I’ve been writing extensively about the folly and predictable failure of Bernie Sanders “30% strategy”—literally, the idea that they could win a fragmented field and successfully contest a brokered convention with just 30% of the vote. (Here and here.) Check out Sander’s percentage in the polling composite: 29.3%
Sanders’ total popular vote so far in the primaries? 29%
Much polling predates the winnowing of the field, so Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren are still included in the composites. Not much polling since, though Morning Consult says that just 43% of Warren supporters now support Sanders—not exactly the wholesale shift over his campaign and supporters expected.
I’d bet it’s even worse for Sanders. While half of Warren supporters might prefer Sanders in the idealistic terms, this hasn’t been a campaign driven by idealism. Asked if they could wave a “magic wand,” respondents in this poll chose Warren over the rest of the field. But for whatever reasons—fear of electability, sexism, whatever—a large number of those people actually voted for someone else.
I’m willing to bet that in the coming contests, Sanders will struggle to break 30% in most of them, even if he has larger support among that electorate. In other words, people will be voting to end this thing now, rather than let it fester deep into the calendar year like in 2016.
You can sense it online and off—relief that this long, hard-fought and oftentimes contentious primary is all but over. Even Sanders supporters seem to be in those last moments of grief, just like supporters of other candidates underwent, as realization dawns that things just aren’t meant to be. Like John Kerry coming back from the dead in 2004, Joe Biden benefitted from a frantic consolidation as voters became eager to train guns on the real enemy. Then, it was George W. Bush. Today, it’s Donald Trump.
Things might be different if Sanders had shown the desire and ability to expand his base of support, but as I’ve previously written, that was never in the cards. Perhaps he might have had a chance if he and his supporters hadn’t alienated the Warren camp—from Sanders calling her a liar on national TV in front of millions, to his toxic supporters online. Actions have consequences, and Sanders’ campaign—happy with their core 30%—comported itself accordingly. He didn’t expand his message. He refused to meet with key Black leaders like Jim Clyburn because if they weren’t endorsing him, he saw no value in them. (The Black community reacted accordingly.) He refused to reign in his toxic, bridge-burning surrogates and supporters. It was okay to “other” and treat other liberals as the enemy, because his campaign also didn’t see value in them.
Bizarrely, no one looked at that 30% number and said, “guys, this is significantly less than 50%. Should we be concerned?”
So they set out to nurture and protect their 30%, and that’s where they’ve ended up. 29%, actually, but close enough.
Imagine if after his heart attack Sanders had passed his baton to a true progressive with actual crossover appeal, who also reflected a key demographic base of the Democratic Party? Or, imagine if he hadn’t run at all?
Now his supporters scream at other Democrats that “they don’t want health care”, but the problem is, they do, and they just don’t trust Sanders to deliver it. He doesn’t even support filibuster reform! It is literally impossible for him to deliver it. Base voters aren’t stupid. It’s not a question of ideological affinity. It’s a question of trusting a candidate to deliver it. Sanders never earned it.
Roughly 40% of delegates have been awarded so far (I’d be more specific, but California is still counting votes and I’m not sure what’s been allocated and what hasn’t.) Biden roughly has a 70-delegate lead. So mathematically, this thing is still a race.
The problem is, as you can see already in that polling aggregate above, is that Biden has catapulted to the stratosphere, while Sanders remains mired in his 30%. His biggest stronghold—California—has already voted, and Sanders got as much out of California (+57 delegates as of today) as Biden got out of Alabama (+34) and South Carolina (+24). And there are a lot more Southern states, and no more Californias. Washington, this Tuesday, is Sanders’ last real chance to win a state before the map turns bleak.
That dire picture is likely why Sanders’ campaign was all but begging Warren for an endorsement, thinking it would provide a burst of energy to their sinking ship:
After a disappointing Super Tuesday, Sanders is in increasingly desperate need of a lift, as Biden continues to accumulate support not only from moderates, but more liberal lawmakers like Arizona Rep.
Ruben Gallego, who endorsed him on Friday after initially backing Sen. Kamala Harris. A Warren endorsement would not guarantee that her base of
support shifts to Sanders, but it could provide a shot of adrenaline to a campaign stuck on the wrong side of Biden's momentum. “
It could be significant," Shakir told CNN. "There were many states where her impact on the race was crucial to the outcome. If she supported our campaign it has the potential to tip the balance in our favor."
Of course, Warren won’t endorse, because why? Biden hasn’t earned any such endorsement, Sanders has lost any claim to one, and it wouldn’t make any difference anyway. Democrats are finished with this primary.
Washington is the state to watch. Sanders won caucuses in the state 73-27—his biggest net-delegate haul of 2016. It’s by all rights a Sanders stronghold, and he should win it. If it’s close at all, it’s a sign that even Sanders supporters are signaling for him to exit. Not his hardcore base, of course. They’re not going anywhere. But other Democrats sympathetic to his politics, but more concerned about starting the general election now.
So that’s my read of the race today—resigned weariness. Most of us didn’t want Joe Biden, but that’s who we’re stuck with. Okay. Fine. Good enough. Now go get Trump.
The question isn’t “who will win the nomination,” that’s been settled. The question is “when will Bernie Sanders face this reality.” And to be clear, I’m not calling for him to exit the race. I wouldn’t do that until the math makes it impossible for him to win. I’m just wondering when he’ll come to terms with the fact that he’ll never be president. (And really, that’s okay. Most people don’t. But he’s still had a massive impact on our politics.)