The biggest day of the Democratic primary campaign schedule is upon us: Super Tuesday. Primaries are being held in the nation’s two most populous states, California and Texas, in addition to some other large prizes for the candidates, such as North Carolina and Virginia.
This is one of those rare political events of which it’s safe to say that no one has any idea what will happen: Any range of outcomes is possible, from Bernie Sanders crushing it in California and Texas thanks to Latino voters and building a difficult-to-stop delegate lead; to Joe Biden dominating in Southern states and keeping the Super Tuesday delegate count close, putting him in the driver’s seat for upcoming states; to an indeterminate muddle in which Michael Bloomberg hits the viability threshold in a number of states, moving us that much closer to a contested convention. Complicating matters, it may be a number of days before we get a clear picture out of California and Utah, which are heavily vote-by-mail states and take a while to count.
The Daily Kos Elections liveblog will begin at 7 PM ET. Please join us then, but in the meantime, let’s take an in-depth look at what might happen in each of these 15 states. We’ll go through them in the order of their closing times (all listed in Eastern time).
7 PM ET
Vermont
Delegates: 3 statewide at-large, 2 statewide PLEO, 11 VT-AL (16 total pledged delegates)
Polls: Sanders 51, Buttigieg 13 (most recent poll)
The night begins with the slammiest of all slam dunks: Vermont, the home state of Bernie Sanders. It’s a state demographically suited to him (one of the whitest states in the nation, with a very liberal Democratic electorate and one of the lowest levels of religiosity of any state), and, moreover, it’s his home turf.
Only one pollster, Braun Research, has even bothered polling here, and it gives Sanders a 38-point edge over his nearest competition (Pete Buttigieg, who of course recently dropped out, though his name will still be on the ballot). Based on that one poll, at least, Sanders would be the only one to hit the 15% viability threshold and would rack up all 16 of the state’s delegates.
Virginia
Delegates: 21 statewide at-large; 13 statewide PLEO; 4 in VA-09; 5 each in VA-02 and VA-06; 6 each in VA-01, VA-04, VA-05, VA-07, and VA-10; 7 each in VA-03, VA-08, and VA-11 (99 total pledged delegates)
Polls: Sanders 25, Biden 21, Bloomberg 17, Warren 10 (weighted average)
Virginia is one of the biggest question marks of the night: Polling shows a three-way rumble at the top, and it’s not really demographically primed for any of the main candidates. It’s a Southern state, but it’s not as heavily African American as the Deep South states, and, in addition, it isn't as racially polarized between the parties as those other states. In other words, there are a lot of well-educated white suburbanites in the Democratic electorate as well, especially in the Washington, D.C., metro area in northern Virginia.
So what you could see is (as the polls are showing) three or more candidates hitting the 15% threshold statewide, and different pockets of strength in different congressional districts, such as the 5th and 9th—where the state’s two major universities are located, otherwise red districts without a lot of other Democrats—for Sanders; the 3rd and 4th—the state’s most heavily African American districts—for Biden; and the 10th and 11th—the most affluent parts of the suburbs—for Bloomberg. (Though it’s possible that the polling averages are relying too heavily on polls that are several weeks old, and that Bloomberg has lost significant altitude since then.) You might also look for Elizabeth Warren to overperform in that part of the state, one of the most highly educated parts of the entire country, especially the 8th, which is near Washington, and the 10th and 11th.
7:30 PM ET
North Carolina
Delegates: 24 statewide at-large; 14 statewide PLEO; 3 each in NC-05 and NC-13; 4 each in NC-03 and NC-10; 5 each in NC-07, NC-08, NC-09, and NC-11; 6 in NC-01; 7 in NC-06; 8 each in NC-02 and NC-12; 9 in NC-04 (110 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Biden 25, Sanders 23, Bloomberg 16, Warren 11 (weighted average)
The Tar Heel State is the third biggest prize of the night, with 110 pledged delegates up for grabs, as well as the biggest state where Biden is poised to win. The advantage for Biden, based on the polls, is currently pretty narrow, though it’s likely that it’s somewhat higher than that, between the momentum he’s getting out of his South Carolina win and the way that South Carolina polls understated the size of his support. Sanders and Bloomberg look like they’re in position to hit the viability threshold statewide, though.
Specific districts where Biden might fare the best are the state’s most heavily African American districts, the 1st (in the state’s rural east) and the 12th (in Charlotte). Sanders may be able to win the 4th District (in Raleigh and Chapel Hill), but also some of the rural and whiter districts in the state’s west (for instance, the 5th and 11th, which contain the college towns of Boone and Asheville, respectively). Even if Biden opens up a sizable lead statewide, Sanders can still pick up a lot of congressional district-level delegates as well, limiting Biden’s overall net haul.
