DISTRICT 37 — Current Congressperson Karen Bass (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Karen Bass
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
127,883 |
88.0% |
|
Errol Webber
(Party Preference: REP)
|
11,248 |
7.7% |
|
Larry Thompson
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
6,241 |
4.3% |
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
89.2/10.8 88/7.7
Analysis
If the GOP loses any more ground in this district it will find itself in negative territory.
Prediction
Democratic Landslide.
DISTRICT 38 — Current Congressperson Linda Sanchez (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Linda T. Sánchez
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
82,270 |
77.7% |
|
Michael Tolar
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
23,659 |
22.3% |
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
Another all Democratic contest where this time the GOP did not run any candidate in the primary.
DISTRICT 39 — Current Congressperson Gil Cisneros (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
Primary election |
Party |
Candidate |
Votes |
% |
|
Republican |
Young Kim |
30,019 |
21.2 |
|
Democratic |
Gil Cisneros |
27,469 |
19.4 |
|
Republican |
Phil Liberatore |
20,257 |
14.3 |
|
Democratic |
Andy Thorburn |
12,990 |
9.2 |
|
Republican |
Shawn Nelson |
9,750 |
6.9 |
|
Republican |
Bob Huff |
8,699 |
6.2 |
|
Democratic |
Sam Jammal |
7,613 |
5.4 |
|
Democratic |
Mai-Khanh Tran |
7,430 |
5.3 |
|
Democratic |
Herbert H. Lee |
5,988 |
4.2 |
|
Republican |
Steven C. Vargas |
4,144 |
2.9 |
|
Democratic |
Suzi Park Leggett |
2,058 |
1.5 |
|
Republican |
John J. Cullum |
1,747 |
1.2 |
|
No party preference |
Karen Lee Schatzle |
903 |
0.6 |
|
No party preference |
Steve Cox |
856 |
0.6 |
|
Republican |
Andrew Sarega |
823 |
0.6 |
|
American Independent |
Sophia J. Alexander |
523 |
0.4 |
|
American Independent |
Ted Alemayhu |
176 |
0.1 |
Total votes |
141,445 |
100.0 |
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Gil Cisneros
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
78,902 |
46.6% |
|
Young Kim
(Party Preference: REP)
|
82,391 |
48.6% |
|
Steve Cox
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
8,064 |
4.8% |
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
45/53.3 46.6/48.6
Analysis
In this district which Gil Cisneros flipped to the Democrats in 2018, we have a general election rematch of a contest that was very close two years ago. Compared to the 2018, the Democratic primary vote has advanced slightly while the GOP primary vote has contracted more significantly resulting in the vote going from R +8.3 in the 2018 primary to R +2 in the 2020 primary. Neither major party candidate was contested this time round, so it appears that the slightly higher percentage of Democratic vote is a real thing.
DISTRICT 40 — Current Congressperson Lucille Royal-Allard (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Anthony Felix Jr.
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
8,434 |
12.4% |
|
Lucille Roybal-Allard
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
34,492 |
50.6% |
|
David John Sanchez
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
9,147 |
13.4% |
|
C Antonio Delgado
(Party Preference: REP)
|
9,482 |
13.9% |
|
Michael Donnell Graham Jr.
(Party Preference: AI)
|
1,773 |
2.6% |
|
Rodolfo Cortes Barragan
(Party Preference: GRN)
|
4,828 |
7.1% |
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
80.3/0 76.4/13.9
Analysis
No Republican candidate in 2018 and therefore no comparisons possible. However, with the 2020 primary votes still coming in, and trending Democratic, it is possible that an all Democratic contest will occur in 2020. Regardless, this deep blue district stays as such.
Democratic Landslide.
DISTRICT 41 — Current Congressperson Mark Takano (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Mark Takano
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
52,031 |
50.4% |
|
Grace Williams
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
15,737 |
15.2% |
|
Aja Smith
(Party Preference: REP)
|
35,496 |
34.4% |
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
58.5/41.5 65.6/34.4
Analysis
This district has swung fast towards the Democrats and has continued this trend in 2020 and is approaching landslide territory (i.e., 70% of the vote) although I do not think it will quite get there this cycle.
Safe Democratic.
