Iowa Dems now say results will be available by 5 PM ET. But you read it here first.
Pete Buttigieg will be the delegate winner, validating his speech last night. The former McKinsey consultant has the chops and resources to have counted noses correctly, and his temperament is such that he would make that move only if he has high confidence in his data. The victory will be short lived as he won’t win New Hampshire, or South Carolina, or Nevada, and his campaign will evaporate following Super Tuesday.
Bernie Sanders will be second in the delegate count. Although the numbers are close, this screws with his “surging” narrative and takes some of the edge off going into New Hampshire.
Elizabeth Warren comes in a respectable third and receives a lot of benefit from the narrative around her steady response.
Joe Biden is distant fourth, totally upending his campaign. He responds with some strange pol-speak and maybe even a gaffe or two. Everybody waits and sees whether the loss, together with his expected loss in New Hampshire, will compromise the depth of his expected victory in South Carolina. This depends on whether Warren successfully competes on the “safe bet to beat Trump” argument.
Other candidates, including Amy Klobuchar, see their resources and fundraising drop off and are out before or shortly after New Hampshire.
Super Tuesday ends up being all about Warren and Sanders and they slog it out all the way to the convention.