Okay, just for fun:
Nobody gets an outright majority of delegates, so a contested convention leads to a John Kerry/Michelle Obama ticket. She gives a crushingly poignant speech about how she had a heart-to-heart with Barack who convinced her it was her moment in history, and that we don’t always choose when and where these things happen and if she’s being called on to help her nation, she will answer. And Kerry will be there too as the compromise nobody’s totally happy with but mostly nobody outright hates.
They win the popular vote by an even wider margin than 2016. Despite this, the electoral map remains mostly the same except we retake Michigan and Pennsylvania, but not Wisconsin where suppression and misinformation and backlash against “socialism” prevail.
However, as in 2008 the Obama factor means we DO take the Nebraska second district which tips the electoral score to 270-268 for Kerry.
Trump declares the election invalid and eggs on his supporters to threaten the electoral college voters in an effort to get at least one D elector to abstain. Says that because it was a fraudulent election casting an electoral vote is treason and so second amendment solution, go after their families, pardons for anyone who acts in defense of their nation, etc.
At least one D elector abstains or is beaten up on their way in and the vote ends up 269-268, with no one being declared winner. Maybe even a bunch of Trump electors abstain in protest just to make sure the whole thing is as big a mess as possible.
Election goes to the house, where 26 Republican-led state delegations reelect Donald Trump.
But there’s a twist! We retake the Senate by one seat, and the Senate elects Michelle Obama Vice President and the new administration is Trump/Obama.
Six weeks later Trump has a massive stroke and Michelle Obama becomes the 46th President Of The United States.
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Okay, I don’t actually think that will happen, but I wanted to put it out there in case it does so that I look like a genius and then everyone will have to listen to me for at least four years.
But the electoral abstaining thing does genuinely scare me. It happened in 1836 on the VP side when the Virginia electors abstained, though the Senate voted for the rightful winner regardless. I worry about an electoral voter intimidation campaign if Trump loses.
Also, I really hope we’re putting some resources into NE-2 because it could be a decider. And making sure we hold all of Maine.