Washington specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 89 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. The state-wide Washington Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella.
Quick Background:
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote 10 March. (Previously a caucus state).
Links:
State Party: at https://www.wa-democrats.org/
State government: at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/voters/
Early Voting: Yes/Includes mail ballots
Voter ID Laws/Supression: Easier To Vote / .
Basic Data:
Washington has has 89 delegates available. Of these 58 are distributed among 10 Congressional Districts (CD). The dustribution ranges from 3 to 11 delegates. The differences being accounted for by how each district proportionally voted in 2016 General Presidential election and Governors election.
Distribution In Washington:
The distribution of delegates for districts is as follows:
3 delegates each from 1 districts - CD4
4 delegates each from 1 districts- CD5
5 delegates each from 3 districts - CD3 CD8 CD10
6 delegates each from 3 - CD1 CD2 CD6
7 delegates each from 1 districts- CD9
11 delegates each from 1 districts -CD7
12 delegates from statewide - PLEO
19 delegates from statewide - at-large
Changes in delegate numbers from last cycle: Wahington has 12 delegates than last cycle. The difference is mostly due to Washington not qualifying for timing and neighbour bonus. So most allocation units have 1 less delegate. A few minor changes of up or down 1 delegate within the districts. Nothing much notably different.
Odd Number of Delegate Districts: With 7 allocation units/districts rewarding odd number of delegates, the potential for acquiring delegate differences is high.
Districts Based Numbers:
District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). A total of only 58 delegates are allocated on district basis. Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded.
The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. Districts with same number of available delegates are grouped. Due to large number of districts see section after the table for specific district if not listed on table. (See higher up or lower down for where each district falls. 15% threshold applies to at each districts for each candidate. The districts with 2 or 3 delegates have different thresholds.
{For those interested the DNC formula for fair apportionment, rounded up d=Dxt/T, where d= delegates earned, D=total number of Delegates available to be earned, t = Candidates votes, T = Total valid votes. This is based on maintaining ratios equivalent where d/D = t/T}
|
delegates
acquired
|
3 del
cd4
|
4 del
cd5
|
5 del
cd3 cd8
cd10
|
6 del
cd1 cd2
cd6
|
7 del
cd9
|
11 del
cd7
|
Delegate Allocation Threshholds/Triggers for districts
| 1 del |
16.7 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
| 2 del |
50 |
37.5 |
30 |
25 |
21.4 |
15 |
| 3 del |
83.3 |
62.5 |
50 |
41.7 |
35.7 |
22.7 |
| 4 del |
|
85 |
70 |
58.3 |
50 |
31.8 |
| 5 del |
|
|
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
40.9 |
| 6 del |
|
|
|
85 |
78.6 |
50 |
| 7 del |
|
|
|
|
85 |
59.1 |
| 8 del |
|
|
|
|
|
68.2 |
| 9 del |
|
|
|
|
|
77.3 |
| 10 del |
|
|
|
|
|
85 |
For 3 Delegates at CD4: Qualifying here is at 16.7% and not 15%. The first delegate is very cheap to acquire with just 16.7% votes. Second delegate available to whoever manages to get more than 50% votes. That final delegate requires a whopping 83.3% votes. Advantage can be clawed here by beinh ahead even if by jusr a vote. Most likely though this will split 2-1 since the varrier for 3—0 split of delegates is excessive.
For 4 Delegates at CD5: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. So would not produce any advantage. So again the sheer level of change in support levels required to flip districts is high. Without a spectacular success this is just going to play at 2-2. Only achieving three fifth of front runner is enough to stay competitive.
For 5 Delegates at CD3 CD8 CD10: First delegate at 15% and second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. For the candidate ahead these give an immediate advantage. 4—1 delegate split would need a sunbstantial 70% vote share.
For 6 Delegates at CD1 CD2 CD6: First two delegates acquired at 15% and 25%. third one at 41.7% and foutrth at 58.3%. That 5th delegate needs 75%. To stay competitive only needs roughly two-thirds of the leading votes. Most likely to split 3—3.
