I’m a Warren voter! Go out and vote for Elizabeth Warren in your upcoming primary! Donate!
But I’m also a realist. And it’s a travesty, but she has no realistic path to winning a delegate majority. But good news — odds are, no one else will, either! Which means this is a long way from over.
Consolation Prize VP Appointments Generally Suck
Every competitive cycle brings with it the “bargaining” phase of a winnowing field. Candidate A isn’t pulling the votes, and should probably end their run… but if appointed VP would be part of a true “dream ticket!” This mollifies supporters, and feels good in the moment. But in reality, most such combos are poor fits electorally, unworkable politically, and overestimate the strength of the candidate field itself (compared with other party leaders and heavyweights who simply aren’t running for President). They’re fun thought exercises, but that’s all.
Moreover, the presumptive nominee adding a fallen comrade as VP just to try to win over their supporters is just usually unnecessary. Most will support the eventual nominee anyway, assuming the dropout endorses or signals his/her support. There are many other cabinet posts besides VP that can be negotiated behind the scenes. The odds that there’s no better choice out there — someone who puts a swing state in play, attracts a demographic weak for the nominee, shores up a shortcoming (age, gender, experience, etc.) — are low. Most departing candidates simply haven’t accumulated enough support over time to merit such catering to; they slowly fade, recognize their place, and recede. And finally, whoever the winner is, they’re winning! Thus they are by definition generally in no need of favors from also-rans.
(Obama choosing Biden in 2008 exemplifies this phenomenon: Biden shored up Obama’s experience deficit, and provided reassurance to some worried about his newness that he valued tenure and foreign policy chops. Winning Delaware, or attracting Biden’s supporters, were non-issues.)
But This Year is Different
Proportional delegate allocation, combined with the state of the field as we head into Super Tuesday, makes 2020 a very different situation.
There is a now a growing likelihood that no candidate will be on track for a delegate majority by the end of March (and this is the appropriate time to address the issue; there is no need to wait until mid-July in Milwaukee to know if a majority has arrived). Instead, there is every indication we will see a controversial front-runner (Sanders) leading in delegates but stubbornly unable to pass 50%, followed by a safe but moderate runner-up (Biden) not gaining on the leader but neither with any reason to concede, followed by a persistent third-place finisher (Warren) who continues to raise funds and exceed the 15% threshold to accumulate delegates (and then a declining list of a few others). The withdrawal of Buttigieg and Steyer over the weekend accelerates this trend; Klobuchar winning MN and then withdrawing this week (as seems likely) does so further.
Why Warren Can and Should (and Will) Stay In
First, persistence is on-brand for her as it is for no other candidate in recent history. Anyone hoping for her to acquiesce and withdraw need only review her life story, and recent work in the White House and Senate, to see that this has never been her MO. She’s a fighter, and continuing to fight is the most logical thing for her to do.
Second, her history in the contest suggests latent and consistent support. She led in national polls for several months last fall. She’s running well in California (#2 in several polls) and several other delegate-rich states. She continues to raise funds at a strong pace (far-exceeding Biden’s in February), and has built out an organization beyond Super Tuesday (lots of ground game happening in, for example, my home state of Ohio). Her supporters are motivated, and her candidacy’s recent strength, though diminished, suggests her votes won’t simply dry up into the single digits — especially with winnowing accelerating and the only other woman in the race likely to depart soon (yes, I’m exclusing Tulsi here, sorry).
Third, this contest is unlike any other we’ve seen. Bloomberg’s late entry and massive spending heading into Super Tuesday makes trend lines difficult to predict. The age and health of the leading candidates, the divisive nature of the leader’s movement-based candidacy — from outside the party — and the potential for more damning shoes to drop as vetting continues all make it a smart move to continue forward and accumulate delegates, even if she’s not winning states outright. Her newfound passion for all the reasons Michael Bloomberg would be a terrible nominee have given her candidacy a new raison d’etre over and above her earlier motivating issues, and it seems likely to persist as long as his run does.
Why Biden/Warren Makes Sense for the Candidates Themselves
Mathematically, the only logical reason to create a coalition among two non-leading candidates as the convention approaches is if their combined delegate total would exceed both the leading candidate’s likely total, as well as the 50% threshold. This is a very hard scenario to create in any type of winner-take-all environment — but it appears quite possible this year.
Here’s why I believe a second-place Biden campaign will reach out to a third-place Warren campaign, float the option of joining forces on a combined ticket leading up to the convention:
- Simple math: if neither Biden nor Warren looks likely to win on his/her own, survival instincts demand they pursue other options. DNC rules specify a second ballot; discussing how that vote can/should go for the betterment of the party isn’t backroom dealing or theft or chaos; it’s the process that has been set up.