DISTRICT 42 — Current Congressperson Ken Calvert (R) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Regina Marston
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
28,053 |
18.2% |
|
William "Liam" O'Mara
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
34,749 |
22.6% |
|
Ken Calvert
(Party Preference: REP)
|
91,024 |
59.2% |
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
34.3/60.8 40.8/59.2
Analysis
This district has also swung fast towards the Democrats, but it started out being a deeply red district. This trend has accelerated in this cycle and, should this district survive redistricting, it should provide close contests in the years to come. We are not there yet in this cycle.
Lean Republican.
DISTRICT 43 — Current Congressperson Maxine Waters (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Maxine Waters
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
87,702 |
77.6% |
|
Joe E. Collins III
(Party Preference: REP)
|
12,721 |
11.3% |
|
Omar Navarro
(Party Preference: REP)
|
12,583 |
11.1% |
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
72.3/25.4 77.6/22.4
Analysis
Another district that is overwhelming Democratic and becoming even more so.
Democratic Landslide.
DISTRICT 44 — Current Congressperson Nanette Barragan (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Nanette Diaz Barragan
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
51,040 |
63.2%
|
|
Morris F. Griffin
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
7,218 |
8.9%
|
|
Analilia Joya
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
11,547 |
14.3%
|
|
Billy Z. Earley
(Party Preference: REP)
|
10,893 |
13.5%
|
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
82.5/17.4 86.4/13.5
Analysis
This is another district that when you think it cannot get any bluer, it does. In a contested Democratic primary with only one Republican, the general election will be yet another all Democratic affair.
Democratic Landslide.
DISTRICT 45 — Current Congressperson Katie Porter (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Katie Porter
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
111,857 |
50.6%
|
|
Rhonda Furin
(Party Preference: REP)
|
2,118 |
1.0%
|
|
Christopher J. Gonzales
(Party Preference: REP)
|
5,397 |
2.4%
|
|
Peggy Huang
(Party Preference: REP)
|
24,671 |
11.2%
|
|
Greg Raths
(Party Preference: REP)
|
39,772 |
18.0%
|
|
Don Sedgwick
(Party Preference: REP)
|
28,358 |
12.8%
|
|
Lisa Sparks
(Party Preference: REP)
|
8,796 |
4.0%
|
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
46/51.7 50.6/49.4
Analysis
In this Orange County seat, Katie Porter flipped it for the Democrats in 2018 by knocking off a Republican incumbent. She has proven to be a formidable representative and the voters appear to have repaid her by pushing her over 50% in an uncontested primary where all the action was on the GOP side. This represents about a 7% swing in her favor, which, in the course of two years, is enormous. This one will not be that close.
Safe Democratic.
DISTRICT 46 — Current Congressperson Lou Correa (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Lou Correa
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
59,777 |
58.2%
|
|
Pablo Mendiolea
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
9,160 |
8.9%
|
|
James S. Waters
(Party Preference: REP)
|
28,198 |
27.4%
|
|
Will Johnson
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
2,356 |
2.3%
|
|
Ed Rushman
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
3,271 |
3.2%
|
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
62.2/32.4 67.1/27.4
Analysis
Another very blue to very very blue district. All moving in Democrat’s favor.
Prediction
Democratic Landslide.
DISTRICT 47 — Current Congressperson Alan Lowenthal (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Alan Lowenthal
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
67,390 |
45.0%
|
|
Peter Mathews
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
16,032 |
10.7%
|
|
Jalen Dupree McLeod
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
12,516 |
8.4%
|
|
John Briscoe
(Party Preference: REP)
|
25,905 |
17.3%
|
|
Sou Moua
(Party Preference: REP)
|
5,643 |
3.8%
|
|
Amy Phan West
(Party Preference: REP)
|
22,209 |
14.8%
|
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
60.6/39.4 64.1/35.9
Analysis
This district (or its close equivalent) was in Republican hands a generation ago. It looks like it would take them several generations to have a shot here again if these blue trends continue.
Prediction
Safe Democratic.