For 7 Delegates at CD9: In these districts first two delegates are acquired at 15% and 21.4%. Within the range of 35.7% — 50% the 3 delegates each will be allocated. That extra odd delegate going to whoever has that extra vote. Most likelt to split 4—3.
For 11 Delegates at CD7: (This is Seattle). Due to large number of delegates, a bit easier to grab delegates. Just qualifying gets you two delegates. Crossing over 50% marker gets a delegate advantage. Extra will still cost 59.1%. The range between 40.9 — 50 gets 5 delegates still maintaining competitiveness.
Exploring Statewide Results:
In the statewide, two different categories, usual 15% qualifying criteria applies to statewide results. Even if a candidate did not qualify in a particular district the votes from that still count towards the statewide results.
This is where most of the delegate advantages will be accumulated by the candidates. Here too the boundaries and trigger points apply. However will a larger bank of delegates (12+19) small changes are enough to trigger delegates.
PLEO delegates (12): For the PLEO category of 12 delegates. 45.8% to 54.2% breaks even. Slightly easier to accumulate advantages since it takes relatively smaller margin. Need 54.2% or better get advantage.
At-large (19): For the 19 at large delegates, qualifying gives 3 delegates. Each subsequent delegate requires roughly 5% support. At 50% breaking 10— 9. To get a 11—8 break would need 55.3%.
Looking at the margins:
Assuming an even spread of votes across all districts, lets look at they key percentages and what kind of delegate spread occurs.
Crossing 50%: This gives a split of 48— 41. All of the advantages coming from districts with odd number of delegates.
Crossing 55%: This does not give any better than the delegate spreadt at 50% of 48— 41. None of the key threshold/triggers have been crossed even though on paper it looks like a big 10% margin of votes.
Crossing 60%: Now we are moving towards a area that gives better results (mostly from those 6 delegate awarding districts which trigger at 58.3 ). Resulting delegate split 54—35. A nice 19 delegate difference.
Crossing 65%: Finally we are moving to substantial changes in delegate numbers. Resulting delegate split 58—31. A wholesome 27 delegate difference.
Crossing 70%: The delegates break, 61—28. A very nice 33 delegate difference.
Summary: In order to make up the deficit in national tally of delegates, a very large 70%-30% vote share would contribute only 33 delegates.
What do the polls say?
Fivethirty eight is average prediction is 44 delegates for both Biden and Sanders. Looking at the fivethirtyeight averages polls https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/washington/ for Washinton has Biden 35.5 — Sanders 35.1 The unaccounted for are Warren 14.4 and Bloomber 15.5. So there is a lot of room for consolidation.
At the current competitive levels based on on those poll numbers, the delegates will split Biden 48 — Sanders 41.
My personal Guess / Estimates Next:
This section is pure unadulterated Opinion.
Warren/Bloomberg Voters: My assumption is that Bloomber voters will go 90% for Biden and 10% for Sanders. From Warren voters, 50% for Sanders and 50% for Biden. Even if we assume all Warren voters go for Sanders, that still keeps the state very competitive.
While I expect Biden to get around 55% of the votes, it will not be a major delegate numbers changing with the split being 48—41same as around 50%. The overall performance will also be an indicator of how much of Warren support moved to Biden and Sanders.
As we have seen from the margins exploration we did earlier on, around 60% vote share is needed for a decent delegate difference.
My Biggest Takeaway:
We are now at a stage of mathematical exclusion of Sanders and heading into Biden safely gaining majority of pledged delegates. What remains to be seen is how much that majority will be.
Links Promotion:
And as always nuts and bolts: https://www.dailykos.com/news/NutsAndBolts and cogs and wheels: https://www.dailykos.com/user/DNC Cogs and Wheels/history
Other diaries on this series at https://www.dailykos.com/blogs/DelegateMathematics2020/history