8 PM ET
Alabama
Delegates: 11 statewide at-large; 7 statewide PLEO; 3 in AL-04; 4 each in AL-03 and AL-06; 5 each in AL-01, AL-02, and AL-05; 8 in AL-07 (52 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Biden 36, Sanders 15 (most recent poll)
Alabama will probably be Biden’s best state of the night: It’s similar to South Carolina, in that black voters make up the majority of the state’s Democratic electorate. It’s possible, though not likely, that Biden will end up the only candidate over the 15% viability threshold statewide, which would be a huge score for him. Biden also could run the table in the black-majority 7th District (as he nearly did in South Carolina’s 6th District), which has the most delegates of any congressional district in the state. Sanders, however, will most likely be at least viable in most of the other more rural districts, so he won’t be shut out.
That’s mostly guesswork based on Alabama’s demographic similarity to South Carolina; the state has been sparsely polled, and the most recent offering is from July of 2019! It not only doesn’t include Bloomberg, but has Kamala Harris in 3rd place at 13. I’m not going out on much of a limb here, though, in predicting that Biden will dominate in Alabama.
Maine
Delegates: 5 statewide at-large; 3 statewide PLEO; 9 in ME-01; 7 in ME-02 (24 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Sanders 27, Warren 15, Bloomberg 15, Biden 13 (weighted average)
Maine is demographically very similar to nearby Vermont, in that it’s one of the whitest and least-religious states. It also has a combination of well-educated and very liberal residents in its larger towns in its south, and more moderate but also populist-friendly rural residents in its north, so that’s a solid base for Sanders to build on. (He also won big here against Hillary Clinton in 2016, though he had another advantage because Maine used a caucus that year.)
The undercard in Maine may be most interesting, though, with Warren, Bloomberg, and Biden all jostling to get over the 15% mark, according to local polls. While it’s very likely that Sanders will win here, due to the way that the delegate math works, a double-digit win could still turn into mostly a wash for Sanders if he has to share the state’s small number of delegates with three other opponents.
Massachusetts
Delegates: 20 statewide at-large; 12 statewide PLEO; 6 each in MA-01, MA-02, MA-03, MA-04, MA-06, and MA-09; 7 in MA-08; 8 each in MA-05 and MA-07 (91 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Sanders 26, Warren 21, Bloomberg 12, Biden 11 (weighted average)
Massachusetts is one of the interesting subplots of Super Tuesday, with Sanders and Warren neck and neck in Warren’s home state, and Sanders making a full-court press here to win and, presumably, knock Warren out of the race. They’re close enough, though, that a Sanders win here would still probably give him a few more delegates than Warren gets. In fact, the more interesting subplot to the subplot may be whether Biden can squeak over the 15% mark and pick off some delegates from both of them, which in the end will matter more, since it’s much likelier that Biden will be able to go the distance to the convention than Warren will.
The splits within the state’s congressional districts are also likely to be very close, though it’s possible that Warren will overperform in the affluent and highly educated suburbs of Boston, such as the 5th and 6th districts, while Sanders performs better in the more Vermont-flavored western part of the state (especially in the 2nd, which has a large mass of college students).
Oklahoma
Delegates: 8 statewide at-large; 5 statewide PLEO; 4 each in OK-02 and OK-03; 5 each in OK-01 and OK-04; 6 in OK-05 (37 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Biden 21, Bloomberg 20, Sanders 13 (most recent poll)
Oklahoma may be the Super Tuesday state where we have the least sense about what’s going to happen. There aren’t a lot of polls, and what we have shows a close race at the top between Biden and Bloomberg. This may in fact wind up being Bloomberg’s best chance to win a state, despite the fact that you wouldn’t think New York City and Oklahoma go hand in hand! That may be a dubious proposition, though, since even the most recent poll here predates when Bloomberg’s campaign started to fizzle in Nevada.
Interestingly, Sanders won here in 2016, but doesn’t look likely to replicate that this year, possibly not even hitting the 15% threshold. His 2016 result may have been simply a “not-Hillary” vote, given the state’s conservative-leaning Democratic electorate (a la West Virginia), and the state’s Demosaur voters have more comfortable choices this time.
Tennessee
Delegates: 14 statewide at-large; 8 statewide PLEO; 4 each in TN-01, TN-02, TN-03, TN-04, TN-06, and TN-08; 5 in TN-07; 6 in TN-05; 7 in TN-09 (64 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Biden 33, Warren 18, Sanders 13 (most recent poll)
We’re flying close to blind in Tennessee, where there appears to be only one poll, and that one is half a year old. That poll gives Biden a substantial lead, but it also appeared before Sanders started to rise in the polls in the late part of 2019, and before Bloomberg entered the race. The numbers from that poll seem plausible, though probably with Sanders and Warren reversed for second place, given how their overall trajectories have changed since then. However, it doesn’t have as large an African American population as the Deep South states; instead, it might be more similar to Arkansas and North Carolina—which means that Biden isn’t as likely to run up the score in the Volunteer State as he is in Alabama.
