I think one article kinda lays it all out:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
FiveThirtyEight did a pre- and post-debate opinion survey in conjunction with Ipsos.
They polled a panel of voters/viewers with respect to their opinion of the candidates prior to the NH debate, and then polled them with respect to their view of the debate performance.
They then cross-plotted pre-debate favorability vs debate performance review.
Sanders got highest marks, followed by Klobuchar and then Buttigieg.
Sanders (2.5%) and Buttigieg (5.8%) gained a lot of support from that panel. Klobuchar gained 3% support from the panel.
Warren stayed about the same.
Biden lost a ton of support.
Yang and Steyer remained irrelevant.
This and several other metrics, including Morning Consult showing Sanders with a nationwide lead (within margin of error), and a series of polls showing Sanders holding steady with a lead and Buttigieg gaining strongly in NH… all point to the potential for Sanders and Buttigieg to take NH with no others gaining above 15% support.
If the strongest Sanders polling is accurate, he could win with better than 30% of the vote and take the lion’s share of the delegates.
If the weakest Sanders polling is accurate, then he and Buttigieg split NH.
This, more than anything, explains the nonsense being spewed.