- The anti-Bernie establishment benefits from her staying: all signs point to Warren pulling votes from Sanders, not Biden, mainly from educated, white, progressives, often suburbans, often women. Thus there will likely be no organized call from moderate bigwigs for her to demure. The suggestion that she could withdraw but endorse Biden over Bernie, thus propelling him to the nomination the DNC likely prefers, would be nonsensical on its face, given her past statements and stated policy goals.
- Adding #3 is the only way to get Biden the nomination: the pressure to simply award the nomination to Bernie at the convention, the assumed vote and delegate leader, will be sizable. Supporter threats, op-eds, and paid media will all drive home the point. The idea of passing over Bernie to nominate Biden needs to be accompanied by an extremely clear, easily understandable deal. A Biden/Harris or Biden/Abrams or Biden/Buttigieg ticket could all garner attention, and might perform right — but would not help unify the convention, as these picks will carry no delegates. Biden/Warren, if their combined delegates overcame Bernie’s, would do so. “Neither had the votes on their own, so they teamed up” is the kind of extremely simple, extremely logical, common sense bumper-sticker-length reasoning that will be needed to bring the rank-and-file along with any decision that passes over the leader in Milwaukee.
- Her VP candidacy would be historic in its own right: as the nation’s first female Vice President, she would break a significant glass ceiling, giving the Biden ticket something ground-breaking to run on (but without the whiff of desperation that surrounded Sarah Palin, a non-candidate with no following or relationship with the front-runner).
- They would mesh camps effectively: his support from the African-American community, party stalwarts, and big donors will benefit mightily from her camp of well-educated, white, suburbanites, notably women. (Compromises on raising funds and a few other differences will need to be worked out.) Many progressives will come home (not all; see below). The image of a moderate/progressive unity ticket will be irresistible for those seeking compromise and reconciliation, especially in the media, after what will have been portrayed as a divisive Dems-in-Disarray primary season. They can lean into this narrative throughout the fall.
- They would actually govern well together: as veterans of the Obama administration, each would bring valuable experience and a unique skill set to the administration. Warren could be tasked with moving the analytical, deep-dive policy lifts she excels at, notably in monetary policy, domestic areas, health care, and women’s issues. Biden’s leadership would likely focus on foreign policy and the military. The most progressive ideas — M4A, probably, and some others — may be left behind, at least initially. But anything Warren could convince Biden to get behind — and she is persistent! — would then take on the imprimatur of his oft-reinforced moderate stature, and immediately gain in support in those circles. Both can work the Senate. Both understand systems. Over time, “Grandpa Joe’s” calm and reassuring gravitas can begin to be applied to what are now less mainstream progressive ideals, slowly nudging the Overton Window and benefiting those ideas all over the long haul.
- She could still run in 2024 or 2028: A “successful Biden administration” is us getting roughly 3,643 steps ahead of ourselves. But of course the VP would then be well-positioned for her own run to succeed him when the time came. The US has never had a female VP, so there’s no way to know if the weight and experience of that office would overcome the sexism that has slowed other candidates. But there’s one way to find out.
Why Biden/Warren Makes Sense for us ALL (except Bernie)
- “Beat Trump At All Costs” Biden supporters will be elated: as the spring wears on and Bernie’s lead continues, much of the party, and many Biden voters, will only get more panicked. They will grow to see that handing #2 Biden the nomination over #1 Bernie will be untenable on its own. They will be thrilled with any approach that makes this maneuver viable—which combining delegates with the #3 finisher does in a way nothing else possibly can.
- Warren supporters (like me!) will be satisfied: President Elizabeth Warren is what I really want, and I’m not alone. But a VP nod would be a significant nod at the relevancy of her candidacy, and keep Bernie from what I think would be a futile and unsuccessful general election bid. As spring wears on and it becomes clearer and clearer she has no path, this approach will gain in enthusiasm, and, importantly, necessitate that she continue raising funds, continue contesting states, and continue amassing delegates. Which is what I’d want her to do, anyway.
- Non-Bernie progressives (they exist!) will be satisfied: Warren is on record saying that if her policy ideas get enacted, but she’s not the President who enacts them, that’s fine by her! Maybe this is just good retail politics. But many voters will agree. Folks who want to see progressive ideas in the White House but don’t believe Bernie Sanders can get them there given Trump’s attack machine should jump in large numbers at the idea of a Warren VP nod.
- They’d Beat Trump: Because all our candidates do, end of story.