Biden is, as we’ve seen elsewhere, likely to do better in the more heavily African American congressional districts, especially the 9th in Memphis and, to a lesser extent, the 5th in Nashville. Sanders will be more concerned with limiting the damage, trying to stay viable statewide and eke out 2-2 splits in the more heavily white and rural eastern parts of the state (the 1st through 4th districts).
Texas
Delegates: 49 statewide at-large; 30 statewide PLEO; between 2 and 10 delegates in each of the state’s 31 state Senate districts (228 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Sanders 29, Biden 24, Bloomberg 17, Warren 13 (weighted average)
Texas both is very competitive and has a ton of delegates, so this will be one of the main states to watch. Sanders demonstrated a lot of strength with Latinos in his win in Nevada, and that strength seems to be extending to Texas. Two things to keep in mind, though, are that Texas Latinos tend to be a more moderate voting bloc than, for instance, Latinos in California, and that Nevada’s race, of course, was a caucus, so we haven’t seen yet how well Sanders does with Latinos in a primary. Texas also has a fairly high percentage of African Americans, mostly in its urban areas but also in its rural northeast, and black voters still tend to turn out to vote more regularly than Latino voters in Texas, so that’s a potential source of strength for Biden. Given Biden’s late momentum post-South Carolina, Texas could still turn out to be a close race.
The Houston and Dallas areas also have a large supply of well-educated and moderate suburban voters who are increasingly interested in voting Democratic (as seen in 2018’s Senate race), so it’ll be worth keeping an eye on what happens in places like Fort Bend and Collin counties. These could be sources of votes for Bloomberg or even Warren, who are probably playing toward the 15% threshold rather than actually winning. One interesting wild card as well is what happens with the geographically large but not very demographically numerous swaths of rural whites: Most of them, of course, vote solidly Republican, but among the few of them who don’t, we’ll have to see whether they break toward Sanders or Biden. And they punch above their weight, delegatewise, given how they’re distributed throughout the state’s reddest districts. An interesting quirk about Texas is that it assigns delegates based on state Senate districts rather than on congressional districts. That may be because Texas is one of only two states that has more U.S. representatives than it has state senators.
One side note about Texas: The vast majority of the state’s polling places close at 8 PM ET (7 PM local time), but in the El Paso area, which is in the Mountain time zone, they will close at 9 PM ET (7 PM local time). There won’t be a call until then (the race isn’t likely to be close enough for an early call anyway), though you’ll see Central zone results appear before El Paso polls close.
8:30 PM ET
Arkansas
Delegates: 7 statewide at-large; 4 statewide PLEO; 4 in AR-01; 5 each in AR-03 and AR-04; 6 in AR-02 (31 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Bloomberg 20, Biden 19, Sanders 16 (most recent poll)
Arkansas (like neighboring Oklahoma) gets a big shruggie: What little polling we’ve seen shows a multiway tossup with three candidates over 15%, and that most recent poll is from early February, which was probably the peak of people’s interest in Bloomberg. Demographically, Arkansas doesn’t really seem suited for any candidate in particular; most importantly, it’s much whiter than most of the other Southern states, but without having any particularly affluent or well-educated areas, which explains its dark-red turn over the last couple decades. It’s possible that Sanders could overperform a bit in the 3rd District, which has more college students and more Latinos than the rest of the state.
9 PM ET
Colorado
Delegates: 14 statewide at-large; 9 statewide PLEO; 4 in CO-05; 5 each in CO-03 and CO-04; 6 each in CO-06 and CO-07; 9 each in CO-01 and CO-02 (67 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Sanders 32, Warren 16, Biden 13, Bloomberg 12 (weighted average)
Colorado is pretty easy to talk about: Sanders is going to win here. For one thing, it, like a lot of the other western states, is demographically suited to him, with a lot of very liberal white voters and a lot of Latino voters as well. He also performed very well here in 2016, though he benefited that year from the caucus format, which is no longer in use. The more interesting part here will be the jostling to get over the 15% line, where Warren, Biden, and Bloomberg are all hovering. The Denver area has subtly become one of the best-educated metro areas in the entire country in recent years, which could presage some unexpected Warren strength here.
As we’ve seen in a number of other states, the number of participants who squeak over the 15% mark probably will have more of an impact on Sanders’ net gain than will the size of his win margin. Having to share the spoils with three other candidates would turn Colorado into more of a wash for him delegatewise than if he simply ran up the score against one other viable opponent.
