To say that Joe Biden had a good night is a vast understatement. Buoyed by momentum coming off an unexpectedly large primary win in South Carolina and the consolidation of votes generated when Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Beto O’Rourke all handed over their endorsements in the space of just over 24 hours, Biden outperformed polls by wide margins in state after state.
As of Wednesday morning, Biden is the winner in nine states and looks set to win the still-too-close-to-make-a-final-call race in Maine. Bernie Sanders took four states, including the largest prize, California. And that’s it. For both Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg, any firewalls that were supposed to turn things around on Tuesday night failed. The result of the evening is definitely a contest for the Democratic nomination that is a two-man race, and Biden comes out of the evening with a decided edge.
On Wednesday morning, before the final decision in Maine, the Daily Kos Elections delegate tracker gives Biden 453 delegates to 382 for Sanders. Trailing far back are Warren at 50 and Bloomberg at 44.
In the contests decided on Tuesday, Biden dominated across the South, including taking a win in the second-largest prize up for grabs, Texas, despite polling well behind Sanders just days before the election. That was the story throughout the night. In states where Biden had always been in contention, he won big. In others where it had seemed that he was headed for a loss, he edged ahead. That included a come-from-behind win in Minnesota and even Massachusetts.
Biden even performed well in states where his campaign, which has been generally underfunded and whose organization might be described as … chaotic? underwhelming? pretty bad? … hadn’t really tried to compete. It was a remarkable comeback for a candidate who seemed to have peaked on the day of his announcement and trailed away from there.
In Texas, even Biden’s campaign seemed to show signs of catching fire, as, following the endorsement from Beto O’Rourke, Biden conducted a last-minute swing through the state. That helped propel Biden to a relatively narrow—but almost wholly unexpected—victory, even though Latino voters in the state gave much of their support to Sanders. That strong Latino support in both Texas and California means that Sanders’ campaign can also claim that its coalition also represents a diverse cross section of the party.
It was definitely not a good night for Elizabeth Warren. Despite strong fundraising following sterling performances in the last two debates, Warren did not translate that into momentum at the polls. She will now have to make the tough decision about whether there is any possible path to victory—even one that runs through the Democratic National Convention—because it seems clear that either Biden or Sanders is very likely to reach the necessary level of delegates to win outright.
For Bloomberg the night was little short of a disaster. His half-billion-dollar vanity project generated enormous paydays for ad buyers, but netted him no better than a third-place finish in any state. In Virginia, where Bloomberg invested more money and time than in any other state, he finished fourth, coming in behind Warren. While that has to be embarrassing for Bloomberg, in a way it’s a refreshing message that even if you can get your face onto television every 10 seconds across the nation, it doesn’t necessarily translate into a viable campaign for president.
After a night where a third of the delegates were handed out, Sanders took the state that was the top prize, but Biden took by far the greater number of states and delegates. Sanders is definitely still in this thing. But MSNBC pegged Sanders’ numbers as best where they’ve always been—with liberal white men—while women, even women who considered themselves liberal, swung toward Biden.
The race is a long way from over. Either side could fumble. Or catch fire. And how the growing crisis of the coronavirus that’s hitting everywhere in the nation will shift views around two candidates running with profoundly different views of health care isn’t clear.
But Joe Biden had one helluva night.