This past Saturday, I was postcarding with my local LD Democratic organization. We’re in King County, WA, at the northwest end of Lake Washington. Earlier that day, we’d heard the press conference with WA State and King County officials, following the first death from COVID-19 in the US, in Kirkland, WA. One of the speakers said, we’re not cancelling events...yet. I asked our chair, what are we going to do about the caucuses? (We use a primary to allocate delegates, but have caucuses to select them.) Could we hold the caucuses via Skype or other teleconferencing option? Answer was no, the rules require in-person caucuses, but the state party is working on ways folks can present their pitches remotely.
We’ll figure something out. The caucuses are internal party business, and we’ll get ‘em done somehow. However...we have this important election coming up — I’m sure you’ve heard…? And we really want to be able to get mass quantities of Democrats to the polls. WA is a reliable Democratic state for presidential elections...but that’s mainly due to King County — we wag the dog. If King County is on lock-down, what happens then? Will we still be able to activate enough voters to carry the state?
And what about other states — even if there are not yet known coronavirus cases, it’s coming. But even in the midst of an epidemic, we dare not let this election slide to Trump because we’re hunkered down in isolation.
So. Let’s go through options for GOTV, starting with the most dangerous, and working toward the (almost) entirely safe, and see what we can do. If this is TL;DR, the sections to look at are the first two, on large gatherings (“All Together Now”) and canvassing (“I Hear You Knocking”), as that’s where the safety precautions are, and the last section, on media (“The Revolution Will Not Be Televised”) — earned media, content creation, advertising — as that’s more on what we can do instead of the dangerous stuff...
Disclaimer: Don’t take medical advice from random folks on the Internet. These are only suggestions. Campaigns and party organizations should get advice from medical professionals with expertise in infection control.
Please post more ideas and recommendations and corrections in the comments!!
All Together Now
Rallies
Large-scale rallies are one of the best ways to get folks roused up, and draw media attention. However, they are also an extremely efficient way to spread a contagious disease. Folks stand in line for who-knows-how-long. They crowd in together. They yell and cheer. They buy food, use restrooms, grab onto handrails, shake hands, yadda yadda.
And if someone is later found to be sick, contact tracing is a nightmare. Even with an attempt at RSVPs or tickets, there may not be a reliable way to contact attendees later, especially if folks just show up.
Large gatherings have not yet been declared a hazard here in Washington State. But this is coming. Three tech meetups I’m in have cancelled in-person meetings. 350 Seattle cancelled their next meeting and replaced it with a webinar.
Organizations / campaigns that have an event already queued up should start making contingency plans in case local / state health authorities call for isolation.
Verdict: Kiss goodbye to large rallies anywhere there is an outbreak. We’ll have to find something else. Ideas?
Meetings, Training and Work Sessions, Watch Parties
Smaller-scale events, where the attendees are known in advance, might be (or seem) marginally safer. Attendees can be warned not to come if they have symptoms, or if they’ve had contact with someone who’s had symptoms. But people’s understanding of when they are at risk of being a vector varies. Some folks won’t want to believe they may have been exposed, or will tell themselves, it’s just my allergies. Worse, people can be infected and contagious before they are symptomatic. So warning people not to show up if they’re sick is not enough.
There are other ways to hold meetings. Skype and similar platforms can be used to run webinar training sessions. Hanging out on Discord or Slack or Skype while beavering away at some GOTV task can help alleviate isolation and boredom, and let folks get advice when needed. (I used to do SMEM — social media in emergency management — volunteer work, like scraping public reports from Twitter and Facebook, assembling information, etc. Almost always, we had chat running in parallel, for just this purpose.) Once one gets used to using chat for interaction, it can be almost as effective as in-person presence. There are free options for chat and smaller scale online events.
Parties are nice. But are they worth the risk? How about remote parties? People can and do have fun posting in a livestream chat log — we can do that too. Folks can all watch that debate, or election returns, or speech, together, and yakk about it online.
And maybe...if local Democratic organizations set up chat rooms, those can also be used to get more continuous activity going.
Verdict: Not safe, and there are alternatives. Start getting set up for chat and webinars and teleconferencing.
I Hear You Knocking, But You Can’t Come In
Doorbelling
This is the staple of GOTV. We love to hear when a candidate for local office goes door-to-door talking to everyone in their district. Stories of winning folks over during canvassing demonstrate that in-person contacts can be effective.
