Back on March 17 (St Patrick’s Day) Governor Inslee ordered a statewide restaurant, bar shutdown, closed schools, and limited the size of public gatherings. Those social distancing steps are starting to bear fruit, as hospitals are now seeing the rate of new COVID-19 admissions are slowing.
By Robert Klemko
KIRKLAND, Wash. —The suburban hospital that handled the first onslaught of coronavirus patients weeks ago — a crush of seriously ill and dying nursing home residents that signaled the beginning of the national health crisis — is now offering cautious optimism to people across the United States who are searching for an end to the springtime nightmare: They believe they might have flattened the curve here.
State authorities said there have been 2,580 positive cases and 132 deaths, and as testing in Washington has ramped up, the percentage of positive cases has remained low — holding at about 7 percent.
“We know this is still a dire challenge, we know we have not turned the corner and we are not even close to the end of this battle, but we do think there is some evidence that our community mitigation strategy — to close schools, restaurants and theaters, to prohibit gatherings — we think these things have slowed the rate of increase in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties,” Inslee said during a news conference Thursday, pointing to a graph showing Washington’s rate of new cases beginning to flatten while most other states trend upward.
“It is a glimmer of hope,” Inslee said. “This is suggestive that some of the things we’re doing together is having some very modest improvement. The things we did two weeks ago are now appearing in our hospitals.”
This graph shows the progress we are making here in Washington to flatten the curve.
A new analysis from the University of Washington projects that even with strict social distancing from coast to coast, more than 81,000 people in the U.S. — and more than 1,400 in Washington state — could die from COVID-19 by the first of July.
Hospitals and intensive care units across the country are likely to be overwhelmed beginning in the second week of April.
Modeling from the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasts that hospitalizations will generally peak in mid-April, with 64,000 more patients than licensed beds nationwide. The shortfall in ICU beds is estimated at more than 17,000. Demand will be much higher if all states do not adopt and maintain social distancing, says the report, which also examines the anticipated strain on medical systems for every state.
In Washington, there’s no predicted shortage in overall hospital beds, though some individual facilities — including the UW Medical system — will need extra capacity and have already geared up to provide it. The statewide shortage in ICU beds is forecast to reach almost 100 by April 19, the model’s approximate date for when hospitalizations are expected to peak in Washington.
The findings suggest measures to slow the epidemic are making a difference locally. But restrictions will need to continue into late May or early June in Washington and the rest of the country to bring the disease under control, said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray.
“The trajectory of the pandemic will change — dramatically for the worse — if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”
This is very welcome news here in a State that was hit early and hard by the COVID-19 pandemic.
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I just got done with a zoom chat with my family and learned that two more of my brother’s in-laws have tested positive (while showing only minor symptoms), after his Mother-in-law had tested positive before dying of pneumonia.
Washington may become a template for other states to follow in combating the pandemic.
UPDATE:
This afternoon Trump lashed out at Governor Inslee and and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer for showing insufficient gratitude to Trump, for doing his job as president.
BY BRETT SAMUELS
Trump derided Inslee as a "failed presidential candidate" who is "constantly chirping." He told reporters Whitmer "has no idea what's going on" and asserted his administration has "taken such great care of Michigan."
Asked what specifically governors could be doing to assuage his concerns, Trump said he expected gratitude for what's been done so far.
“I want them to be appreciative. I don’t want them to say things that aren’t true," he said. "I want them to be appreciative. We’ve done a great job. And I’m not talking about me, I’m talking about [Vice President] Mike Pence, the task force, I’m talking about FEMA, the Army Corps of Engineers."
"You know what I say? If they don’t treat you right, I don’t call," Trump added, noting that Pence "is a different type of person" and has been reaching out to governors regularly.