Minnesota
Delegates: 16 statewide at-large; 10 statewide PLEO; 4 each in MN-06 and MN-07; 5 each in MN-01 and MN-08; 6 in MN-02; 7 in MN-03; 8 in MN-04; 10 in MN-05 (75 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Sanders 26, Klobuchar 24, Warren 14, Biden 11 (weighted average)
This was going to be Amy Klobuchar’s best shot at getting a win, or, failing that, a big hunk of delegates. But with her surprising Monday dropout, things have been pretty upended in her home state. For starters, she’s likely to still get a lot of votes, with her name remaining on the ballot. Also, it’s unclear where her votes will migrate to: The most obvious answer is Biden, who’s also in the “moderate” lane, but there are also a lot of Klobuchar/2nd-choice-Warren voters showing up in polling crosstabs. On top of that, many people simply don’t play along with pundits’ “lane” theories, and a lot of them could simply end up migrating to Sanders.
As a result, it seems likely that Warren and Biden will both end up clearing the 15% hurdle, even if current polling averages have them falling just short of that. Even if they don’t hit that number statewide, they’re probably in position to win delegates at the congressional district level, especially Warren in affluent suburbs (like the 3rd District) or Biden in the more moderate rural areas (like the 8th District). It looks likely, though, that Sanders will still emerge from Minnesota with the plurality of delegates.
10 PM ET
Utah
Delegates: 6 statewide at-large, 4 statewide PLEO, 2 in UT-01, 4 in UT-03, 6 in UT-02, 7 in UT-04 (29 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Sanders 28, Bloomberg 19, Warren 15 (most recent poll)
At first glance, it seems odd that Utah, traditionally one of the nation’s most conservative states, was one of Bernie Sanders’ strongest states in the 2016 primaries. On second glance, though, it makes a lot of sense: For starters, it was a caucus, and he tended to do best in caucuses. It’s also one of those states where the Republican Party is so dominant that most moderates just participate in GOP primaries instead, and that just leaves a Democratic electorate that’s pure distilled white very liberal voters. (It also helps Sanders here that Utah has very few black voters, but a growing number of Latino voters.)
Polling data here is very sparse, but what we’ve seen so far has Sanders leading, though not in as dominant a fashion as in 2016. The real action, as in a lot of other states, is who else can hit the 15% threshold and grab a slice of the delegates. Biden’s predicament in Utah may be that he’s too far back from 15% in the current polls to get anything out of the state, though the Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropouts may help him squeak over that line. Another thing to keep in mind is that we may not know Utah results right away; a majority of its 2018 votes were submitted by mail.
11 PM ET
California
Delegates: 90 statewide at-large; 54 statewide PLEO; between 4 and 7 delegates in each of the state’s 53 congressional districts (415 pledged delegates total)
Polls: Sanders 35, Biden 19, Warren 16, Bloomberg 13
Finally, we come to the whole Mission-style burrito: California, which has way more delegates (415 of them!) than any other state in the nominating process. Now, the most important caveat is this: While it’ll probably be clear right away that Sanders is winning California, none of the important detailed information will be available on Tuesday night, and it’ll take days, if not weeks, to complete the counting, which will help us to know who hits the 15% mark not just statewide, but also in each of the state’s 53 congressional districts. And the districts are where the real action is: Only around one-third of the total delegate haul will come from the statewide number. Many of California’s ballots are submitted by mail, and, as we saw in 2018’s House races, it will take a number of days to pin down the exact numbers.
Polling shows Sanders in the driver’s seat in California, which has both a huge Latino population and a lot of white very liberal voters. If you look at FiveThirtyEight’s polling average chart, though, there’s a significant Biden spike going on at the very end, concurrent with his national consolidation (California gets polled more frequently than other Super Tuesday states, so it’s likelier we’d see some movement here than in the other more sparsely polled states). A few weeks ago, the question was whether he’d even be viable in California, but now it’s become a question of whether he can hit something like 25%, which would go a long way toward eating into Sanders’ large net delegate haul from California.
Bonus!
American Samoa
Delegates: 6 at-large
American Samoa will hold caucuses starting at 9 AM local time, which is 3 PM on the east coast, so look for results sometime after that. Believe it or not, there is no polling of American Samoa; the caucus dynamic, perhaps, might help Sanders. But American Samoa’s voters punch higher above their weight than anywhere else in the country, given how few people participate (only a few thousand at most) in exchange for six delegates.
And who knows? Those six could end up being decisive. We’ll have a somewhat clearer picture by the end of the night of whether Sanders is on track to a clear plurality (if not majority), if Biden limited the damage and is well-positioned to keep climbing in future states, or if we’re terribly muddled and on track for a truly contested convention.