school” or “so what.” That’s history. And that’s why — combined panic and a real philosophical disagreement on the “revolution” vs “evolution” argument — is about to result in Bernie being truly pummeled on the national stage. And we’ll find out soon enough whether his campaign can survive it or not.