When the primary schedule for 2020 was announced last year, it was immediately apparent that the primary would be decided earlier than it has in the past. By March 10th, which is 15 days from today, nearly 50% of all pledged delegates will have been determined. For any candidate hoping to amass a majority of pledged delegates and win on the first ballot, the initial states are critical.
Bernie has won the popular vote in each of the three primary contests so far. A feat never before accomplished by a Democratic or Republican candidate facing multiple opponents.
Bernie has won 45 of the 101 pledged delegates awarded so far. No one else is remotely close. Pete Buttigieg has 26 delegates, and is the only other candidate to reach viability in each state. But he won only 3 delegates in Nevada and was only viable in two largely rural counties with large white populations. Joe Biden has 15 delegates, but is fading fast in national polls and is down significantly in South Carolina as well. Warren and Klobuchar don’t appear to be viable in upcoming contests, hovering around 8-13%. Bloomberg is on the cusp of viability in many states, but no one’s voted for him yet. Neither Steyer nor Gabbard have won a delegate yet.
|
Pledged AVAILABLE |
sanders |
Buttigieg |
Biden |
warren |
Klobuchar |
IA |
41 |
12 |
14 |
6 |
8 |
1 |
NH |
24 |
9 |
9 |
|
|
6 |
NV |
36 |
24 |
3 |
9 |
|
|
Total |
101 |
45 |
26 |
15 |
8 |
7 |
NOTE: Delegate tallies above are from Green Papers. Buttigieg is expected to win 14 delegates in Iowa despite losing the state-wide popular vote because of how the vote is split in IA congressional districts.
My estimate is that Bernie is now at or ahead of the pace he needs to maintain to win an outright majority of pledged delegates. He was 7 delegates behind the requisite pace after New Hampshire, but has caught up now with 45% of delegates awarded so far.
538 now estimates there’s a 47% chance Bernie wins a majority of pledged delegates. Prediction markets place the probability that Bernie is the nominee (slightly different case) at 65%.
The next big contests are:
- South Carolina (2/29): by my estimate, Bernie needs to win 22 out of 54 delegates to remain on track to win an outright majority of pledged delegates.
- Super Tuesday (3/3): 1344 delegates will be allocated, that is 34% of all pledged delegates available. Bernie needs to win 743 of those delegates to remain on track to win an outright majority.
- March 10th: 365 delegates to be allocated. Bernie needs to win 197 by my calculation.
Super Tuesday may end up being even more important this year. The biggest delegate hauls are in Texas and California (a total of 643 delegates are awarded in those two states alone).
He needs to win over 50% of the delegates available in both CA and TX. That said, he ended up winning two-thirds of the delegates in Nevada. This was due to two factors:
Both these factors apply to CA and TX.
None of the other candidates is expected to drop out before Super Tuesday. Bernie’s campaign has long had infrastructure deployed across the Super Tuesday states, other candidates are playing catch-up and do not have voter ID or turnout operations of the same size. He has been doing events in Texas and California for months. Early voting has already begun in many states, and that requires organization on the ground, hundreds of millions in TV ads won’t cut it.
Then there is the campaign’s long-standing engagement with Latino voters. Voters who have an outsized impact in early voting states this year.
Overall, an estimated 56% of Latino eligible voters live in states that have a Democratic primary or caucus on or before Super Tuesday this year, up from 29% in 2016, according to an analysis of 2018 and 2016 American Community Survey data. — www.pewresearch.org/...
None of this is accidental, it is a well-thought out, planned and well executed strategy to win. If Bernie gets close to 60% of delegates in California and/or Texas, it becomes very difficult for anyone else to catch up to him.
Despite all the preparation and effort which seems to be paying off, the Bernie campaign faces enormous challenges. Many of the people who control the institutional levers of the Democratic party see Sanders as a threat to their power in the party. When the media isn’t ignoring Bernie, they ricochet between skepticism and outright scorn. Billionaires are funneling money into super-pacs supporting other candidates. As if that wasn’t enough, two billionaires are running in the primary itself. Bloomberg has virtually limitless funding and is carpet-bombing TV stations in super Tuesday states. Several candidates have the funding to stay in the race till super Tuesday, potentially reducing the number of delegates Bernie can win on that day.
Here’s the thing. They may have the money. But we’ve got the people.
The Bernie campaign has to remain laser focused on collecting delegates at a pace necessary to win an outright majority. It almost doesn’t matter what the other candidates are doing, as long as Bernie is collecting delegates at the required pace. If we have the pledged delegates, we win. That’s all that matters.
Some campaigns are banking on a brokered convention if no candidate has an outright majority on the first ballot. But if Bernie can win an outright majority on the first ballot, this back-room maneuvering will be futile.
Every day, every hour, every minute from here on out counts. Every phone call, text message and door knock could result in winning a pledged delegate that ends up making Bernie the nominee. If we are to win this, we need a convincing victory. If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, now is the time to begin calling, texting, or canvassing. This is the best chance we’ve had in a generation, to put as progressive a candidate at the top of the ticket.
My tabulation of the upcoming primary calendar is below and factors in various things including Bernie’s relative strength in the state in 2016 and current polling. To win on the first ballot, a candidate will need 1,990 pledged delegates at the convention. I’ve factored in a buffer, with a target of over 2,000 delegates.
Let’s win this.
NOTE: Many of the states listed below as “Closed” allow voter registration or party affiliation change on primary day, some allow unaffiliated voters to participate in primaries if they sign an affidavit. If you have any doubts, check your state’s primary rules and your secretary of state’s voter guide.