On the other hand, some canvassing goes like this: Ring doorbell. Wait. Ring doorbell once more. Wait. Leave literature on porch. Or: Ring doorbell. BARK BARK BARK BARK grrrr BARK BARK. Person opens door an inch, hanging onto dog. Grrrr. Icy, annoyed voice: Yes? Deliver prepared pitch. No thanks. Or: Ok, you can give me the flyer. (I’m a precinct committee officer — that’s a fancy name for low-level party scut worker. I do canvassing. A fair bit of it is like that.)
During an outbreak, folks will be extremely wary of people at their door. If we want to keep canvassing, we need to respect that, in addition to keeping both canvassers and the folks we’re contacting safe. How do we do that? (Note: See disclaimer above.)
Before we get to specifics, the A #1 rule is: DO NOT CANVASS IF YOU MIGHT BE SICK OR CONTAGIOUS. Ok?
Some recommendations apply even when there isn’t disease risk:
Don’t crowd up to the door. Ring the bell and back away. You need to be obviously far enough away that you’re not in coughing range. Even without an outbreak, people don’t want to open the door if someone might attack them or force their way in. If you are on a stairway or porch, carefully back down a few steps.
If the person wants to talk to you through their PA system or Ring doorbell, that’s fine. If they just want you to leave literature, that’s fine. Be prepared with an upbeat brief message that you can deliver while thanking the person and setting down your flyer.
Wear or carry something that identifies what you’re there for, at a distance. Folks will be less wary and more likely to talk to you if they know you’re canvassing.
Off-topic, but...if you were thinking of hanging your flyer up on the doorknob, or opening the screen door and wedging the flyer in the crack, or even propping the flyer up in front of the door, don’t. Lay it down flat, or put it under the mat with a bit poking out. Do NOT make it obvious that the person is not at home. Where I live, we have porch pirates and burglaries. People do NOT like it if something on their porch is visible from a distance. Be discreet.
But now there are New Rules:
Sorry, no shaking hands. Not only is that a prime transmission method, but you will make the person nervous if you try.
When you approach the door, you may find yourself doing any of the following: Opening a gate latch. Grasping a stair rail. Pushing a doorbell. Guess what — those are all possible transmission routes. Bring isopropyl alcohol with you (e.g. alcohol-based hand sanitizer, or rubbing alcohol), and clean your hands if you do have to touch something.
How is the literature being distributed? Are the canvassers meeting in a campaign office? Is literature being distributed at a local party meeting? The meeting-related cautions apply. How are you getting to your canvassing location? Are you carpooling? busing? If carpooling, are your fellow canvassers up on COVID-19 safety? If you are busing, sign up for alerts from your local transit agency.
If you are handling a flyer, will the person at the door want to take it? Should you pluck the flyer out of your bag with gloves? or a cloth? or are those just performative and no real use? Will folks want to pick up literature that you’ve left on the doorstep? I don’t have answers for these — it’s something we should get advice on. More on this later, in the section on paper mail.
One-to-One Personal Contacts
Just plain everyday interactions are...or used to be...a way to win folks over. Random conversations with people on the bus. Chats with store clerks. Church. Barbershop. College.
But if we’re advised to stay isolated, this one is a lot harder. Even now, folks where I live are stocking up on supplies, expecting that they will have to “stay home”.
Obviously, the need to do ordinary things like go to work, go shopping, go to school, run errands, etc. etc. etc. — this is going to be a core issue in an epidemic, far past any GOTV considerations. If we settle in to some “new normal”, and figure out a routine that allows going out in the community to take care of ordinary needs, then 1-1 GOTV can still exist.
Send Me a Postcard, Drop Me a Line
Paper mail
Whether this is safe depends on such things how long COVID-19 survives on dry paper, how much handling the mail receives during printing, addressing, and delivery, and infection control procedures during same. I can find no information saying anything about transmission via dry paper. Other coronaviruses can survive up to 9 days on non-porous surfaces like metal, glass, and plastic, so it does survive being dry. But I also find no-one worrying about paper mail.
In any case, mailed advertising doesn’t have that good of a reputation for effectiveness. A lot gets tossed as junk mail. However, there is...
Postcarding
This is the new kid on the GOTV block, and it is believed to be better. But, it’s better because those postcards are hand-decorated — the more so, the more they get noticed. Are you seeing the problem here?
As we speak, I have a pile of 100 postcards that I’ve hand addressed. Now I’m decorating them. That means I’m touching them. As far as I know, in spite of being only a few miles from a COVID-19 hot spot, I have not yet been exposed. But will the recipients know that? Should they trust that?
