https://covidactnow.org
You can see in this model where each state will be depending on actions taken (no action to Wuhan-style lockdown) and the predicted date that cases overwhelm hospital capacity. There are limitations to the model which they go into, but the most concerning one is that they do not account for ICU vs regular beds—i.e. the number of ICU beds needed might be vastly underestimated.
Social distancing is not effective enough. Shelter-in-place is much better.
For example, here’s PA as predicted by the site:
So far it’s accurate. “Red states” are going to regret not ordering restrictions earlier.
https://covidactnow.org