DISTRICT 48 — Current Congressperson Harley Rouda (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
Primary election |
Party |
Candidate |
Votes |
% |
|
Republican |
Dana Rohrabacher (incumbent) |
52,737 |
30.3 |
|
Democratic |
Harley Rouda |
30,099 |
17.3 |
|
Democratic |
Hans Keirstead |
29,974 |
17.2 |
|
Republican |
Scott Baugh |
27,514 |
15.8 |
|
Democratic |
Omar Siddiqui |
8,658 |
5.0 |
|
Republican |
John Gabbard |
5,664 |
3.3 |
|
Democratic |
Rachel Payne (withdrawn) |
3,598 |
2.1 |
|
Republican |
Paul Martin |
2,893 |
1.7 |
|
Republican |
Shastina Sandman |
2,762 |
1.6 |
|
Democratic |
Michael Kotick (withdrawn) |
2,606 |
1.5 |
|
Democratic |
Laura Oatman (withdrawn) |
2,412 |
1.4 |
|
Democratic |
Deanie Schaarsmith |
1,433 |
0.8 |
|
Democratic |
Tony Zarkades |
1,281 |
0.7 |
|
Libertarian |
Brandon Reiser |
964 |
0.6 |
|
Republican |
Stelian Onufrei (withdrawn) |
739 |
0.4 |
|
No party preference |
Kevin Kensinger |
690 |
0.4 |
Total votes |
174,024 |
100.0 |
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Harley Rouda
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
99,124 |
46.7%
|
|
Brian Burley
(Party Preference: REP)
|
25,801 |
12.2%
|
|
James Brian Griffin
(Party Preference: REP)
|
2,685 |
1.3%
|
|
John Thomas Schuesler
(Party Preference: REP)
|
4,867 |
2.3%
|
|
Michelle Steel
(Party Preference: REP)
|
74,184 |
34.9%
|
|
Richard Mata
(Party Preference: AI)
|
5,622 |
2.6%
|
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
46/53.1 46.7/50.7
Analysis
In 2018, Harley Rouda defeated the reprehensible Dana Rohrabacher and flipped this district for team blue. The Democratic percentage share of the primary vote barely budged from two years ago, although, in mitigation, Rouda was the only Democrat on the ballot. It remains to be seen whether Rouda’s victory two years ago had more to do with the voters tiring of Rohrabacher’s sleaze (he is a Russian stooge) than with Rouda specifically. I believe his reelection will be closer than the TJ Cox/David Valadao rematch of District 21, and probably, the GOP’s only shot at a gain in California this time round.
Prediction
Lean Democratic.
DISTRICT 49 — Current Congressperson Mike Levin (D) —running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
Primary election |
Party |
Candidate |
Votes |
% |
|
Republican |
Diane Harkey |
46,468 |
25.5 |
|
Democratic |
Mike Levin |
31,850 |
17.5 |
|
Democratic |
Sara Jacobs |
28,778 |
15.8 |
|
Democratic |
Doug Applegate |
23,850 |
13.1 |
|
Republican |
Kristin Gaspar |
15,467 |
8.5 |
|
Republican |
Rocky Chávez |
13,739 |
7.5 |
|
Democratic |
Paul G. Kerr |
8,099 |
4.4 |
|
Republican |
Brian Maryott |
5,496 |
3.0 |
|
Republican |
Mike Schmitt |
2,379 |
1.3 |
|
Republican |
Josh Schoonover |
1,362 |
0.7 |
|
Republican |
Craig A. Nordal |
1,156 |
0.6 |
|
Republican |
David Medway |
1,066 |
0.6 |
|
No party preference |
Robert Pendleton |
905 |
0.5 |
|
Green |
Danielle St. John |
690 |
0.4 |
|
Libertarian |
Joshua L. Hancock |
552 |
0.3 |
|
Peace and Freedom |
Jordan J. Mills |
233 |
0.1 |
Total votes |
182,090 |
100.0 |
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Mike Levin
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
115,588 |
55.6%
|
|
Brian Maryott
(Party Preference: REP)
|
92,242 |
44.4%
|
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
50.8/47.7 55.6/44.4
Analysis
The awful Darell Issa saw the writing on the wall and retired from this seat in 2018 rather than go down in flames. Mike Levin proved him right by flipping this seat for the Democrats with relative ease. The wind is in his sails, and the primary share of the vote where both races were uncontested is a good harbinger for things to come.
Prediction
Safe Democratic.