A separate issue concerns what to say. Postcards often are more local, and contain invitations to participate in local party actions. My postcards ask if folks want to become a precinct committee officer...and what us PCOs largely do is canvassing. Oops. I stopped adding a personal note about that on the current batch...
Verdict: Unknown. I’d like to say, probably safe, but the engineer in me nixed that claim. However, if you’re sick, don’t handle stuff you’re going to pass to others.
And now, we’re at the nearly-safe or completely safe stuff.
Signs, Signs, Everywhere a Sign
Yard Signs
Safe! Exactly as effective as before! I happen to be on the “sure, do yard signs” side of the effectiveness question. They help with name recognition. They can influence people who are wondering what all their neighbors have decided on.
Cheer Squads
Getting out and waving signs and yelling to passing motorists is safe for the folks you are trying to communicate with. Your little cheer crew, however, could transmit to each other. So, the same meeting and transportation cautions apply as for canvassing.
Billboards
This is a standard form of advertising. It won’t transmit disease. That’s about all I have to say. :D
I Just Called To Say…
Phonebanking and Textbanking
Safe, right? Right?? Can’t transmit viruses over the phone network… That’s true, but that protects the callee from the caller, and vice versa. It doesn’t protect callers from each other. It’s safe only if folks do the calling and texting separately, not all in one room together. Call parties leap straight back up to the warnings in the “Meetings” section above.
But we don’t need to do that. There are “dialer” apps that phonebankers can use individually, where the campaign can set up a call list. As for work parties, the calling can be made more social by having an online chat where callers can ask questions, take breaks, unwind.
As GOTV methods, phonebanking and textbanking remain exactly as effective as before.
Social Media
Safe. And, this may serve as a substitute for In Real Life personal one-to-one or small group contacts. Many folks are so used to using social media that communicating with friends and family online is entirely normal. Persuasion can be time consuming, so this is probably not for bulk campaign or party GOTV, but rather something folks can do as individuals.
A social media platform that allows directing posts to individuals can be used much like textbanking, with the exception that the communication may not be private. Non-private communication limits the utility, as one cannot send anything that needs to remain confidential (e.g. event details that t’other side should not know about). Private communication may require permission from the recipient.
Possibly more efficient are social media “events”, like AMAs. These can be interactive, and so have some of the one-to-one aspect. They can be scheduled and announced in advance, and supporters invited, so there’s friendly interaction along with any neutral or challenging questions.
Less personal uses of social media, like posting tweets out to whoever happens to see them, are more in the realm of content creation, which is covered below.
The Revolution Will Not Be Televised
The remaining GOTV and campaigning methods all involve media. That is, there is no direct, individual person-to-person contact. In that regard, they are safe for the viewer. There may, however, be contact involved in generating the material — talking to reporters, recording interviews, doing video production, etc. Unless one is alone, talking to one’s laptop mic and camera, or recording in one’s home studio, there will be risk to the candidates and people involved in media production, as for any work situation. For the following, assume all the standard precautions for not catching or transmitting disease.
I’ve mostly avoided talking going into detail about efficacy of various methods above. Most are staples of GOTV, and folks will have their own opinions and experiences to draw on. But here, because some of these are non-standard or contentious, I will talk a bit about whether they are effective and why we might want to do them.
Earned Media
Getting in the news can be good...if the reason one is in the news is positive, and if the media personalities presenting the news are at least neutral. But this is not, at all, something we can count on. Please, if you didn’t just now, go listen to Gil Scott-Heron, just up ^ there ^. Commercial media — especially major media companies — are not our friends, and they are not there to help us. Scandal and contention draw eyeballs — that’s what they’ll focus on. And as we saw the last time around, they will be drawn by the spectacle of Trump. Unless we are falling over our own feet, or getting bombarded with oppo, we won’t be the ratings draw that they want on the screen. Be ready to have a mic shoved in your face, but don’t count on this.
However, there’s something relatively new — independent online media. This is primarily an interview circuit. But some of the new media channels have very large followings. And the hosts seem to be more interested in policy and fair discussion, not just gotcha challenges about the latest oppo. There are multiple reasons for that: A big one is that they do not have the same time restrictions as commercial media — they are not looking just for sound bites. Another is that they get something out of having candidates on their shows and doing a better job of hosting than the cable networks. Rather than drawing advertisers and ephemeral one-time viewers, they want subscribers and patrons. So, emphatically yes, do try to develop relationships with independent media organizations and individuals. For down-ballot candidates, a popular indie channel’s support can be a real boost.
