The spread of corona virus in Denmark is almost halved since the country’s lock down in early March, the Danish Health Board says. And a very gradual lifting of the measures might begin before long
The country was one of the first Western countries outside Italy to announce sweeping measures on March 11th, closing schools, restaurants and bars, prohobiting public gatherings, sending all non-essential public employees home and asking private companies to let as many people as possible work from home.
This means that new hospitalizations now are presumed to be people who are infected after the measures were put in place.
And they work. The average number of new people every patient infect has dropped from 2.6 to 1.4 the Health Board has tabulated. Note that this conclusion is independent from the variations in testing availability over the period, as it is made from the number of hospitalizations, where practically 100 percent of patients in the country are presumed to be registered.
The conclusion is also supported by the fact that this winter’s wave of ordinary flu has vanished almost from one day to the other instead of slowly winding down like it normally does. The two diseases spread in much the same way.
This does not mean that the epidemic is over, prime minister Mette Frederiksen stressed on a press conference today. The number of ill patients is still growing, but the speed of the growth looks like it will be manageable for the health care system.
On the press conference she also for the first time expressed hope that the first measures might be lifted after Easter — but only if the current development holds, and only very, very gradually.
There is a couple of interesting lessons to learn from this.
First is the dividend of acting sooner rather than later. When Denmark locked down on March 11th it was far from the hardest hit country. The number of cases was still low and most of them were skiing tourists returning from Austria and Italy. But it had become evident that the virus had started spreading locally, and the case numbers were growing fast. The calculation that was floating around at some point which showed that lock down one day sooner would mean a 40 percent lower peak seems to hold.
Second, communication has been crucial. It has been pretty clear from authorities and politicians alike, and the vast majority of the population seems to have got it. This includes the authorities being open about mistakes in testing policies and changing them on the way, and on a few points having the courage to disagree publicly like on closing the boarders where the director of the health board openly stated that it was a purely political decision, but without getting into a further public row about it.
And third, the early reaction has allowed Denmark to actually keep a less strict lock down than some of the harder hit countries in Southern Europe. Most important private business have not been on lock down exept for the ones where audiences gather or which requires physical contact — concerts, bars, restaurants, cineamas and hair dressers, tatoo shops and the like. But shops outside malls have been open (if they have chosen so. Customers have been far between), and more important so has manufacturing, construction etc. Nor has a full quarantine been in place and people have actually been encouraged to go out and get some air — as long as they hold a sensible distance towards everybody else.
The people strolling under the flowering fruit trees on the picture is from the coastal area just a few miles south of Copenhagen city centre this week. Spring is well on the way.