Yes, that’s hand holding in the title photo. We’ll do that again soon, most likely. Funny how things change sometimes though. The mean level of expertise in hand sanitation has risen dramatically, if nothing else.
My least worst guess is that people will say that Trump has careened his way through a bunch of medium worst choices in handling Covid-19, citing as evidence mere quotes, such as these
The Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus … their new hoax
I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault
Now, this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this and it is very mild
It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear
Anyone who wants a test can get one
Now they have it, they have studied it, they know very much, in fact, we’re very close to a vaccine
To unleash the full power of the federal government … I am officially declaring a national emergency
I don't take responsibility at all
It's a very contagious virus. It's incredible. But it's something we have tremendous control of
In case you’re wondering, that last link also corrects Trump’s erroneous statement.
Experts say the US does not have the virus even close to contained … The worst is yet ahead for us. It is how we respond to that challenge that is going to determine what the ultimate end point is going to be. We have a very, very critical point now.
Trump can’t help but lie about it, and he will also take more than his share of credit for any success stemming from the efforts and sacrifices of many institutions, organizations, companies and governments.
People are resting predictions that Trump will blow this latest fact driven criticism off as a fake news, witch hunt, hatchet job on nothing more than his reactions through documented Russian election meddling. That, and the defenses he pulled out in likely solicitation of corrupt Ukraine deals covered up post hoc with a story of fighting corruption. Of course, Republicans could check administration crime fighting and burden sharing alibis against documents and witness testimony, but they are taking the boss’s word on it. That just so happened to grant dear leader with immunity and privilege to the point of passing us over the threshold of an imperial presidency. And, that’s just the political side. The financial side, oy.
On the bright side, the don didn’t seem to know enough to wrest maximum control and power from the COVID-19 situation. He does seem to be learning on the job. More bleakly, there’s a good chance that the lessons he does learn will lead us to more authoritarian presidenting aimed to benefit the wealthy elite. Industry currently stands with Trump, as long as he does enough for them. Supply siders are hardening their positions against growing masses demanding more than a trickle down.
But, sorry, I want to pivot this piece to distributions. They are everywhere. Consider, for one, how many viruses there are. We are part of biological communities including us, them and everything in between.
Disclaimer: this is a back of the envelope guesstimate analysis of back of the envelope expert guessing.
The examples below are mostly based on 'back of the envelope' calculations and should therefore be viewed as they were intended: ballpark figures aiming to inspire.
So, that means
if all the 1 × 1031 viruses on earth were laid end to end, they would stretch for 100 million light years
might be off by up to 1031 or a couple dozen hundred million light years, and
there are 100 million times as many bacteria in the oceans (13 × 1028) as there are stars in the known universe
could end up being adjusted by 1028 or more. Back of the envelope it is then.
Going out on a limb, I say that there are lots of viruses, enough for plenty of them to be picked up in winds and blown around the Earth. And, there are only maybe 1000-100000 times fewer bacteria, which compared to 1031, is not such a big difference. In a distribution of genome complexity or size versus number of individuals, these micro and nano beings make up the bulk of the distribution, while we reside in the upper tail end.
Communities are not maintained solely by those in the top tail, though the level of dominance can be significant. Each member of a network will participate to some extent, with some being more influential than others. Economically, billionaire influence is limited in a resilient society. They keep taking more at everyone’s peril. Ecologically, numerous microbial species attempt to harm us. Wholesale domination of viruses and bacteria is not a viable defense option at present or for the foreseeable future.
Errors in virus replication are rare enough for them to easily continue existing, yet still significant enough for the space of potential variants to be explored quite widely. Anthropomorphizing and simplifying beyond acceptable limits, I say that viruses, as a whole, are constantly testing different nucleotide and protein configurations for advantages in attempts to thwart dynamic defenses and exploit moving targets in potential hosts.
Communities are not always happy and friendly. As long as we have some of the limited supply of what others want, attempts to procure those resources will be forthcoming.
This seems like a good place to say that fighting infections is a good thing. Immunize and prepare for future attacks requiring new vaccines. Know that a place in distributions is not guaranteed. Fights will be required at times. Extraordinary measures are necessary now and then. Threats to us from microbes can require quarantines and mass cancellations.
As we battle this latest virulent threat, assuming survival, please also keep in mind that resilient systems provide resources to each participant. Many or maybe most interactions are benign or beneficial. We are much stronger working together and helping each other than we are in competing against each other in isolation. That applies on both macro and micro scales. We gain much more than we currently know from both our human friends and our microbial cohorts. In one example from a link above.
The number of genes contained within this gut flora outnumbers that contained within our own genome 150-fold, and even in our genome, 8% of the DNA is derived from remnants of viral genomes.
Many lessons await in searching for healthy dynamic community balances. Many misconceptions and biases need to be addressed along the way. Humans will not live in sterile environments anytime soon.
Finishing this up back in politics, I join the 61% of Americans who say that there is too much economic inequality. Current distribution disparities don’t make for a stable community. For one, it doesn’t help for millions to be uninsured and without paid sick days in the midst of a pandemic. Fixing it is not virology, but it might be even more complex. Wealth distributions compatible with a stable society are rare for humans. And, no distribution will be stable unless it also deals with inequalities stemming from racism, sexism, nationalism and other biases. If we are to survive as a civilization, we have no choice but work out these problems and strive to form communities with resources distributed in ways that provide resiliency to all members, not just a few at the top.