Date |
STATE |
Pledged DELEGATES |
Unpledged |
TYPE |
Expected, Based on 2016 result, 2020 polls |
Delegates Bernie MUST Win in state |
Bernie's actual 2020 delegates |
+/- pace needed to win |
2/3/2020 |
IA |
41 |
8 |
Closed Caucus |
19 |
16 |
12 |
-4 |
2/11/2020 |
NH |
24 |
9 |
Modified Primary |
12 |
12 |
9 |
-3 |
2/22/2020 |
NV |
36 |
12 |
Closed Caucus (del) |
15 |
15 |
24 |
9 |
2/29/2020 |
SC |
54 |
9 |
Open Primary |
19 |
22 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
AL |
52 |
9 |
Open Primary |
17 |
24 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
AR |
31 |
5 |
Open Primary |
11 |
15 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
AS |
6 |
5 |
Open Caucus |
2 |
3 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
CA |
415 |
79 |
Modified Primary |
176 |
233 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
CO |
67 |
13 |
Modified Primary |
32 |
41 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
MA |
91 |
23 |
Modified Primary |
39 |
52 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
ME |
24 |
8 |
Closed Primary (del) |
12 |
15 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
MN |
75 |
17 |
Closed Primary |
36 |
46 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
NC |
110 |
12 |
Modified Primary |
45 |
60 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
OK |
37 |
5 |
Modified Primary |
17 |
22 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
TN |
64 |
9 |
Open Primary |
24 |
33 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
TX |
228 |
34 |
Closed Primary |
86 |
117 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
UT |
29 |
6 |
Closed Primary |
16 |
20 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
VA |
99 |
25 |
Open Primary |
38 |
51 |
|
|
3/3/2020 |
VT |
16 |
7 |
Open Primary |
9 |
11 |
|
|
3/10/2020 |
Abroad |
13 |
4 |
Open Caucus |
6 |
8 |
|
|
3/10/2020 |
ID |
20 |
5 |
Closed Primary |
10 |
13 |
|
|
3/10/2020 |
MI |
125 |
22 |
Open Primary |
52 |
68 |
|
|
3/10/2020 |
MO |
68 |
10 |
Open Primary |
28 |
37 |
|
|
3/10/2020 |
MS |
36 |
5 |
Open Primary |
11 |
15 |
|
|
3/10/2020 |
ND |
14 |
4 |
Open Caucus (del) |
7 |
8 |
|
|
3/10/2020 |
WA |
89 |
18 |
Closed Primary |
37 |
48 |
|
|
3/14/2020 |
NoMa |
6 |
5 |
Closed Caucus |
2 |
3 |
|
|
3/17/2020 |
AZ |
67 |
11 |
Closed Primary |
25 |
33 |
|
|
3/17/2020 |
FL |
219 |
29 |
Closed Primary |
75 |
103 |
|
|
3/17/2020 |
IL |
155 |
29 |
Open Primary |
62 |
81 |
|
|
3/17/2020 |
OH |
136 |
17 |
Modified Primary |
52 |
69 |
|
|
3/24/2020 |
GA |
105 |
15 |
Open Primary |
33 |
46 |
|
|
3/29/2020 |
PR |
51 |
8 |
Open Primary |
18 |
24 |
|
|
4/4/2020 |
AK |
15 |
4 |
Closed Caucus |
4 |
6 |
|
|
4/4/2020 |
HI |
24 |
9 |
Closed Primary |
11 |
14 |
|
|
4/4/2020 |
LA |
54 |
7 |
Closed Primary |
16 |
22 |
|
|
4/4/2020 |
WY |
14 |
4 |
Closed Caucus |
6 |
7 |
|
|
4/7/2020 |
WI |
84 |
13 |
Open Primary |
34 |
44 |
|
|
4/28/2020 |
CT |
60 |
15 |
Closed Primary |
22 |
29 |
|
|
4/28/2020 |
DE |
21 |
11 |
Closed Primary |
7 |
9 |
|
|
4/28/2020 |
MD |
96 |
23 |
Closed Primary |
30 |
41 |
|
|
4/28/2020 |
NY |
274 |
46 |
Closed Primary |
94 |
126 |
|
|
4/28/2020 |
PA |
186 |
24 |
Closed Primary |
65 |
87 |
|
|
4/28/2020 |
RI |
26 |
9 |
Modified Primary |
10 |
13 |
|
|
5/2/2020 |
GU |
7 |
5 |
Closed Caucus |
2 |
3 |
|
|
5/2/2020 |
KS |
39 |
6 |
Closed Primary |
17 |
21 |
|
|
5/5/2020 |
IN |
82 |
7 |
Open Primary |
31 |
40 |
|
|
5/12/2020 |
NE |
29 |
4 |
Modified Primary |
11 |
15 |
|
|
5/12/2020 |
WV |
28 |
6 |
Modified Primary |
10 |
14 |
|
|
5/19/2020 |
KY |
54 |
6 |
Closed Primary |
19 |
25 |
|
|
5/19/2020 |
OR |
61 |
14 |
Closed Primary |
24 |
31 |
|
|
6/2/2020 |
DC |
20 |
26 |
Closed Primary |
5 |
7 |
|
|
6/2/2020 |
MT |
19 |
6 |
Open Primary |
7 |
9 |
|
|
6/2/2020 |
NJ |
126 |
21 |
Modified Primary |
40 |
54 |
|
|
6/2/2020 |
NM |
34 |
11 |
Closed Primary |
12 |
16 |
|
|
6/2/2020 |
SD |
16 |
5 |
Modified Primary |
6 |
8 |
|
|
6/6/2020 |
VI |
7 |
6 |
Closed Caucus |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
UN |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
3,979 |
766 |
|
1528 |
2007 |
|
|
— @subirgrewal