Content Creation
So if indie media is great, why not have one’s own indie channel?
Here, content creation refers to producing one’s own media content, and using content platforms like YouTube, Instagram, Medium, Paste, etc. etc., and even Twitter, to host it. Most platforms are free or have a low cost of entry.
Content includes everything from tweets and Facebook posts, through written articles and infographics, through amateur videos, up to professional productions. Unlike earned media, the actual content is under our control.
What isn’t under our control is whether our content gets recommended to viewers. This is usually controlled by three things: First is whether a viewer follows or subscribes to a channel. Second is how popular the channel is. And third is whether the platform allows paid promotion. There’s a chicken and egg problem — before the content / channel will be reliably promoted to viewers by the platform’s recommendation system, the channel has to become popular. So the existence of the channel needs to be announced and promoted by other means — mailing list, social media, other indie channels.
There’s no need to muddle through getting started with this. There are huge numbers of, well, YouTube videos about how to make YouTube videos. There is YouTube for Dummies. If you have a relationship with an existing indie creator, ask them for advice. If the campaign can afford it, hire a content manager for the campaign. Assemble a content production team. If that’s not in the budget, start with talking to your laptop. Or a cell phone on a stand. Look for examples of content that you like to get ideas.
What sort of content should you have? Here are just a few possibilities:
Interviews — have the candidate or surrogates sit down with (say) someone in the campaign’s communications staff.
Explainers — describe policies and plans in an engaging way. These could be screencasts or illustrative video with voiceover — doesn’t have to just be someone talking to the camera.
Event videos — if you’re doing events, you may as well record them. But go up ^ thataway ^ and read why events are problematic.
Impromptu encounters — If you are out talking to supporters, and run into someone with a good message or story, ask if you can record it. More formally, go out with a video crew and interview supporters.
Supporter-made videos — some supporters may be making their own videos. Ask if you can post a copy.
Ads — if the campaign is producing ads, host them on your channel. Which brings us to...
Advertising
Here, advertising is any content that one pays to have shown.
In the old days, this would have mainly been print, radio, and television ads. What used to be print advertising has migrated online, as paper publications switch to web publications. One could spend much time arguing over the cost-benefit of television advertising, which audience it reaches, etc. etc. The cost varies wildly with location, time of day, network, what show it’s with, phase of the moon. Given the steep cost of much television advertising, a campaign should be really sure they’re going to get a benefit. And given the production quality expectations from commercial advertising, a campaign ad may come up short by comparison. As with other standard methods, folks don’t really need me to tell them what the pros and cons are, so I’ll shut up now.
Web advertising is much cheaper, but more precarious. Ad placement services (e.g. Google) have, er, interesting formulae for pricing, that often involve bidding against other advertisers, and setting content or user profile options for where and to whom to show ads. Someone on the campaign will be stuck learning how to buy and monitor ad placement.
It’s not just static images in little boxes on web pages. More promising may be video ads shown on video content platforms like YouTube. Here, the need is to make ads that are short enough and engaging enough that the viewer won’t skip them. You get all the fun of bidding and option tweaking as for web page ads. But you’re reaching a different demographic from television ads, and likely paying a lot less. The ads don’t need to be as polished as for commercial television.
Let’s finish up with the most contentious form of advertising, namely, social media advertising. Way up at the top, I mentioned being at our local Democrats postcarding session, and hand-wringing over how COVID-19 was going to derail our outreach. The discussion came to social media ads, and I mentioned Fear of Facebook. One of the other folks said, we need to get over it — the Republicans will be doing it. I agree. Whatever one may think of Facebook, there are a zillion people using it to keep in touch with friends and family, post event invitations, host group discussions. While they’re there, they could be seeing our ads as well. There is nothing nefarious about showing ads to targeted groups of users. An ad for already-committed supporters who specifically want to know about (say) healthcare issues would be different from an ad aimed at (say) electric car enthusiasts that you hope to reel in with a message about climate change. Or an ad just for dog lovers that happens to show the candidate with their frolicking pups. Social media ads are inexpensive. As with web and content platform ads, someone will need to learn how to do it. Facebook has extensive instructional material just for political campaigns — I’d assume other platforms do as well.
I was going to end with one of my favorite disaster songs, maybe Eve of Destruction or Bad Moon Rising or It’s the End of the World as We Know It. But I think we need something more like this right now…
One Tribe