DISTRICT 50 — Currently Vacant -- Congressperson Duncan Hunter (R) resigned
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Marisa Calderon
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
9,847 |
5.2%
|
|
Ammar Campa-Najjar
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
68,284 |
36.3%
|
|
Carl DeMaio
(Party Preference: REP)
|
37,909 |
20.2%
|
|
Darrell Issa
(Party Preference: REP)
|
44,137 |
23.5%
|
|
Brian W. Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
|
20,192 |
10.7%
|
|
Nathan "Nate" Wilkins
(Party Preference: REP)
|
3,883 |
2.1%
|
|
Jose Cortes
(Party Preference: P&F)
|
1,419 |
0.8%
|
|
Helen L. Horvath
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
1,089 |
0.6%
|
|
Lucinda KWH Jahn
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
351 |
0.2%
|
|
Henry Alan Ota
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
781 |
0.4%
|
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
36.4/62.4 41.5/56.5
Analysis
Having abandoned a sinking ship in the previous district, the awful Darell Issa is back and has advanced to the general election in this formerly safe red district but distinctly purple right now. Two years ago Ammar Campa-Najjar came very close to winning this seat in what would have been an upset of epic proportions. The question is how much of that narrow race was because of Duncan Hunter’s weakness. Campa-Najjar has the fortune of running against another profoundly flawed and unpopular candidate (although Issa is very wealthy) so it is possible that a shock is in the making here, especially given that the Democratic share of the primary vote increased significantly and contributed to an 11% swing to the Dems. Moreover, Issa made himself no friends by running homophobic ads against his Republican primary opponent. I think this will be the most likely flip in California in 2020.
Prediction
Lean Democratic.
DISTRICT 51 — Current Congressperson Juan Vargas (D) — running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Juan C. Vargas
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
68,061 |
70.6%
|
|
Juan M Hidalgo, Jr
(Party Preference: REP)
|
28,354 |
29.4%
|
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
64/31 70.6/29.4
Analysis
Another blue district getting bluer. Very much a thing in California this cycle.
Prediction
Democratic Landslide.
DISTRICT 52 — Current Congressperson Scott Peters (D) — running for reelection
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
Nancy L. Casady
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
33,169 |
15.3%
|
|
Scott Peters
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
107,425 |
49.4%
|
|
Jim DeBello
(Party Preference: REP)
|
71,315 |
32.8%
|
|
Ryan Cunningham
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
5,346 |
2.5%
|
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
59/41 64.7/32.8
Analysis
This affluent district began trending Democratic 15 years ago and that trend has steadily continued and shows no signs of stopping.
Prediction
Safe Democratic.
DISTRICT 53 — Current Congressperson Susan Davis (D) — retiring
2018 General Election Result
2018 Primary Election Result
2020 Primary Election Result (Provisional)
Candidate |
Votes |
Percent |
|
John Brooks
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
2,511 |
1.4%
|
|
Jose Caballero
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
2,800 |
1.5%
|
|
Joseph R. Fountain
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
3,271 |
1.8%
|
|
Janessa Goldbeck
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
15,816 |
8.6%
|
|
Georgette Gómez
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
37,584 |
20.4%
|
|
Sara Jacobs
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
53,782 |
29.2%
|
|
Eric Roger Kutner
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
618 |
0.3%
|
|
Annette Meza
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
3,641 |
2.0%
|
|
Suzette Santori
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
1,362 |
0.7%
|
|
Joaquín Vazquez
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
2,500 |
1.4%
|
|
Tom Wong
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
6,462 |
3.5%
|
|
Michael Patrick Oristian
(Party Preference: REP)
|
13,993 |
7.6%
|
|
Famela Ramos
(Party Preference: REP)
|
13,919 |
7.5%
|
|
Chris Stoddard
(Party Preference: REP)
|
24,653 |
13.4%
|
|
Fernando Garcia
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
1,557 |
0.8%
|
Percentage Vote (D/R) 2018 Primary Percentage Vote (D/R) 2020 Primary
64.1/33.6 70.8/28.5
Analysis
The retiring Democratic Congressperson is going to be replaced by another Democrat because the top two vote getters are both Democrats. This district continues the trend towards team blue.
Prediction
Democratic Landslide.