On Sunday night a Fox News “personality” named Steve Hilton went off on an unbalanced, simplistic and ill-informed rant regarding the coronavirus’ impact on the economy. Hilton suggests stopping virtually all social distancing after the 15-day “trial period” previously recommended, then re-opening American business so as to avoid crippling the economy, despite the public health catastrophe that would rapidly follow. Following Hilton’s broadcast, Trump, shortly afterwards, tweeted his agreement, indicating that our national policy on pandemic response is now being crafted, at least in part, by the statements of uninformed commentators on the Fox News network.
Hilton, who is not an economist and has no background whatsoever in public health policy (least of all in the United States) is described in Wikipedia as a “political strategist and commentator.” He was a strategy director for former British Prime Minister David Cameron from 2010-2016. In his commentary expressed Sunday night he touted his expertise in business by referencing his own somewhat dubious prior business experience, including the fact that he had opened a restaurant (his other venture, a political crowdfunding start-up called CrowdPac, is now effectively defunct). He has a program on Fox News called “The Next Revolution” which, according to its website “focuses on the populist movement.” He has been notable for his pro-Trump outbursts, once declaring that CNN and MSNBC were the “real agents of Putin.”
His position, to the extent it was intelligible, appears to be that the shutting down of non-essential businesses in efforts to mitigate the rate and spread of infection is a plot by “big government” to destroy the economy and thereby achieve power for...someone. Hilton’s segment is below.
At the 4:17 mark, after effusively praising Trump’s “understanding” of business, he decries the “millions of businesses murdered by the government” and warns of potential economic collapse due to the fact that businesses are all shuttering their operations (It is not clear which “government he is referring to, since, given the near-abdication of federal response by the Trump administration to the pandemic, the closure of businesses has been completely handled by state governments).
Hilton also claims that small business loans currently being touted by “the government” are ineffective, referencing a “friend” who had trouble with the government website (“Who’s got time to fill out forms, send them in to some giant bureaucracy?”) (“It is a total mess!”) Hilton then suggests that the government stand behind insurers in covering losses relating to the pandemic, but grimly warns we’re moving towards a complete government takeover of the economy (and suggests that is not something anyone wants).
Up to this point Hilton is spewing a fairly predictable argument to a Fox News audience. However about seven minutes in, he takes a cheap shot at Dr. Anthony Fauci, playing a clip of Fauci saying that he considers it a “positive” when people say to Fauci that he is over-reacting to the crisis.
“Well, that’s easy for him to say,” Hilton said. “He’ll still have a job at the end of this, whatever happens.”
Hilton then goes off the rails and claims that the shutting down of American business will end up killing 1,000,000 Americans. Not from the coronavirus, mind you, but the from the social impact of businesses shutting down and the ensuing unemployment. He apparently extrapolates this figure from an article suggesting 130,000 Brits in the UK died unnecessarily as a result of Britain’s self-imposed austerity programs (measures which he himself had promoted).
“Our ruling class and their TV mouthpieces whipping up fear over this virus, they can afford an indefinite shutdown. Working Americans can’t, they’ll be crushed by it. You know that famous phrase, ‘The cure is worse than the disease?’ That is exactly the territory we are hurting towards.”
He then urges Trump to re-evaluate the economic impact of social distancing, while still banning “large gatherings.” After that fifteen day period (which ends next Monday) Hilton appears to encourage Trump to reverse the policy of social distancing and permit American businesses to re-open, whatever the health consequences. He concludes with some platitudes about “protecting” the elderly and most vulnerable.
It appears, therefore, that Trump’s decisions on how to respond to the pandemic, and probably his actions to approve or disapprove certain measures, are being guided by such non-experts as Steve Hilton (Several sources have noted that Hilton’s “argument” appears to be derived from a discredited article in Medium by a Republican strategist named Aaron Ginn which minimizes the COVID-19 coronavirus threat). To underscore this, news outlets in the U.S. such as USAToday and the New York Times are now interpreting Trump’s Tweet as an indication that he now may lift federal coronavirus guidelines.
The reaction on Twitter was immediate.
Assuming Trump follows Hilton’s recommendations and advises state governors to stop social distancing policies, and assuming governors choose to follow that advice, the health effects are likely to be catastrophic, and the overwhelming of our health care system fairly unimaginable.