Why Biden/Warren Would Overcome the Bernie Juggernaut
Of course the Biden/Warren ticket would alienate some Bernie supporters. That’s their brand, after all. But remember — this wouldn’t be something sprung on the nation in Milwaukee for the first time. Instead, it would slowly be sent up via trial balloon mid-spring, first floated among party bigwigs and supporters, then pushed out to media influencers and those who move in progressive circles, and then finally out to the masses trickle by trickle, unofficially then more officially, then formally. “Trump will destroy the democratic socialist Bernie, this combined moderate/progressive unity ticket of actual Democrats is our best option” can be supported by any sort of data that is needed, will garner dozens of high profile endorsements, will launch 1,000 supportive articles, and will generate a million supportive tweets. Bernie dead-ender purists who refuse to see the forest for the policy trees can then be written off as cult-of-personality dead-enders, more interested in watching a movement flail about than do the serious work of cobbling together factions. The simple act of combining moderate Biden forces with progressive Warren forces — while Bernie’s team stomps and protests in the corner — can be turned on its head to reinforce the central critique of his candidacy: that he is too inflexible and obstinate to govern. “Bernie has a vision, but Biden and Warren have the presence and the plans to actually change this nation” would be a draft mission statement for this approach.
As the convention neared and some final states voted, the nation could see — would Bernie’s numbers inflate and surpass 50%? — an indicator of whether or not this notion was being accepted and rallied around. If Biden + Warren continued to surpass his totals, hopefully clearing 50% themselves, the answer would be yes. Bernie has no such plausible go-to VP option among delegate-holding former nominees. Sanders/Biden would be demographically and politically impossible. Bloomberg may hold the 4th most delegates, but a Sanders/Bloomberg ticket doesn’t pass the laugh test. The small numbers held by Klobuchar or Buttigieg will be too small to mean anything; a Sanders/Klobuchar “unity” ticket might attract a handful of backers, but won’t satisfy the “our combined delegates pass 50% while my own do not” test (same for Sanders/Abrams, Sanders/Harris, Sanders/Booker, etc.). And let’s be honest: the very nature of Bernie’s my-way-or-the-highway candidacy cuts completely counter to the notion of a moderate VP selection in a way that Biden’s simply does not.
Finally, the voices of party elders — the Obamas, the Clintons, Pelosi, Shumer, etc. — would have a delicate, but doable task: play up this notion of coming together, of embracing two leaders of different slides of the party as they join their ideas together and turn all attention to defeating Trump in November. Of course the GOP would seek to exacerbate any rift with Bernie’s supporters in any way they could. No doubt some would go on Twitter and TV and proclaim that passing Bernie over will mean they stay home, or even cast a vote for Trump. But they’ll do that regardless. And anyone who would listen was never a Democratic voter to begin with. Simply put, the idea that a Bernie candidacy on its own would be more likely to mobilize the numbers a Biden/Warren ticket might is highly suspect and thus far unproven. If his movement is large enough to bring voters out who have been otherwise overlooked by the party, he will surpass 50% of the vote even in a slightly divided field, and this discussion will be moot. (That’s what Trump did!) If he does not, then the opposite will have been proven true, and on we should unashamedly go, through the sequence of convention votes as currently defined.
SO: Vote for Elizabeth Warren, but Pinky Swear This for Me
The notion of a messy, pie-filled “contested convention” disaster are fantasies — always. Visions of floor fights and people throwing chairs are silly. “No candidate on track to pass 50%” and “no idea who our nominee will be until we leave Milwaukee” are decidedly NOT the same thing. Let’s be serious.
It’s likely no candidate will pass 50% on the first vote. But that doesn’t mean we won’t know who our nominee and his/her VP will be long before the convention! Just like always! It’s possible the super-delegates will come around to the idea that the delegate plurality leader should get the nod, but at the moment, the vast majority aren’t there. There’s a reason for that. And the solution to that conundrum will become clearer and clearer as we move through this month.
So vote for Liz! There’s no reason to abandon her for Biden; her and others’ remaining in the contest makes is highly unlikely he can exceed 50% at the convention either, and if you aren’t a moderate there’s little reason to vote for a moderate during a primary. Vote your heart! But pinky swear this for me: when presented with the idea of her joining Joe Biden’s ticket, serving our nation as its first female Vice President, and thus allowing Democrats to put forward a candidate stronger than Bernie Sanders, you won’t dismiss it out of hand.
It may be our best shot at defeating Trump, it would super-charge a load of carefully planned and hugely significant progressive policies, and would be a great way to showcase the amazing Senator Warren for the nation heading into the fall.