First thing I did after warming up yesterday’s coffee and giving a little scritch behind the ears of my ol’ dog Moby, was settle down to make sense of the delegate tracker.
I groaned when I saw Biden 71 delegates ahead of Sanders (my first choice) but quickly noticed a little silver lining that Warren (my Senator) was still 6 delegates ahead of Bloomberg. Then it dawned on me. The numbers are way too low! No big deal, but it is a big deal if people start gloating and despairing, flinging poo and tossing donuts.
Consider this a Public Service Reminder.
Be kind to yourself and to one another. And be patient for the missing math below the fold.
The most obvious takeaway from the grid below is that the bulk of delegates have been accounted for from states where Biden did terrific. For all I know, the unassigned delegates won’t move the needle dramatically, but if you consider how these states voted, it’s conceivable that Sanders will close the gap if not retake the lead when the calculations are complete. I toyed with the idea of making estimates, but since I started typing this, I looked at how other sites trying to estimate the outcome are reaching different conclusions. I’ll just stick to the facts.
state
|
precincts
reported
|
delegates
unassigned
|
%
biden
|
%
sanders
|
%
warren
|
%
bloomberg
|
california |
79 |
308 |
24.8 |
33.6 |
12.1 |
14.4 |
TeXas |
92 |
108 |
33.6 |
30.0 |
11.6 |
14.7 |
COlorado |
70 |
38 |
24.8 |
36.2 |
17.2 |
20.8 |
North Carolina |
100 |
25 |
43.0 |
24.1 |
10.5 |
13.0 |
utah |
71 |
17 |
17.1 |
34.6 |
15.4 |
16.9 |
MAssachusetts |
94 |
14 |
33.6 |
26.6 |
21.2 |
11.8 |
TeNnessee |
98 |
13 |
41.5 |
24.7 |
10.1 |
15.9 |
Dems Abroad |
0 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
MainE |
87 |
6 |
34.0 |
33.0 |
15.9 |
11.9 |
ALabama |
97 |
4 |
63.2 |
16.6 |
5.8 |
11.6 |
arkansas |
100 |
3 |
40.5 |
22.4 |
10.0 |
16.7 |
minnesota |
100 |
1 |
38.6 |
29.9 |
15.4 |
8.3 |
If anybody finds any math, analysis or wisdom to share, that’s what the comments are for.
[Edit- I thought this breakdown might be useful]
Consider where the missing delegates are:
- 531 delegates left to assign
- 363 from CA, CO and UT where Bernie won handily
- 114 from TX and ME where Biden won narrowly
- 14 from MA where Biden had an upset but three candidates topped 20%
- 13 from Democrats Abroad. Who knows?
- 27 from states where Biden had a romp