With America’s pandemic-related death toll projected to soon be in the tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands by the end of April, we know for a fact that seniors will be the most heavily impacted by the disease.
Yet for whatever reason, seniors are most likely to be satisfied with the government’s response and support Trump at the greatest levels, including in the seven key presidential battlegrounds. We can see that clearly among the wealth of data that we’re collecting with Civiqs. Let’s take a look.
First of all, while just 41% of respondents are satisfied with the government’s response compared to 56% who are not, look at the numbers among seniors:
In fact, they are the only age group that is more satisfied than not among all the age groups we track. And to be extra clear, it’s not female seniors—they are net unsatisfied at 46-52. It’s old men:
As you might guess, this is because this is the most Republican demographic. And they've all bought into the idea that 1) the coronavirus isn‘t that big of a deal, and 2) that the government is doing just fine, thank you. Here are Republican seniors:
Terrifying, right? So what does this mean for Donald Trump? Well, his job approval among seniors is going up. That’s a jump from +6 net approvals (52-46) pre-COVID, to +10 today. Crazy, right?
That all means that while Trump is trailing the Democratic candidate in his reelect numbers by six points, Trump has a healthy lead among all seniors:
And, seniors in the seven key presidential states are all Trump-loving:
Arizona: 57-38 (+19 Trump)
Florida: 54-42 (+10 Trump)
Georgia: 60-35 (+25 Trump)
Michigan: 55-38 (+17 Trump)
North Carolina: 52-43 (+9 Trump)
Pennsylvania: 52-42 (+10 Trump)
Wisconsin: 53-41 (+12 Trump)
Seniors are, by far, the strongest pro-Trump age group. So two things will bear watching:
1) Will seniors stick with Trump as the death toll and economic devastation (401Ks!) ravage their ranks? And,
2) Why the hell won’t Trump and the GOP take the necessary steps to protect their most important voting bloc? Shit, if they won’t do it out of love and respect for human life, could they at least do it for crass political purposes? Why is it liberals screaming our heads off trying to protect this key Republican constituency?
As you can imagine, this situation is incredibly fluid. We’re seeing shifts in public opinion move much faster than is usually the case. Consider all these numbers as a baseline to where we’ll end up in the coming weeks, months, and all the way through Election Day.
We’re in uncharted territory.