Via my Facebook feed and various political sites I read, I’ve keep hearing three things that are definitely true. The first is that if we nominate Joe Biden, we have already handed the election to Trump. The second is that if we nominate Bernie Sanders, we have already handed the election to Trump. And third, I’m told that nominating Elizabeth Warren means we have already handed the election to Trump.
I guess I should be proud that I have friends on such a wide (?) political spectrum rather than living in an echo chamber (I’m being a little facetious). But I did a few seconds of googling and as I suspected, easily found this Guardian article from May of 2008, “Fears grow that Obama can’t win” with the subheading “Analysts believe white working class Democrats will defect to McCain if Clinton is not the nominee”.
With senator Barack Obama poised this week to clinch his party's nomination for President, there are growing fears in some quarters that the Democratic party may not be choosing its strongest candidate to beat Republican John McCain.
Among other reasons, he has a “preacher problem” with those angry black pastors screaming that keep getting played on cable news over and over and you know, people worry that maybe he doesn’t share their values. Plus there were those messed-up non-elections in Michigan and Florida and Clinton is demanding those delegates be seated even though the DNC isn’t having it which is just going to fracture the party.
I mean, already there are people who simply will not vote for Obama if he’s the nominee:
There is also a growing fear that many of the women backing Clinton are turning against Obama. Clinton and her supporters have controversially accused their rival, and the media, of being misogynistic in the last few weeks of the race. A recent Pew Poll showed Obama's support among white women collapsing from 56 per cent to 43 per cent.
All of which means we’re on the sure path to President McCain.
Republican analysts, meanwhile, are surprised about how healthy their party's prospects look in a year when almost all indicators suggested they should lose. McCain remains competitive against Obama. He even leads in some key states. Indeed, some research predicts he could romp home against Obama.
I tend to think historical analogs are interesting but far from gospel. Things are true until they’re not — Missouri was a bellwether state until suddenly it wasn’t anymore. I keep reading articles about how centrist candidates have lost in the past (1968 is the number one with a bullet example) but we weren’t running against a controversial, radical incumbent turning off a significant chunk of the party. Point being, I don’t see there being a useful analog for the present situation so it’s all just speculation.
I am Blue No Matter Who. Hell, I freaking rang doorbells for g-d Jim Webb in 2006 and I certainly don’t think that highly of him, except for the fact that he gave us the 51st Senate seat that year. If we go progressive, I’m on the progressive train. If we go moderate, I’m right there. I really don’t know what to say to anyone who claims to be Democrat but thinks otherwise. The worst Democratic president in the world would still fire Betsy DeVos and I live for seeing that.
I’m just getting tired of the “Here’s proof your candidate won’t win!” ‘gotcha’ arguments. The case can be made for why anybody will lose. We just have to make a decision and stand strongly behind it. Excited to see what Super Tuesday brings!