This little ray of sunshine was in my inbox a while ago so I thought I’d share. Rachel Bitecofer, whose election model most closely predicted the 2018 midterm outcome, says her latest, pre-COVID-19 model has presumptive Dem Nominee Joe Biden with 289 electoral votes.
Link to full story and particularly cheery electoral vote map.
Bitecofer’s model not only called almost the exact number of Dem pickups in 2018, but it named names too, predicting who would win.
This run of the model has Arizona moving to Lean Dem to give Biden 289 electoral votes. This does not include winable toss-up states and districts such as Iowa, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Maine CD 2, and Nebraska CD 2, totaling 68 additional EVs.
The model did not attempt to take the current world-wide crisis or economic slowdown into account. This was mainly a post Dem Primary accounting assuming Joe Biden as the nominee.
I encourage you to follow the link to her post for a full read. It is chockfull of interesting points.