There’s a common misperception that Warren supporters, were she to drop out, would transfer wholesale to Bernie in the primary race. Some have encouraged Warren to drop out and endorse Bernie based on this belief.
However, just looking at second-choice picks of Warren supporters in Iowa, you find that just as many went to Pete as went to Bernie. In other words, Warren’s presence in the race is holding together a block of voters that would otherwise split between the moderate and more progressive candidates in this race.
Age and health aside, I am a big fan of Bernie. He has a very impressive campaign, message, and political skills that position him well to beat Trump. Still, even in New Hampshire he doesn’t seem to be exceeding his apparent ceiling of support this time around. I wish him the best as he works to do so, and perhaps with the moderates divided between Pete-Biden-Bloomberg Sanders can win enough troves of deligates with state-level wins to be leading the delegate count at the end of the race.
But i wouldn’t count on it, and if Warren were to drop out, even if Sanders gained half her support, the eventual moderate(s) would get the other half, and then with their majority of votes and delegates they will surely not nominate Sanders, even if he has the largest chunk of delegates.
Instead, Warren’s viability is the surest path for nominating a progressive in this race. If she just maintains her support while Bernie goes on a tear and gets the largest single pool of delegates, she can be the deciding factor in ensuring he actually gets the nomination. Alternately, if Bernie doesn’t steamroll and Warren rises, she can be the unity candidate that moderates are willing to nominate and a Bernie campaign can place their delegates in a progressive who shares their values.
I’m working hard for Warren and I think she can make a comeback as she hones her message and people gradually acknowledge her skills and position as the party unifier. And while I’m perfectly happy if Bernie gets the nomination, if he doesn’t it definitely won’t be because Warren stayed in this race and persisted.
Update: by the way, here’s the data i’m citing. in fact more like ¾ of warren’s first choice people did not go to sanders in the 2nd round. But most Bernie voters (2/3) did go for warren if they had to in the second round.
www.washingtonpost.com/...