I’ve been seeing some comments lately which have the basic theme of “I might not vote for Warren because I’m worried it is a wasted vote when I want to defeat the moderate wing of the party for the nomination”. The logic is to make whatever Sanders does on Super Tuesday as strong as possible to weaken the moderate candidates.
If Sanders is your first choice, by all means vote for him. But I think this reasoning is a fallacy if he isn’t your first choice and Warren is, or is at least a higher choice than Sanders and you dislike the three Bs that are next in line (Buttigeig, Biden and Bloomberg).
Basically Sanders is doing well right now because the “Not Sanders” vote is fragmented and he’s picked up support beyond his base both from candidates that dropped out or are doing poorly where he was the second choice. He’s also the only candidate with visible strength in the Latino demographic etc, which wasnt an obvious support for him. But that could change if the vote coalesces some other way on Super Tuesday, when we’re dealing with primaries instead of caucuses. (The NH Primary is small, regionally favorable to Sanders and very white. I don’t value it much for predictive power. The SC primary is an interesting gauge of AA support, but Super Tuesday is where the action is when seeing how the 2020 Nom is going to go)
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My thesis is that Warren has two paths to an eventual nomination. Neither are especially likely given current polling, but both have zero chance of happening if the folks that like her vote for anybody else on Super Tuesday.
Scenario 1:
Warren gets a bump on Super Tuesday based on debate performances or other factors that aren’t reflected in current polling and finishes strong in a lot of states, with delegate count putting her in the top two contenders, and not a distant second place if she isn’t in the lead. In any event, she basically wins on the merits eventually in this scenario. Based on current polling this is less likely than Scenario 2, but it can still happen.
Scenario 2.
Sanders is the frontrunner after Super Tuesday, Warren is either second or third behind a moderate, and if in third is very close to the Moderate. The “Anybody but Sanders” faction of the party coalesces behind Warren instead of the Moderate (I can see Biden, Buttegeig or Bloomberg all having sufficient bad press and flaws to various parts of the party to make Warren a better standard bearer when all three have proven inadequate vs Sanders). Obviously both of the remaining “not Sanders” candidates need to be close enough to make it seem possible to win eventually.
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Lets now talk tactics. If your primary goal is to prevent a moderate from winning but you prefer Warren to Sanders, what is the risk of voting for Warren on Super Tuesday?
There are Three basic outcomes.
1. Warren doesn’t take enough extra delegates to affect where Sanders is ranked in any way that affects mathematical odds or media narrative. No harm to Sanders.
2. Warren takes enough extra delegates to turn a big Sanders win into a smaller win.
3. Warren takes enough extra delegates to have some moderate ahead on delegates after Super Tuesday instead of a narrow Sanders lead.
I think it is the last two scenarios that are spooking folks into changing votes. If Warren, however, doesn’t see a path to victory (eg, one of the two Scenarios above or something similar) do you really think she won’t drop out and endorse Sanders at some point, and/or release her delegates to vote for him in a way similar to what HRC did for Obama in 2008? (I can see Sanders sticking it out forever regardless of the odds, I don’t see Warren behaving that way). If Warren+Sanders in the end can get over 50%, and Sanders is the frontrunner, Warren will back him over any of the moderates in the race.
Basically the only way Warren won’t back Sanders is if at the convention she’s the one people rally behind (eg, the “Anybody but Sanders” faction can’t get over 50% without Warren on the ticket). She’s not going to take her delegates to Buttigeig, Biden or Bloomberg. So unless Sanders is really your first choice, you should be voting for her to be as strong as possible at the convention, should she still be in the race by then. Because she’ll either be the head of the ticket or will support Sanders at head of the ticket. The only way that doesn’t happen is some health problem with Sanders and her just not having enough delegates to be a reasonable choice at all (and if that happens, a vote for Sanders is also lost. So just give Elizabeth the vote if you want her first, and Sanders as second choice)
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So anyway. If you have been wondering about whether to switch a Warren preferenced vote to Sanders for fear of “wasting” it, please don’t. This is in fact the one time where a vote for Warren is sure to NOT be wasted. Do what my wife and I did today in the CA primary (early voting) and fully enjoy the choice you selected for a change.
She might not win. But she deserves a vote from everbody who thinks she’s our best candidate for president in 2020.